Sloved the energy shortage problem

   / Sloved the energy shortage problem #21  
Re: Solved the energy shortage problem

GlueGuy, thanks for the info, but I don't think I can afford alternative energy just yet at those rates. Here in the south the local utility hasn't raised rates to the extent you are talking about, and we use more power to run the air conditioning.
 
   / Sloved the energy shortage problem #22  
Re: Solved the energy shortage problem

GLUguy, how does the wind factor in on solar panels??

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jim
 
   / Sloved the energy shortage problem #23  
Re: Solved the energy shortage problem

Glueguy,
Maybe you should ad a windmill into your engery plan. Sounds like you may get a little more power on the days the panels are not working well. I would think you could use most of the power system, just tap in a few fans.


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   / Sloved the energy shortage problem #24  
Cowboydoc,

Which nuclear power plants were taken off-line by Congress and are in ready to run condition? I am curious about this. I can't find any references to the congressional action on the web or in any handy reference.

The link http:// [url]http://www.nrc.gov/NRR/DAILY/psr.htm [/url] shows the NRC daily status of the nuclear plants and I only see one plant down for an extended period (Browns Ferry 1).
Some reactors have reached the end of their design life and are being decommissioned (e.g. Milstone-1, Yankee Rowe ...). Some were never completed (e.g. Seabrook 2). These don’t show up on the list so the 4 plants you are referring to must also have been omitted.


As for Oil company profit margins they are not far from the average for all industry.

In 1999 The fuel sector profit margin (net income divided by sales) was 4.0% and in 2000 was 6.7% while the all industry numbers were 6.7% and 6.4%. A quick web search for last quarter earnings reports for individual companies in the fuel sector shows that last quarter the result for Unocal was 7%, Texaco was 5.2% and Exxon was 7.6%



Ed
 
   / Sloved the energy shortage problem #25  
Ed,
By online I do not mean that they were up and running. What I mean by online is the allocation of funds and restrictive policies that are placed on them. I don't have the time to go back and find exactly when all of this happened. It was in the late 80's and the early 90's. At that time there numerous plans in place to go to nuclear energy, especially in the west. Congress effectively killed all of those plans with the restrictions that were put on them to essentially take all further consideration of nuclear power offline because of the cost prohibitive nature of it. You forget to mention the WPPS energy plants that were killed by restrictions. The plants still sit, having never been fired up. Hundreds of thousands of people had invested in this. Through a loophole made by the federal govt. the states were allowed not to pay back guaranteed bonds by the state of WA. I don't know enough about nuclear power to say how it should be handled. Maybe they were right and maybe they were wrong. I'm not sure how comfortable I'd feel with one in my backyard. My only point was that if they want to Congress can act in a heartbeat. They don't have to wait months and years to enact policies.

Now as to your figures. What was gasoline in 1999? Most places less than $1 a gallon. Now in 2000, up to $2 a gallon, we're up 2.7% or about 70% increase in profit percent from the previous year. I think that's right. Now Exxon is at 7.6% for this year in the first quarter, fuel up to $2.75 in Chicage, another 20% increase from the previous year. So in a year and a half Exxon went from 4.0% to 7.6%. That's almost a 100% gain. How can you say that is not criminal? The oil companies maintain they are not making anymore money but they are. If they were still operating at the same profit margin but were just passing the higher prices on to us they wouldn't have jumped almost a 100% in profit margin and would still be at 4.0%. Most companies would absolutely die for those kind of increases in profit margin.

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   / Sloved the energy shortage problem #26  
Cowboydoc,

I agree with you that it is a shame that the unfinished nuclear power plants were not 'mothballed' in a way to allow the construction to be restarted later. Seabrook unit 2 in New Hampshire is another example of an abandoned plant, which will never run. At the time construction stopped the preservation process would have cost tens of millions of dollars the utility didn't have. There was a good chance that the utility would run out of money before finishing unit 1. The anti-nuclear groups were doing their best to increase cost and delay startup through the courts.

