"The reality is that [US] consumers are willing to pay high prices."
- Thread starter deereman64
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irwin said:Sorry Mike: you're right, I got alittle hyperbole happening there, however I do believe oil reserves are a lot smaller then most people think...really would like to believe our leaders would be honest about what they do concerning energy, and what they do to potecting oil. Most likely they think we're not smart enough to handle the truth.
I'm not absolutely sure where I read this, but I think it was Thomas Sowell's book The Vision of the Annointed.
In it, he mentions the fear mongering about oil reserves. First, he points out that no one knows exactly how much oil the earth can yield. All we know is this is what has been found so far.
He takes another doom-and-gloom author to task; that author predicted in 1969 that all the oil would have been consumed by now. Not only was he wrong, he was spectacularly wrong. After 38 years of gluttonous oil consumption, not only are we not out of oil, there are more proven reserves now than there were in 1969.
This is what happens when you extrapolate data. When you have a known consumption rate (which is growing) and you plot that against a fixed amount of reserves, of course you get an intersection of these two and a date upon which you can predict that "we will run out of oil."
The problem is, the amount of known reserves is not fixed. It is only the amount that people have cared to look for based upon the price of oil today. If the price of oil goes up or the cost of discovery goes down, people will look harder for it.
Z-Michigan
Veteran Member
This is going an interesting direction...
From what I read most really friendly countries, including Mexico, are running out of oil. Mexico's biggest field has been seeing 30% annual DECREASES in production for several years now, which quickly takes it from a big to an insignificant producer. Incidentally, this is bad for the Mexican economy and should be kept in mind when looking at immigration politics. Canada has the biggest petroleum reserves in the world in its tar sands, but they are difficult and expensive to turn into useful products. However, 20 years from now Canada may well be the biggest producer in the world - and oil may well be $200/barrel or more.
In terms of useful oil, Russia and Venzuela are sadly among the biggest owners of reserves. The mideast has a lot left but won't be increasing production, and in fact will likely dry up in the next 15-30 years. The Saudis have probably been overstating their reserves, and Iran probably has less than has been thought. In fact, Iran's interest in nuclear power, although certainly in part for weapons, may really be in part because they have a looming energy shortage there. They had serious riots last week when the state-regulated price of gasoline was increased - I think to something like 12 cents a gallon (!!!) - and rationing of something like 20 gallons/month per person was instituted. Part of this is because they lack domestic refining capacity more than they lack oil.
IMHO corn ethanol is going nowhere fast. It will really screw up grain markets this year and next, but I think it will collapse in a few years. If - IF - cellulosic ethanol becomes practical, that could make a big difference for the US and a few other countries. That's a good hope. But corn ethanol is a dead-end.
The other thing we're going to see, at least in transportation fuels, is coal to liquids. It's an old process and just terrible for greenhouse gases, but the US has incredible coal reserves (over 200 years at current rates of consumption) and the process works and can be done financially if current oil prices stay where they are. So keep eyes on this.
Personally - I'm hoping for breakthroughs in solar and cellulosic ethanol. I hate the idea of using more carbon fossil fuels.
From what I read most really friendly countries, including Mexico, are running out of oil. Mexico's biggest field has been seeing 30% annual DECREASES in production for several years now, which quickly takes it from a big to an insignificant producer. Incidentally, this is bad for the Mexican economy and should be kept in mind when looking at immigration politics. Canada has the biggest petroleum reserves in the world in its tar sands, but they are difficult and expensive to turn into useful products. However, 20 years from now Canada may well be the biggest producer in the world - and oil may well be $200/barrel or more.
In terms of useful oil, Russia and Venzuela are sadly among the biggest owners of reserves. The mideast has a lot left but won't be increasing production, and in fact will likely dry up in the next 15-30 years. The Saudis have probably been overstating their reserves, and Iran probably has less than has been thought. In fact, Iran's interest in nuclear power, although certainly in part for weapons, may really be in part because they have a looming energy shortage there. They had serious riots last week when the state-regulated price of gasoline was increased - I think to something like 12 cents a gallon (!!!) - and rationing of something like 20 gallons/month per person was instituted. Part of this is because they lack domestic refining capacity more than they lack oil.
IMHO corn ethanol is going nowhere fast. It will really screw up grain markets this year and next, but I think it will collapse in a few years. If - IF - cellulosic ethanol becomes practical, that could make a big difference for the US and a few other countries. That's a good hope. But corn ethanol is a dead-end.
The other thing we're going to see, at least in transportation fuels, is coal to liquids. It's an old process and just terrible for greenhouse gases, but the US has incredible coal reserves (over 200 years at current rates of consumption) and the process works and can be done financially if current oil prices stay where they are. So keep eyes on this.
Personally - I'm hoping for breakthroughs in solar and cellulosic ethanol. I hate the idea of using more carbon fossil fuels.
kmg
New member
Read the Olduvai Theory.
MikePA
Super Moderator
More fear mongering wrapped in scientific garb.kmg said:
"Duncan is often called a pseudoscientist as he does not publish in reputable peer-reviewed journals, and because his research has been often quoted by some racially biased organizations and Illuminati conspiracy theorists. His theory has spread through the more apocalyptic groups of "Peak Oilers" but has yet to gain much attention or interest by mainstream scientists."
slowrev
Elite Member
Why would anyone complain about $3.00 gas ? Many pay $5.00 gal for bottled water. 4 16 oz bottles at $1.25 each....When they can buy it for $1.00 in a gallon jug.
SkyPup
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The price of gasoline should at least be the cost of beer.
jayhaitch
Silver Member
My Dad called beer "liquid bread."
