Some developers are swine.

[DarkBlack]

Can you help me out with ideas on where people are supposed to live?

Why do we actually have this problem in the first place?
We have a declining birth rate… , yet an increasing population to deal with….

 

[ultrarunner]

I believe that they are. They should be part of any deed.

I’ve bought 2 homes with deed restrictions stating no person of mongoloid or negro race may reside on property unless in the capacity of domestic servant… these are 1945 tract homes of 3 bedroom, 1 bath of 1050 square feet near the industrial section in Oakland CA.

Brothers farm deed restriction says no hog farming.

 

[lman]

Why do we actually have this problem in the first place?
We have a declining birth rate… , yet an increasing population to deal with….

That depends on who you ask. It's kind of like when a city says they need more housing and when you drive through, you see all of the empty abandoned houses that could be used.

 

[paulsharvey]

That depends on who you ask. It's kind of like when a city says they need more housing and when you drive through, you see all of the empty abandoned houses that could be used.

Thats a totally different topic; but people dont want to live in a urban center. Its often not worth the trouble of rehabbing(not just repair, modernizing too) 50-70 year old homes; 2nd homes, vacation homes; homes in undersireable areas, immigration, shifting population dynamics, ect. He'll, you want, even down to divorce, and dozens of other reasons.

I'll bet 70 years ago, a household probably averaged like 5 people; now its probably closer to 1.7.

Edit: its 2.5 now; it was 3.14 in 1970; it was 3.37 in 1950

 

[paulsharvey]

Past 8 or so years, there has been a big trend of people wanting to get their 2-10 acre homestead/hobby farms, close enough to town to commute. Another factor is the rise, and partial fall of telecommuting. Will there be a reversal in 10 years, maybe? Its not just a game of 330m need 132m homes; they have to be the right homes, in the right places, and they have to be priced at a level that they are somewhat accessible.

Add to that the on going, and accelerating die off of boomers, and what does that do? Boomers kids should all be grown and well established, meaning they dont want/need the parents house.

 

[paulsharvey]

I could easily see in 10-20 years there being a large scale moving back to medium sized urban centers, and people dont wanting to drive 1h+ to work? But, with technology, and say and auto driving car, maybe 2h commutes arent a big deal, you take a nap, watch TV, ect on the drive home?

 

[ultrarunner]

Affordability is often not the issue as much as desirability…

Seen this countless times mapping out what someone could afford and this includes good solid basic homes but wrong location for school, shopping, amenities, crime stats, etc.

Myself and several friends were determined to own and we bought dumps… I bought the least expensive single family home in a metro of millions because it was all I could afford… best single purchase ever dollar for dollar and gave me my start… still own it today.

 

[EscapedSuburbia]

One issue I see for the younger generation is the lack of starter homes. The last place I lived was growing like gangbusters so land was very valuable. A developer won't build modest 2 or 3 bedroom ranches when the same lot can hold a 2 story 3500 sq ft McMansion with a lot higher price and profit margin. There are no homes in the county I just moved out of that my grown children could afford to buy. I don't have a solution either.

 

[paulsharvey]

One issue I see for the younger generation is the lack of starter homes. The last place I lived was growing like gangbusters so land was very valuable. A developer won't build modest 2 or 3 bedroom ranches when the same lot can hold a 2 story 3500 sq ft McMansion with a lot higher price and profit margin. There are no homes in the county I just moved out of that my grown children could afford to buy. I don't have a solution either.

You want real solution? People need to get over the 1970s/1980s idea of what manufactured housing is. Still FAR from cheap, but for about $180,000; another $50,000 in land, another $50,000 in well/septic/clearing/driveway; you have nice, functional housing that lasts, for $280k. You got to get past the stigma of a "trailer", and get past idiots like Dave Ramsey (trailers always go down in value...). Plenty of manufactured homes, and modular homes reselling over $400-500k, if nice, on nice property, landscaped, ect; and they do go up in value; maybe not as fast as site build, but they do appreciate.

The far worse solution, Khrushchvekas. Not from a political statement, but from a 4-5 story, dense housing, in centralized locations... The US version, Farmers Home Administration. Company i worked for, got their start building those; 24-48 unit, single or 2 story apartments in rural smaller-medium sized towns?


Edit: $180k is a medium to nicer, 3/2 double wide. You can absolutely get them down closer to $150k if you dont get tape and texture walls and cieling. On the other end, some of the true premium ones, you can be well over $300k.

 

[paulsharvey]

As a comparison, if you haven't ever; you should tour one of these production "starting from the low $300s" developments... First, by the time you pay builder mandated upgrades, probably cheapest ones will be $350. For that $350, you're getting laminate counter tops, vinyl bathroom floors, fiberglass one piece showers, ect. Honestly, a notch below what we used to build in low income apartments....