If I remember correctly the WPPS situation was similar (but on a larger scale).

There were many changes in the licensing standards by the NRC through various rulemaking actions and through requirements imposed by the courts but I do not remember any explicit changes from Congress. Congress could have and should have blocked the obstruction of nuclear power through the courts. Most members of congress avoided making the potentially controversial decisions on nuclear power, leaving them to the administrative agencies and the courts.

If Congress had acted, it could not be a fast process. The administrative agencies (now the NRC then the AEC) would have to write regulations based on the new law. The law and the regulations would than be challenged through the courts. Eventually the investment decisions of the Electric Power industry would be altered. Government is not able to change direction suddenly.

The Three Mile Island accident happened and the public became overwhelmingly anti-nuclear-power. At that point it was all over. It was career suicide for an electric industry executive to propose a new Nuclear project. No nuclear power plant project has been started since Three Mile Island and it was a major fight to license each of the plants under construction at the time.
(I saw some calculations: there were well over 100 deaths as a result of Three Mile Island – the people were hit at railroad crossings by trains carrying coal to generate electricity which would have been generated by three Mile Island had the accident not happened. We are not always rational comparing risks. The Nuclear plant scares people far more than trains on an on grade crossing.)

The change in public attitude was dramatic, in the mid to late 1970’s there was little opposition to the Commonwealth Edison (Illinois) Nuclear building program. I had a summer job at the construction site for the Lasalle County station the summer of 1977. I didn’t see a single anti-nuclear demonstrator or read any calls to abandon the plant in any major Chicago media. Before Three Mile Island (March 1979) there was a demonstration at the Seabrook site every weekend and a few demonstrators on site every day. The Boston media covered the demonstrations and repeated calls to abandon the plant After Three Mile Island the Boston media became even more hostile to the project. (I remember one Boston Globe series of articles urging that the plant be converted to solar. The fact that the conversion was impossible didn’t stop the Globe from parroting the conversion plan.) The last Nuclear power plant under construction, the TVA Watts Bar plant, went into operation in September 1995, after 23 years of construction (and construction delays). The delays had pushed the construction cost to 7 Billion dollars.



One problem, which contributed to the problems with nuclear power plant construction, was (and is) that our legal system allowed the lawsuits, as well as the challenges in administrative hearings, to continue endlessly with many cases changing the requirements for licensing the plant. While in theory Congress could have reigned in the ability of the courts and lawsuits to bollix up the process, but Congress has shown no desire to fix the problem and limit any lawsuits. So we have the courts as our highest legislative and executive body. Over the last years we have had a Federal Judge set the city tax rates and run a school district in one city (setting the tax rate by issuing court orders ordering the legislature to set property taxes to the levels he selected). Judges running school districts has been common. A state Supreme Court rewrite state election law after the election and then a few weeks later rewrote the election law again in a way inconsistent with the previous ruling. Many lawsuits have been filed asking the courts to rewrite the firearms laws in ways that the legislatures have refused to act. Class action suits have become little better than a legal form of extortion practiced by lawyers, courts routinely approve class action settlements which give millions of dollars cash to the class lawyers and an (almost worthless) discount coupon to the (supposed) plaintiffs. For some of these abuses see http:// [url]http://overlawyered.com/ [/url]



On the corporate profits of the oil companies my point was that the 4% level was below the industrial average and was not sustainable for any length of time. Now profits are up, slightly above average now and will eventually head back down.

You are comparing the retail prices not the oil company margins. The oil company markup on a gallon of gas is smaller than the taxes collected by the State and Federal governments. ( 8% margin on sales of $3 per gallon gas is only $.24 per gallon. Taxes are over $.50 per gallon. )

By describing the increase in Exxon profits as 100% increase you are making a true statement while making a misleading statement. Going from a bad year with slightly above half the expected profit levels for an industrial company to a year with normal profit levels is not in any way shape or form ‘criminal’. (There was a year when I was laid off and took months to find a new job. My income that year was ¼ the income I had the previous year. The next year I got a new position paying 10% more than my previous salary. By your math I received an ‘unconscionable’ raise of 440%.)

