The Glut Cometh

   / The Glut Cometh #81  
What is concerning is the speed in increase and the amount of increase over the past two years coupled with the willingness to waive inspections and appraisal contingencies. Prior to 2008, there were people pointing to trouble to come who went ignored until the meltdown came. Currently, a study published by the Dallas fed reached the opinion of over exuberance in many housing markets. I can understand the race to borrow and buy when home mortgages can be had at less than 3 percent over 30 years when the inflation rate is officially 9 percent. But for most, homes are shelter. When the overall ecominics of living get enough out of whack to be sustainable, corrections are coming.
 
   / The Glut Cometh #82  
What is concerning is the speed in increase and the amount of increase over the past two years coupled with the willingness to waive inspections and appraisal contingencies. Prior to 2008, there were people pointing to trouble to come who went ignored until the meltdown came. Currently, a study published by the Dallas fed reached the opinion of over exuberance in many housing markets. I can understand the race to borrow and buy when home mortgages can be had at less than 3 percent over 30 years when the inflation rate is officially 9 percent. But for most, homes are shelter. When the overall ecominics of living get enough out of whack to be sustainable, corrections are coming.
For many today's high price would be looked back as a bargain... or so the thinking goes... jump on while you can before prices increase.

We have Panda Express here and like just about wherever you look is a sea of help wanted signs...

Panda ads say work here and earn $19 to $30 hourly plus benefits... Jack in the Box starting $16 no experience...

Balance that with Target Date Retirement accounts down 20% ???
 
   / The Glut Cometh #83  
One of the big selling points when I bought my present house was that it had a gravity-fed water system, and propane cookstove & hot water. Don't get city water pressure by a long shot, only ~20psi, but it's enough to do anything we need to do, including shower. The PO didn't have a woodstove, but that got put in first year we lived here. The house itself is almost 200 years old, and I don't think electricity came thru here until the 1930s, so for the first 100 years of this house's existence the residents got along just fine.
We have to fire up a generator to shower, but can get a bath pretty easily by heating a 12 gallon laundry tub of water on top of the wood stove, then tempering it with cold water in the tub. I don't mind running a generator for a couple hours a day for electrical stuff, but hate generator noise with a passion. One of the delights of living here is the silence. The only sounds are the wind in the trees, the water in the creek, and the assorted chirps, hoots, and grunts of the local wildlife. A generator wrecks that.
 
   / The Glut Cometh #84  
Please stop bragging about how little you all pay in property taxes. It's making this NYer cry.
Last house 2,000sqft on two acres, property taxes were $950/ year
 
   / The Glut Cometh #85  
We have had one for a few years now and love it, one of the new gimmicks that actually works, bit like the microwave.
Thanks for your thoughts. I noticed the daughter got one at their shower last night.
 
   / The Glut Cometh #86  
My rule of thumb has been that house prices should reflect 3x the neighborhood median gross annual income, but that was from the days when a 7% or 7.5% mortgage was the norm. Higher incomes can exceed that because other expenses don't increase rapidly as your income rises.

The sensible thing has always been to buy what you can afford and pay for it. We have been mortgage-free for 14 years, and that has gone a long way toward a comfortable retirement.
 
   / The Glut Cometh #87  
Last house in NJ .6 acre, 3200 square feet , $16000/year (now up a few thousand to $19K according to my old neighbor.)
In PA my prop taxes went up about $100 since I moved here almost 6 years ago.

Since many houses are going at variable, balloon, interest only and low down-payments, we will have another correction. We see inventory started to exist again in NY, but not in my area of PA yet, where even the big, to be built houses qt 1.5 to 2.5 million, are selling.

Wonder what these people do for a living (interest only loans double your ability to buy due to lower monthly payments, until you hit 5 years, then principle gets added to double the monthly, or you have to get a new loan (balloon payment).
This is what happened in NY/FL and collapsed the housing market a few years back. Now seeing in California. Is this happening down south too?

Still have one going for 7.5million across the street. Their indoor pool is probably as big as my house. Can't imagine why that one is not selling. :cool:

For my new light duty propane grill, I spent less on it then my super cheap 3 burner grill 4 years ago. It is 5 burner plus side burner, Home Depot looks like they got flooded as last years orders got caught up and arrived with this years orders.

Still short supply of meats around here though and gas still at around $5 a gallon mid-grade.
 
   / The Glut Cometh #88  
   / The Glut Cometh #89  
Please stop bragging about how little you all pay in property taxes. It's making this NYer cry. 😭
Another member from your state posted how much his taxes were a while back. I almost messed my pants the shock was so great! I believe that it was about half the appraised value of my property.
I hope that you get something in return.
 
   / The Glut Cometh #90  
Another member from your state posted how much his taxes were a while back. I almost messed my pants the shock was so great! I believe that it was about half the appraised value of my property.
I hope that you get something in return.

I'm under the impression that their ROI is worse than ours, lol.
 
   / The Glut Cometh #91  
One saving grace is California Voters have to approve new taxes and Assessor can only adjust upward of 2% annually.

