Retirement Planning - Lessons Learned

[goeduck]

I had to look up shillelagh

 

[Frankenkubota]

Whats a slillelog lag lshg? Lahg? Lagh?

in our case it was a stick.....more like a club, about 12-18 inches long with a knob on the end.

granny said she used it on leprechauns.

 

[Fuddy1952]

My Scottish ancestors wore dresses and blew goat bladders.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

Checking international business news this morning, there is much of interest to people's retirement savings as well as the functioning of the US economy. China is shutting down factories because of an electricity shortage. This is on top of the collapse of 25% of their housing market. Europe is running out of LNG because China is buying so much. The Fed may want to start reeling in the dollar supply, but not if the want the US government to keep functioning, not that we may have a choice. Either Congress gets its act together or the US shuts down.

I met with one of my investment advisors yesterday. It's that tingly feeling in the air.

This is the chicken little guy who thinks the sky is falling. His numbers are off. China’s energy crisis will shake the whole world – . | FR24 News English

Could China's energy crisis could prove bigger than Evergrande? Goldman joins Nomura in cutting growth forecasts

News that factories have been shut in parts of China are sending a chill up Wall Street's spine, driving concerns that the country's economic growth is going...

www.marketwatch.com

Supply chain delays are bad—China’s rolling power outages will make them worse | Fortune

Government orders to curb electricity use are leaving factories in the dark.

fortune.com

 

[JethroB]

Raising the federal debt ceiling debate, seems like it’s an annual event. It gives the talking heads something to breathlessly chatter on about for a few days.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

Raising the federal debt ceiling debate, seems like it’s an annual event. It gives the talking heads something to breathlessly chatter on about for a few days.

I hope you're right. They got past the Trump veto by writing him a blank check. They got major concessions out of Obama by threatening default. Biden seems inclined to leave the responsibility with Congress, which is where it belongs. If you trust Congress you are golden, but don't count on your SS check arriving on time.

 

[California]

Checking international business news this morning, there is much of interest to people's retirement savings as well as the functioning of the US economy. China is shutting down factories because of an electricity shortage. This is on top of the collapse of 25% of their housing market. Europe is running out of LNG because China is buying so much. The Fed may want to start reeling in the dollar supply, but not if the want the US government to keep functioning, not that we may have a choice. Either Congress gets its act together or the US shuts down in 3 days.

I met with one of my investment advisors yesterday. It's that tingly feeling in the air.

This is the chicken little guy who thinks the sky is falling. His numbers are off. China’s energy crisis will shake the whole world – . | FR24 News English

Could China's energy crisis could prove bigger than Evergrande? Goldman joins Nomura in cutting growth forecasts

News that factories have been shut in parts of China are sending a chill up Wall Street's spine, driving concerns that the country's economic growth is going...

www.marketwatch.com

Supply chain delays are bad—China’s rolling power outages will make them worse | Fortune

Government orders to curb electricity use are leaving factories in the dark.

fortune.com

Looks like its time for each of us ask the question 'If a downturn arrives and lasts several years can I afford to hold, in hope of sharing the rare extraordinary days that account for most of the long term increase in asset prices?'. Holding long term is what distinguishes above-average returns but not everyone can afford to risk shorter term losses.

Personally we can afford this gamble, our standard of living is mostly covered by SS and good pensions so the better-than-expected investments at this point will eventually go to the kids. Not too soon, we hope.

I think we'll hold. This strategy served us well in 1987 (22% market drop over one weekend, a couple of days later I put 50% more into S&P index, a few years later I was able to retire years sooner than I had initially planned), Y2k, 2008, etc. We hope to also share in future upturns. Basically we're betting on America overall. Alternately if things do go all to h- we can still afford to buy some income-producing assets that are then available at fire-sale prices.

Buy and hold is a worthwhile strategy.

 

[MoKelly]

Looks like its time for each of us ask the question 'If a downturn arrives and lasts several years can I afford to hold, in hope of sharing the rare extraordinary days that account for most of the long term increase in asset prices?'. Holding long term is what distinguishes above-average returns but not everyone can afford to risk shorter term losses.

Personally we can afford this gamble, our standard of living is mostly covered by SS and good pensions so the better-than-expected investments at this point will eventually go to the kids. Not too soon, we hope.

I think we'll hold. This strategy served us well in 1987 (22% market drop over one weekend, a couple of days later I put 50% more into S&P index, a few years later I was able to retire years sooner than I had initially planned), Y2k, 2008, etc. We hope to also share in future upturns. Basically we're betting on America overall. Alternately if things do go all to h- we can still afford to buy some income-producing assets that are then available at fire-sale prices.

Buy and hold is a worthwhile strategy.

Not just hold. Buy. Buy during the decline.

MoKelly

 

[buckeyefarmer]

Some good discussion.

 

[California]

Wow. Maybe there is cash somewhere to pay that dividend after all.

Evergrande chairman pocketed $8 billion in dividends while forcing employees to lend company cash | Taiwan News | 2021-09-24 10:08:00

Many workers borrowed money from family, friends to hand it over to their employer | 2021-09-24 10:08:00

www.taiwannews.com.tw

Forbes estimated his fortune to be worth US$27.7 billion as of March 5 on this year’s World’s Billionaires list, making him the 53rd-richest person in the world.

 

[newbury]

I hope you're right. They got past the Trump veto by writing him a blank check. They got major concessions out of Obama by threatening default. Biden seems inclined to leave the responsibility with Congress, which is where it belongs. If you trust Congress you are golden, but don't count on your SS check arriving on time.

But many of us don't count on SS checks at all.