Wall Street doesn’t see large profits in Exxon Mobil. If it did we would see a big increase in the stock price. The stock closed at $90 Friday up from a low in March but still below prices ($95) in October and November 2000. This is with the stock market overall at an eight-month high and news released last week that Exxon will lead a major Natural Gas development in Saudi Arabia. Even without ‘criminal’ profits we could expect Exxon to be at an eight month high like the overall market.

Either Wall Street (meaning the millions of individuals who make buy/sell decisions in the stock market) is right or your are right and we should all run out and get a second mortgage to buy Exxon stock, if it is making huge profits the stock must go up sharply. (Frankly I will go with Wall Street here.)




Ed
 
   / Sloved the energy shortage problem #27  
Re: Solved the energy shortage problem

The $3000 rebate from the state is $3000 out of tax payers pockets! This distorts the true payback period, and is nothing more than a subsidy of an underperforming option. Would be hesitant to make the investment, as the same people that created the rebate can take it away. Same as the federal ones years ago; they were popping-up everywhere then zap, no more new ones. If the motive is self sufficiency, personal philosophy or insurance against highly variable power rates then it makes since individually. Big picture I truly feel it is an energy supply and capacity problem. More supply infrastructure is the only true fix. Our tax $$ are already subsidizing half the population's existance and every other imagineable hair-brain idea....enough.

Re. big oil: Definately collusion. Why are none of them buildding new refineries to capture higher profit. They say the regulatory requirements make it prohibitive. BS. Look at the auto industry.....new reg's all the time, re. huge investment, yet you do not see companies saying they can't justify the cost. Actually, they view the challenge as a potential competitive advantage if they find the solution cheaper/faster, then simply pass the cost to the consumer. Big oil does not want change. Worse, when other industries see how successful their manipulation of the market is, guess what.
 
   / Sloved the energy shortage problem #28  
Dekker,
The nuclear power you are mostly right on. However, there were specific laws that congress inacted in a matter of four days that essentially killed nuclear power, especially WPPS. Stock and bond prices went from being the #1 rated in both interest and safety to the bottom of the heap in a matter of four days, due to restrictive regulation by Congress. This essentially killed the WPPS power plan. This was the most safest and state of the art facility ever built anywhere in the world. The new regulations were put up specifically to halt it's process. Though not in a bill that outlawed nuclear power but made it's use all but impossible. I agree with you on most of what you have said but it was congress that supplied the lawyers and the courts with the laws to shut nuclear power down.

As far as the oil companies I don't follow your math but that is fine. All I figured was profit margin percent of increase. A company would not go out of business if it has a positive profit margin. A positive profit margin means that after every single little expense that can be paid is paid then you have a profit. Now what you fail to factor into this are the bonuses of the upper management, which are at staggering levels. The lower management and blue collar workers are not seeing a dime it is all going to the upper management, ceo's, etc. That is right from the wall street journal from about two or three months ago. I never mentioned anything about buying stock or prices. The reason that they are not soaring on stocks is because a good percentage is going to management and not to stockholders. Everyone knows that there is illegal price fixing and phony markets being created with all gas, power, and such. There is no denying that one bit. That's criminal. That's profiteering, collusion, etc. I don't really care what the price is as long as it's fair. I don't know what the answers are but what is happening is wrong. There is not a shortage of fuel. This whole thing is a perfect example of the need for not having deregulation in the fuel and power industry. There is no altruistic behavior in corporate america. If there is a profit to be made they will do it with little regard for the general public. That is the theme of nearly all major corporations. There is no regard for people, it's all about the bottom dollar. Anyway I respect your opinions and not much more I can say on the subject.