That said those that bought at the peak might bail like before and property tax is a factor as reductions can take years to process and then only temporary.

I can see someone with 3200 square feet 25 year old home on a sloped lot paying 25k property tax if bought in the last 18 months...
 
   / The Glut Cometh #92  
My rule of thumb has been that house prices should reflect 3x the neighborhood median gross annual income, but that was from the days when a 7% or 7.5% mortgage was the norm. Higher incomes can exceed that because other expenses don't increase rapidly as your income rises.

The sensible thing has always been to buy what you can afford and pay for it. We have been mortgage-free for 14 years, and that has gone a long way toward a comfortable retirement.
We run on the 1 income policy when figuring out our price point for a mortgage. This way if something happens and one of us can't work, then we aren't homeless or hungry.

It helps that my wife and I are both cheap, and don't mind handling improvements ourselves.
 
   / The Glut Cometh #93  
We run on the 1 income policy when figuring out our price point for a mortgage. This way if something happens and one of us can't work, then we aren't homeless or hungry.

It helps that my wife and I are both cheap, and don't mind handling improvements ourselves.
Right?!?!
It works. Thats one of the most significant ways I built my wealth. I have lived in 3 homes since I got married 25 years ago. I saw each one’s potential bought at low price points and added additions, fancy kitchens, garages, etc them by myself. Then sold for 50-100% more after 5-10 years on market upswings. Gave me money for vacations, college, vehicles and other money draining ventures……like farming lol
 
   / The Glut Cometh #94  
Right?!?!
It works. Thats one of the most significant ways I built my wealth. I have lived in 3 homes since I got married 25 years ago. I saw each one’s potential bought at low price points and added additions, fancy kitchens, garages, etc them by myself. Then sold for 50-100% more after 5-10 years on market upswings. Gave me money for vacations, college, vehicles and other money draining ventures……like farming lol
We've just started poking around for another house. Looked at one the other day that had serious potential on 3 acres.

Garage needed to be finished, missing over head doors, and the front face (brick veneer) had a large Crack that needed to be addressed.

Main house needed repainting, new roof, new AC, flooring, and a bathroom ceiling replaced.

The big issue was the place being sold as is and was a rental. Last tenant left in a hurry after thrashing the place. So there were quite a few of the former tenants belongings in the home.

Was poking through a closet and found a memorial flag (military) and a large ornate urn

I looked up and asked the realtor what we were supposed to do with "Uncle Bob and his flag"?????

We passed on the home. Between figuring out what to do with uncle Bob, and the outer wall of the garage being tight to the property line, it was more headache then what I was looking for.
 
   / The Glut Cometh #95  
School taxes would be fine, if they did what the original intent was ... educate an "employable" workforce. Today, public schools teach kids everything except what it takes to be employable, consequently, funding needs to be cut until they get back to training an employable workforce.
The purpose of the educational system was originally to educate the future voters, that they could be an informed and discerning electorate.

Think about it: What vocational education does a worker need to be farm laborer? Which was the primary occupation in America, until after the civil war. Most skilled trades were trained through apprenticeships.

And in most states the remnants of that are reflected by the requirement that you complete 8th grade before you can drop out of school.
 
   / The Glut Cometh #96  
The purpose of the educational system was originally to educate the future voters, that they could be an informed and discerning electorate.

Think about it: What vocational education does a worker need to be farm laborer? Which was the primary occupation in America, until after the civil war. Most skilled trades were trained through apprenticeships.

And in most states the remnants of that are reflected by the requirement that you complete 8th grade before you can drop out of school.
That was the purpose of primary education. The 3 Rs. Secondary education was always intended to be vocational.

Ag was Vocational Agriculture, that taught wood working, mechanical skills, crop selection, water and erosion systems, etc. That morphed into shop classes, but many high school students were certified welders, or ready to enter plumbing or electrical apprenticeships.

Home Economics was intended to teach cooking, nutrition, housekeeping, child care, budgeting, and other domestic skills. That may seem trivial, but we have a generation that does not know how to cook. I saw an interview in 2008 with a woman leaving a food bank who said, "Thank god there are no dried beans. I must have 50 lbs. of dried beans at home and don't know what to do with them."

The business department at my high school was well known. I learned typing and business law, basically contracts and torts. Kids who concentrated in that area learned double entry bookkeeping, payroll, tax planning, and probably a bunch of stuff I didn't know about.

Physical Education was designed to get the couch potatoes moving once a day, but also to prep young men for military service. If you got an A in PE you could sail through basic training. That went hand in glove with social studies. You could not graduate without passing a year of Civics.

College prep courses were not directly vocational, but I graduated with a year of college level physics, chemistry, trigonometry, calculus, the logical discipline of Euclidean geometry, two years of a foreign language, and the ability to write lab reports, technical papers, and short stories.

Grade inflation had not become a thing, The average GPA was 2.5 and a perfect 4.0 was achieved by perhaps one in 50. A perfect score on the SATs was unheard of. The reason businesses require a degree is that high school has become little more than advanced child care.
 