Not just hold. Buy. Buy during the decline.

MoKelly

Catching a falling knife can be cutting edge.

 

[NorTracNY]

Anyone panicking right now or who is really worried about a large change in the market should pay that 1% to a investment advisor! I'm hearing lots of insane comments here. If you think you can time the market, then you're already filthy rich and smarter than anyone around or you are too emotional to make long term investment decisions. I hope for your sake that it's the former.

There has never been a time in my lifetime where there weren't "experts" predicting doom in the financial markets. How many articles have you seen published that predicted boring more of the same volatility in the markets over the next few months? You don't because they don't sell.

Will the market go down in the next few months? MANY times. It will also go up MANY times. Please go pay the 1% to a fiduciary who is obligated to have your best interest in the investment decisions.

 

[newbury]

There has never been a time in my lifetime where there weren't "experts" predicting doom in the financial markets. How many articles have you seen published that predicted boring more of the same volatility in the markets over the next few months? You don't because they don't sell.

But with the advent of you tube it's more entertaining.
I see the same experts predicting CRASH continually. Other experts predicting BOOM continually. Then later they claim how accurate they were based on their cherry picked statistics.

 

[California]

Better yet ignore the 'experts' daily rantings. Considered together, they constitute random noise.

Instead read all you can about what has worked long-term and invest accordingly. If you try to time the market you are betting against the whole world of investors because today's price for anything is based on the balance of up/down forecasts they believe.

My own choice has been mostly in a low cost S&P fund. Historic research says this has exceeded the results of 85% of retail investors. Participating in the top 15% is good enough for me.

(But the first funds I invested were from cleaning up and flipping rentals, and carrying back the financing, years ago. Active hands-on management will return more than passive investing - if you want to be self employed).

 

[Larry Caldwell]

Looks like its time for each of us ask the question 'If a downturn arrives and lasts several years can I afford to hold, in hope of sharing the rare extraordinary days that account for most of the long term increase in asset prices?'. Holding long term is what distinguishes above-average returns but not everyone can afford to risk shorter term losses.

Personally we can afford this gamble, our standard of living is mostly covered by SS and good pensions so the better-than-expected investments at this point will eventually go to the kids. Not too soon, we hope.

I think we'll hold. This strategy served us well in 1987 (22% market drop over one weekend, a couple of days later I put 50% more into S&P index, a few years later I was able to retire years sooner than I had initially planned), Y2k, 2008, etc. We hope to also share in future upturns. Basically we're betting on America overall. Alternately if things do go all to h- we can still afford to buy some income-producing assets that are then available at fire-sale prices.

Buy and hold is a worthwhile strategy.

This is just my personal, school of hard knocks opinion, but it has been my experience that the longer they try to postpone a downturn the worse it will be. This expansion has been going on since 2009, during which time the Fed has broken all the rules of a stable fiat currency, while the US Treasury has built a bonfire under the national debt. I'm very afraid the next downturn will be horrifying. A rapid recovery may not happen.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

Anyone panicking right now or who is really worried about a large change in the market should pay that 1% to a investment advisor! I'm hearing lots of insane comments here. If you think you can time the market, then you're already filthy rich and smarter than anyone around or you are too emotional to make long term investment decisions. I hope for your sake that it's the former.

There has never been a time in my lifetime where there weren't "experts" predicting doom in the financial markets. How many articles have you seen published that predicted boring more of the same volatility in the markets over the next few months? You don't because they don't sell.

Will the market go down in the next few months? MANY times. It will also go up MANY times. Please go pay the 1% to a fiduciary who is obligated to have your best interest in the investment decisions.

You are certainly free to do anything you want with your money. If you are at least a decade away from retirement with a secure job, cost averaging buy and hold will get good results. The last few years may have been a mediocre time to invest, but when the next Great Recession hits a lot of great opportunities will open up.

If you are on the verge of retirement or have already retired, sitting on your nest egg without actively managing it is very risky. Only 12 years ago, stocks and real estate lost 50% of their value in a very short time. Those who did not need their savings could ride through to the other side. Those who relied on savings to live, either because of job loss or retirement, got hurt badly. If they entered the recession leveraged, they got hurt very badly and often lost everything. There is no coming back from that.

There are various strategies to limit losses, but it's rare that any 401k advisor is going to tell you about them. Their job is to sell mutual funds, and that is what they will do. Most of them won't implement a stop loss, or even tell customers such a thing is possible.

 

[Steppenwolfe]

Wow. Maybe there is cash somewhere to pay that dividend after all.

Evergrande chairman pocketed $8 billion in dividends while forcing employees to lend company cash | Taiwan News | 2021-09-24 10:08:00

Many workers borrowed money from family, friends to hand it over to their employer | 2021-09-24 10:08:00

www.taiwannews.com.tw

Sounds like a capitalist to me...

 

[JasperFrank]

I guess if we all start buying gold/silver, it will solve something.

 

[ultrarunner]

Market Timing…

Real Estate often boom and bust… it’s been 11+ years of gains after the bottom dropped in my area.

Foreclosures on every block… 1922 bungalows going for 100k… those same homes now selling 950k

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Oakland/2736-Bartlett-St-94602/home/539447?utm_medium=share&utm_source=web_share&utm_campaign=native_dialog

It defies gravity especially in East Oakland CA…

If history repeats these 950k homes could be 200k foreclosures…

If we only had a crystal ball… old school I know.

Of course city owned abandoned homes we’re going for $1 in the 1970’s

 

[JasperFrank]

If we have moved everything off shore, where does it matter where you move to? I think that most people just do not get this.