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   / Sloved the energy shortage problem #29  
Re: Solved the energy shortage problem

Cowboydoc,
normally I have to dig really hard to find a topic that I disagree with you on ... but I certainly do disagree with your outlook on the energy "crisis" and what we need to do to solve it. Blaming Bush for any of this seems, to me at least, completely ubsurd. I believe he was either the governor or Texas (or not yet elected) when our socialist friend in the Republik of Kalifornia started with all their "not in my back yard" voting. Don't blame anyone except pandering California politicos for pushing deregulation and then capping prices .... that policy doomed the populace to an unsustainable free ride.
That "not in my back yard" crap always puzzled me ... citizens vote to not allow incinerators and then puzzle about why toxic waste is trucked to other states to be incinerated.
If 5% to 10% profits are obscene (which, as was pointed out are much less than most other industries) ... the what is this 28% tax rate I'm paying? Or the 50% profit that Microsoft makes?
I also suffered some heartburn over your comments about what the population would say if farmers and ranchers got together and started charging higher prices for their goods. Go for it!! But ... let's please stop all the marketing plans, price supports, handouts, tax breaks and other things that small business doesn't get. I can't believe how much extra everything wioth sugar content costs in this country because of price "supports" .... not that's obscene.
I don't wok for oil/petroleum, by the way ... but I did some 20+ years ago .... worked for a pioneering oil sand plant in Northern Alberta ... and that gave me quite some insight into where the money goes. Besides the huge amount of taxes that the government sneaks out of your pocket in the form of "royalties" (as they're called in Canada), oil/gas has to be one of the most capital intensive operations in the world. The plant has a "break-even" cost of $15 a barrel ... much worse than Arabian oil ... but all the money stays in North American pockets ... heavy equipment, pipelines, etc. You know ... that trickle down theory that Reagan got castigated for.
There's a better way of bringing the price of gasoline back down .... quit using so much of it (not you ... everyone) and the law of supply and demand will automatically drop the prices. But ... what are we doing in this country? Well ... we're making (and buying in record numbers) monster SUV's like the Excursion. Heck ... it's onviosu how little people worry about gas prices ... Toyota now has FIVE different SUV's! Motorhomes are competing with buses for greatest length and width ... you can buy (and people obvioiusly are ...) horse trailers with 20 feet of high-end living quarters at the front ... I'm sure dragging that around boosts your gas mileage.
And we keep letting the eco-freaks make all the rules ... "don't burn coal to make energy ... it's dirty". "Don't build nuclear plants, they're dangerous and dirty." "Don't put that wind machine up there ... it spoils the view." etc etc.
Yeah ... I'm not the slightest bit happy about the price I paid for propane last winter ... had 2 months with $500 bills ... compared to $200 the previous winter .... but I certainly don't blame it on Bush ... I blame it on that lamebrain Clinton, his eco-buddy Gore ... and their motley crew on nutcases who set the energy policies we're living with today. This situation didn't occur overnight ... it has been escalating ever since 1992 .. when the energy department became subsumed by the environment department. Now we have half the planet set aside for dung beetles, no roads allowed into any of these "monuments" ... and a pee-poor relationship with those that are selling us oil. Let's put the blame where it belongs ..
Oh ... one last thing ... I don;t remwember whether it was you or one of the other "blame Bush" crew that said they'd have to vote for the Bore in '94 .... but think back to last year when we had the first boost in the gas rate and the eco-freak himself ... who wrote in his book that fantasically high gas prices would be good for the environment ... took credit for relaesing some of our "reserve" ... which benefited some oil companies ... but not the consumer. Wonder if Bush put him up to it, huh?
Hope it doesn't sound like I'm peeved at you ... I'm not .... just want to present the case that there's many caises and you seemingly ignored most of them and blamed obne poor schmuck that was dumb enough to care and try to do some LASTING good.

too bad that common sense ain't
 
   / Sloved the energy shortage problem #30  
Re: Solved the energy shortage problem

Well said Wingnut...I agree.

Rick
 

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