The Glut Cometh

[Jstpssng]

A bit too rustic for my tastes.

That’s the thing about a power outage. To some it’s a catastrophe while to others it’s an adventure.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

A bit too rustic for my tastes.

Yep, I'm a country boy for sure. I don't abandon 19th century and early 20th century technology because it requires a little work. The nice thing about solutions invented before electricity is that they always work. My wood stove is a home utility that provides many kw equivalent of energy any time I need it, and makes use of nature's solar collectors to concentrate the fuel. When the power goes out, the comfort of my home doesn't change, and outdoors it turns into a Currier and Ives print.

 

[Dftodd]

A bit too rustic for my tastes.

We lost power for a week after a tornado. City water, so we had cold showers unless we decided to shower at the gym.

We were stranded for a couple days till we could get the generator from my father in law.

You would be surprised what you can cook on a propane grill with a side burner

 

[5030]

having a diesel standby here, we always have juice, just it becomes more costly at times.

 

[5030]

Yep, I'm a country boy for sure. I don't abandon 19th century and early 20th century technology because it requires a little work. The nice thing about solutions invented before electricity is that they always work. My wood stove is a home utility that provides many kw equivalent of energy any time I need it, and makes use of nature's solar collectors to concentrate the fuel. When the power goes out, the comfort of my home doesn't change, and outdoors it turns into a Currier and Ives print.

I'll pass. When the outside turns into a Currier and Ives print, I know I'll have to fire up the Kubota and plow us out as we live 2 miles from the pavement on a remote dirt road.

I'm not into solar but the power goes out out here, it's always out for a while which is why we have a diesel backup hooked to the 500 gallon bulk tank.

My only 'compromise' is the way we heat, we heat with bio mass and have for the last 30 years.

 

[5030]

There was a great article a few months back detailing how and why they expect the used car market to tank

Fine with me. I only buy low mileage off lease used vehicles anyway. Not about to pay the inflated ridiculous price new cars are today. Can usually get them at least a 50% off discount.

 

[jyoutz]

And housing ....

Housing Market Decline Begins as Consumer Confidence Crashes​

New single-family home sales have dropped to their lowest level since April 2020.

U.S. Facing 'Perfect Storm' for 2008-Like Housing Crisis: Economist​

Economist Jose Torres predicted that within the next few years, housing prices could drop up to 25 percent.


Some people were paying stupid prices and I don't feel sorry if they get screwed.

Maybe it'll get lumber back to the sane area.

Stumpage prices are already back to where they were 5 years ago. Lumber prices are dropping but still high. Lumber prices follow housing starts.

 

[Jstpssng]

Stumpage prices are already back to where they were 5 years ago. Lumber prices are dropping but still high. Lumber prices follow housing starts.

Lumber sales also can be a harbinger of what's to come in the next 6-18 months.
That doesn't necessarily mean the sky is falling though, anything as hot as the housing and retail markets have been in the last 2 years has to cool off sometime.

 

[Torvy]

The housing market is regional. Looking at it nationally in a country as large as the US tends to hide causes and is more click bait than anything else. There will be overlap, but the effects will be less in areas with a better core economy.

 

[Tinhack]

Fine with me. I only buy low mileage off lease used vehicles anyway. Not about to pay the inflated ridiculous price new cars are today. Can usually get them at least a 50% off discount.

I was all set to buy a 2019 Ford Fusion Titanium off-lease for a few pennies over $20k back in 2020. I him-hawed on it for a week, and it sold just before I called the dealer. That was just about the time Covid was taking ahold. The same car today, going on four years older, is selling for about $25k. I decided I'd just hold onto my old GMC pickup.

 

[Tinhack]

Lumber sales also can be a harbinger of what's to come in the next 6-18 months.
That doesn't necessarily mean the sky is falling though, anything as hot as the housing and retail markets have been in the last 2 years has to cool off sometime.

Except around here. A new development went in just down the road from me at the start of Covid. 3/4ac. lots started at $84,600 and went to $125,000 for 1.2ac lots. The homes going in there practically cover the entire lot. Homes and prices like that were unheard of in this rural community. The building has continued all through the Covid crisis and still going strong. I seriously doubt you'll see prices returning to a pre-covid level. The Feds just raised interest rates by another .75%. Don't be looking for bargains any time soon. The only thing that will cool this now is a war with China or Russia.