   / The Glut Cometh #97  
That was the purpose of primary education. The 3 Rs. Secondary education was always intended to be vocational.

Ag was Vocational Agriculture, that taught wood working, mechanical skills, crop selection, water and erosion systems, etc. That morphed into shop classes, but many high school students were certified welders, or ready to enter plumbing or electrical apprenticeships.

Home Economics was intended to teach cooking, nutrition, housekeeping, child care, budgeting, and other domestic skills. That may seem trivial, but we have a generation that does not know how to cook. I saw an interview in 2008 with a woman leaving a food bank who said, "Thank god there are no dried beans. I must have 50 lbs. of dried beans at home and don't know what to do with them."

The business department at my high school was well known. I learned typing and business law, basically contracts and torts. Kids who concentrated in that area learned double entry bookkeeping, payroll, tax planning, and probably a bunch of stuff I didn't know about.

Physical Education was designed to get the couch potatoes moving once a day, but also to prep young men for military service. If you got an A in PE you could sail through basic training. That went hand in glove with social studies. You could not graduate without passing a year of Civics.

College prep courses were not directly vocational, but I graduated with a year of college level physics, chemistry, trigonometry, calculus, the logical discipline of Euclidean geometry, two years of a foreign language, and the ability to write lab reports, technical papers, and short stories.

Grade inflation had not become a thing, The average GPA was 2.5 and a perfect 4.0 was achieved by perhaps one in 50. A perfect score on the SATs was unheard of. The reason businesses require a degree is that high school has become little more than advanced child care.
You are confusing what it became, and not talking about the original purpose.

That the republic requires an informed and discerning electorate that it might thrive. In some form all of the founding fathers voiced that sentiment. (Jefferson in about 7 different ways)

To get that informed electorate the society developed public education. The three “R”s, but there was a focus on US history, and Civics/Social Studies.

Depending on the State, students were required to complete somewhere between 4 and 8-years of education, with states further west tending to require more. This is probably because the technology and education needed to use it increased over time, and States further west knew they needed more education.

And, most of the problems of our society today, is that a very small percentage of the electorate knows enough to make any kind of a an informed decision.
 
   / The Glut Cometh #98  
And, most of the problems of our society today, is that a very small percentage of the electorate knows enough to make any kind of a an informed decision
This more than anything else- except enough basic economics to at least run a home. I’ve always believed that these are things which should be taught in the home… I also occasionally go out tilting windmills. ;)
Yet when the average family runs their finances like the federal government does, I am starting to believe there must be a better way.
 
   / The Glut Cometh #99  
We have to fire up a generator to shower, but can get a bath pretty easily by heating a 12 gallon laundry tub of water on top of the wood stove, then tempering it with cold water in the tub. I don't mind running a generator for a couple hours a day for electrical stuff, but hate generator noise with a passion. One of the delights of living here is the silence. The only sounds are the wind in the trees, the water in the creek, and the assorted chirps, hoots, and grunts of the local wildlife. A generator wrecks that.
I would have to fire up the generator for hot water once what's in the tank got depleted. A couple years ago I replaced the old HW heater (with pilot and atmospheric vent) with a power-vent unit at the "strong suggestion" of the gas company (my vent is horizontal thru the side of the house, and didn't create enough draft to legally operate).
Agree with you on the silence...absolutely love it! There are days when other than the occasional passing vehicle the only sounds are those of nature. Can't put a price on that!! Funny, I have some "city" friends who find that much quiet disconcerting.
 
   / The Glut Cometh #100  
I would have to fire up the generator for hot water once what's in the tank got depleted. A couple years ago I replaced the old HW heater (with pilot and atmospheric vent) with a power-vent unit at the "strong suggestion" of the gas company (my vent is horizontal thru the side of the house, and didn't create enough draft to legally operate).
Agree with you on the silence...absolutely love it! There are days when other than the occasional passing vehicle the only sounds are those of nature. Can't put a price on that!! Funny, I have some "city" friends who find that much quiet disconcerting.
I wonder how they'd feel about my place... sometimes on cloudy nights it's so dark I can't see my truck while walking up the driveway until I walk into it. The only sounds I hear at night are the refrigerator and freezer running, with an occasional truck going down the highway over 1/2 mile away.

When I first bought this place there was no power, I built an outhouse/generator shed and an 8x12 foot camp. The first night we spent in it my dog- who wasn't afraid of anything- spooked when an owl sounded off in the distance.
 

Tractor & Equipment Auctions

UNUSED FUTURE ML32 - 32" MINI HYD MULCHER (A52706)
UNUSED FUTURE ML32...
2020 PETERBILT 567 (A58214)
2020 PETERBILT 567...
7ft Pull-Behind Rake Tractor Attachment (A59228)
7ft Pull-Behind...
2006 Ford F-750 Fuel and Lube Truck (A59230)
2006 Ford F-750...
2014 Chevrolet Silverado 4x4 Crew Cab Pickup Truck (A56858)
2014 Chevrolet...
CAT 930M (A58214)
CAT 930M (A58214)
 
Top