ponytug
Super Member
It is currently falling at about 25,000 ft / sec. More info at CZ-5B / 48275 / 2021-035B
Estimated impact time is Saturday night to Sunday morning (60% probability, spanning close to ten hours). It is hard to predict the deorbit time, because it is a long thin object (30m close to 100').
Because of the orbit, it spends more time at 41 deg. North/South, which makes the impact more likely there, slightly.
Apparently, it was supposed to actively deorbit, and something failed. As @MossRoad points out, it is one of the largest objects to deorbit in a less than controlled manner in the last thirty years.
So, yes, heads up! Though low probability...
All the best,
Peter
Estimated impact time is Saturday night to Sunday morning (60% probability, spanning close to ten hours). It is hard to predict the deorbit time, because it is a long thin object (30m close to 100').
Because of the orbit, it spends more time at 41 deg. North/South, which makes the impact more likely there, slightly.
Apparently, it was supposed to actively deorbit, and something failed. As @MossRoad points out, it is one of the largest objects to deorbit in a less than controlled manner in the last thirty years.
So, yes, heads up! Though low probability...
All the best,
Peter