Buying Advice The Bathtub Curve of New Product Quality

[fried1765]

I think this theory is what keeps the price of low hour used tractors near the price of new.

I bought my M9540 new. Have had no problems with it in 1500hrs. If asked to price it, would be within $5K of what I paid.

I suspect that my now 49 year old Ford 3400 TLB might bring more now than when I bought it used 33 years ago.
Only has 1850 original hours now, with all new hoses and repaint, including decals, done two years ago.
Runs like new, and looks like new.
I am thinkin about selling it...but just thinkin!

 

[ovrszd]

I suspect that my now 49 year old Ford 3400 TLB might bring more now than when I bought it used 33 years ago.
Only has 1850 original hours now, with all new hoses and repaint, including decals, done two years ago.
Runs like new, and looks like new.
I am thinkin about selling it...but just thinkin!

Yep. But I believe inflation would be driving that.

EPA's regulations have inflated the cost of new equipment over the past ten years. Dramatically over the past five. That would contribute the most to my tractor's value. It's pre DEF.

 

[fried1765]

Yep. But I believe inflation would be driving that.

EPA's regulations have inflated the cost of new equipment over the past ten years. Dramatically over the past five. That would contribute the most to my tractor's value. It's pre DEF.

"It's pre DPF"
Exactly..... why I will NEVER buy a NEW tractor!

 

[ovrszd]

"It's pre DPF"
Exactly..... why I will NEVER buy a NEW tractor!

You should never say never.

 

[fried1765]

You should never say never.

You are absolutely correct, but.......
I'm thinkin......why would a 78 year old EVER buy a NEW tractor?
I will yield....maybe highly unlikely, would be excactly correct.

 

[ovrszd]

You are absolutely correct, but.......
I'm thinkin......why would a 78 year old EVER buy a NEW tractor?
I will yield....maybe highly unlikely, would be excactly correct.

There ya go. Always leave the door ajar.

 

[KennyG]

That video is correct in concept but the way he drew it is misleading. The Phase 2 period is not flat or decreasing (as he drew it) for complex machines. It is slightly rising. The difference in magnitude between Phase 1 and 2 is more or less as he drew it for electronic circuits but is much less for cars, tractors, etc. that have lots of moving parts. Also, it important to realize that Phase 1 is within the warranty period, so there is no financial risk associated with early failures.

I don't think Phase 3 rises at anything like the curve he drew. The failure curves I have seen have a much smaller change in slope late in life.

 

[tradosaurus]

All the video suggested to me was that extended warranties are a waste of money.

 

[ovrszd]

All the video suggested to me was that extended warranties are a waste of money.

I've always thought that. When you get far enough down the road that you are at high risk of catastrophic failure you won't be able to get warranty.

 

[dnw64]

...Phase 1 is within the warranty period, so there is no financial risk associated with early failures.

Time is money.

So they "cover" the cost of repairs. It doesn't cover A) the frustration of dealing with a problem on a new piece of equipment that shouldn't break, or B) the time you have to take away from whatever it was that you would have been doing if you weren't working on fixing the problem, or C) lost revenue from down time in the case of a business.