 

[shooterdon]

The increase in interest rates will dial down prices and home sales. It will also affect construction activity. And if, as I expect, wage increases lag, people will have less buying power as inflation continues. Look for more companies laying off workers as well.

Not a pretty looking future for most.

But it may be a very good thing for Americans. Most are not living in the real world and suffering is an excellent wake up call. I hope not to see $50k cars lined up at the food bank some day. I stopped giving to the food bank when that happened.

 

[jyoutz]

The housing market is regional. Looking at it nationally in a country as large as the US tends to hide causes and is more click bait than anything else. There will be overlap, but the effects will be less in areas with a better core economy.

True, but the wood products industry tends to do a national outlook with regional breakdowns. Lumber is sold across regions.

 

[tacticalturnip]

I hope not to see $50k cars lined up at the food bank some day. I stopped giving to the food bank when that happened.

$50k seems nothing more than the high-end of average vehicle prices. I was at a RAM dealer the other day and the brand new version of my '18 half-ton was $60k, and it's just a mid-range pickup. It was a bit painful.

 

[ultrarunner]

For 20 years I drove the $800 Plymouth I bought in high school...

My one new car ever was 30k...

The food bank pictures here with late model high end cars are cause for reflection...

But then I managed Section 8 rentals and several if the tenants only buy new cars... so it is possible to qualify for assistance and still buy brand new vehicles.

 

[MossRoad]

I don’t doubt what people see at their own locations. I know different areas have different issues.

Mostly what we see at our food bank are pretty hard used cars. The few that are newer looking are people that are picking up orders to deliver to others who can’t drive themselves for various reasons.

 

[ultrarunner]

On a related note one of my friends owns a carwash with detail services.

It is a good size operation so much so the local police spoke to him about traffic obstruction due to the high volume of customers...

Even during pandemic he had good business when allowed to be open.

The last 6 weeks he reports business down 60% and those coming in are opting for basic service...

Of course home sales here are languishing from just 90 days ago with price reductions the norm... and inventory up.

 

[5030]

decided I'd just hold onto my old GMC pickup.

Smart move for now. Last off lease buggy I bought was a 14 Ford Focus SE Hatch with a 5 speed and I bought it for 10 cash with 22K actual miles from a Ford dealer (had the balance of the factory warranty left which I extended an extra 3 years because of all the electronics). Never had any issues with it. Still have it, excellent car and it gets 40 mpg too. Sticker was 24K btw. They also had an off lease RS Focus that I almost got instead but my wife said no. She knows I have a lead foot and would probably lose my license with the RS which is a supercar in econobox clothing.

Bought my wife a Suburban the same way, Loaded LTZ and gave 16 for it with 62K miles on it. They retail for 80+ today.

Now is not the time to peruse the used-off lease market but it will come back around in time so long as this current wacko administration don't do another Obama 'cash for clunkers' deal.

 

[cqaigy2]

I don’t doubt what people see at their own locations. I know different areas have different issues.

Mostly what we see at our food bank are pretty hard used cars. The few that are newer looking are people that are picking up orders to deliver to others who can’t drive themselves for various reasons.

I'd characterize our food banks to look similar. If i saw nice cars there and people that owned or were paying on them, at the food bank, i'd probably take a dim view until i actually thought about how a newly unemployed family might look. I wouldn't expect them to sell their nice vehicle that they may need to get employment, for a lose, just because i looked sideways at them at the food bank.

 

[5030]

I stopped giving to the food bank when that happened.

So did we actually. When you see some supposedly 'up against it' people in line in their Escalade with the ac running while waiting for a handout, it really sours your 'give for charity' attitude.

I don't make any charitable contributions anymore. Charity begins (and stays) at home in my opinion and that includes political donations to various candidates who pander for money constantly. They all go in the round file, via the shredder.

I do donate to the Heritage Foundation and I do receive the Imprimis news letter. Don't have an issue with them or Hillsdale College either.

My wife and I are charitable people but it appears that a lot of people are abusing that so we quit.