Now, I found it fascinating that the entire theory that petroleum comes from fossil fuels has a competitor. If "abiotic" oil is true, the earth will continue to make oil. We're not just consuming old dinosaurs. Try this:
"The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins is not controversial nor presently a matter of academic debate. The period of debate about this extensive body of knowledge has been over for approximately two decades (Simakov 1986). The modern theory is presently applied extensively throughout the former U.S.S.R. as the guiding perspective for petroleum exploration and development projects. There are presently more than 80 oil and gas fields in the Caspian district alone which were explored and developed by applying the perspective of the modern theory and which produce from the crystalline basement rock. (Krayushkin, Chebanenko et al. 1994) Similarly, such exploration in the western Siberia cratonic-rift sedimentary basin has developed 90 petroleum fields of which 80 produce either partly or entirely from the crystalline basement. The exploration and discoveries of the 11 major and 1 giant fields on the northern flank of the Dneiper-Donets basin have already been noted. There are presently deep drilling exploration projects under way in Azerbaijan, Tatarstan, and Asian Siberia directed to testing potential oil and gas reservoirs in the crystalline basement. (Gas Resources Corporation - Houston, Texas)
It appears that, unbeknownst to Westerners, there have actually been, for quite some time now, two competing theories concerning the origins of petroleum. One theory claims that oil is an organic 'fossil fuel' deposited in finite quantities near the planet's surface. The other theory claims that oil is continuously generated by natural processes in the Earth's magma. One theory is backed by a massive body of research representing fifty years of intense scientific inquiry. The other theory is an unproven relic of the eighteenth century. One theory anticipates deep oil reserves, refillable oil fields, migratory oil systems, deep sources of generation, and the spontaneous venting of gas and oil. The other theory has a difficult time explaining any such documented phenomena.
So which theory have we in the West, in our infinite wisdom, chosen to embrace? Why, the fundamentally absurd 'Fossil Fuel' theory, of course -- the same theory that the 'Peak Oil' doomsday warnings are based on."
Here's the link to the whole page: abiotic oil debate
abiotic oil debate
Now, I found it fascinating that the entire theory that petroleum comes from fossil fuels has a competitor. If "abiotic" oil is true, the earth will continue to make oil. We're not just consuming old dinosaurs. Try this:
"The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins is not controversial nor presently a matter of academic debate. The period of debate about this extensive body of knowledge has been over for approximately two decades (Simakov 1986). The modern theory is presently applied extensively throughout the former U.S.S.R. as the guiding perspective for petroleum exploration and development projects. There are presently more than 80 oil and gas fields in the Caspian district alone which were explored and developed by applying the perspective of the modern theory and which produce from the crystalline basement rock. (Krayushkin, Chebanenko et al. 1994) Similarly, such exploration in the western Siberia cratonic-rift sedimentary basin has developed 90 petroleum fields of which 80 produce either partly or entirely from the crystalline basement. The exploration and discoveries of the 11 major and 1 giant fields on the northern flank of the Dneiper-Donets basin have already been noted. There are presently deep drilling exploration projects under way in Azerbaijan, Tatarstan, and Asian Siberia directed to testing potential oil and gas reservoirs in the crystalline basement. (Gas Resources Corporation - Houston, Texas)
It appears that, unbeknownst to Westerners, there have actually been, for quite some time now, two competing theories concerning the origins of petroleum. One theory claims that oil is an organic 'fossil fuel' deposited in finite quantities near the planet's surface. The other theory claims that oil is continuously generated by natural processes in the Earth's magma. One theory is backed by a massive body of research representing fifty years of intense scientific inquiry. The other theory is an unproven relic of the eighteenth century. One theory anticipates deep oil reserves, refillable oil fields, migratory oil systems, deep sources of generation, and the spontaneous venting of gas and oil. The other theory has a difficult time explaining any such documented phenomena.
So which theory have we in the West, in our infinite wisdom, chosen to embrace? Why, the fundamentally absurd 'Fossil Fuel' theory, of course -- the same theory that the 'Peak Oil' doomsday warnings are based on."
Here's the link to the whole page: abiotic oil debate
abiotic oil debate
OP
deereman64
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These guys can get as wrong as anybody ,but I think its informative
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
How can we scale back on our demand? I believe we miss the point many times because we try to make it and all or none solution. That has the effect of polarizing opinions and we end of doing nothing. I m looking for the marginal changes we can make to reduce demand.Oil is not going to disappear tomorrow the price pressure is occuring at the margins of the suppl/demand curve. We know the issues of the supply curve. As consumers we need to modify the demand curve. Can we harness the power of the internet for instance to change the way we work, not telecomputing 100 % of the time but say 5% of the time, that means approximately 10 working days a year. How many trips a year to Walmart or TSC? Can we use email to tell our friends for example that you are going there on a certain day and do they need anything.
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
How can we scale back on our demand? I believe we miss the point many times because we try to make it and all or none solution. That has the effect of polarizing opinions and we end of doing nothing. I m looking for the marginal changes we can make to reduce demand.Oil is not going to disappear tomorrow the price pressure is occuring at the margins of the suppl/demand curve. We know the issues of the supply curve. As consumers we need to modify the demand curve. Can we harness the power of the internet for instance to change the way we work, not telecomputing 100 % of the time but say 5% of the time, that means approximately 10 working days a year. How many trips a year to Walmart or TSC? Can we use email to tell our friends for example that you are going there on a certain day and do they need anything.
SkyPup
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- North Central, Florida
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- Kubota L-39 GST TLB, Kubota L3130GST, Massey 1030 HST, Kubota ZD-21 ProDecK, Two Euro VW TDIs
Current petrochemical supplies would last a whole lot longer if the masses were all commuting on 50cc motorscooters, our little Honda 50Z gets over 130 miles per gallon, but even all my 650cc bikes get 55-60mpg!
