This one is for Texas --IKE

[dmccarty]

Dan -- 34 feet is like the worst case scenario forever and ever and a cat 6 (if there was such a thing) I don't know where underground is getting their data -- but the boss just ran a model for me and worst case for this storm is around 20 feet.

Website link is:
Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

My 34 feet number is from a chart put out by NOAA published on the link. From the text with the figure, "...The plot is the MAXIMUM high water for a worst-case scenario Category 4 hurricane moving at the worst possible angle at the worst possible forward speed...."

What a Cat 5 storm would do is a bit beyond scary. Only a bit of the coast, from what I gather is Liberty county near Chambers, would get the 30+ surge. The rest of the cost is only 20+ feet of surge.

Dr. Master's page does have this link for surge evacuation zones, Texas Emergency Management Press Releases and storm surge risk for the Texas coast, Texas Storm Surge : Weather Underground

Later,
Dan

 

[txdon]

Don -- 100mph winds for Lee county is BS ... according to my guys - you might see half that -- which is strong enuff anyway.

Austin WAS saying that it would still be a class 2 hurricane in Lee County. They must have talked to your guys NOW they have it further east and only 50mph winds here, of course they will change it a few more times before Friday.

At noon the traffic on 290 and 77 was really busy in Giddings. The evacuees are heading North.

 

[mikim]

Bernice is trying to figure out how to put 10 people in that 12 x 60 mobile ....but she's currently out at the barn getting the AC fixed (again) ...which will help. We've also had an offer from a weekend neighbor up there to use their double wide. IF she can find the keys to it -- I put 'em someplace really safe.......?????dunno????... Tomorrow's 9a.m. conf call will tell us the score.....BUT my guy is sticking with the est. 50mph wind at Fedor....maybe a bit less downtown where the buildings can block the wind.

 

[Tdog]

txdon, Mike & other coastal Texans, Ya'll stay safe.

I've got family in Richmond, but can't convince them to leave.

Jack

 

[texbaylea]

I think almost everybody has forgotten how bad a hurricane can be or have never been through one. I had hoped that I never would again.

Vernon

 

[Bird]

Vernon, my parents spent the Winters at Port Aransas for many years, then lived there year round a number of years. They lived in a small mobile home in a park that had both small mobile homes and RVs. One year when a hurricane was coming, friends of theirs, in a travel trailer, hooked up and moved up near San Antonio to wait out the storm. None of the trailers in the park at Port Aransas were damaged, but the couple who went to San Antonio had their trailer turned over and destroyed by a tornado that put both of them in the hospital. Fortunately, they both survived and recovered. I see in the news that folks in Houston have been asked to "hunker down" instead of leaving this time in order to avoid gridlock on the highways.

 

[texbaylea]

Vernon, my parents spent the Winters at Port Aransas for many years, then lived there year round a number of years. They lived in a small mobile home in a park that had both small mobile homes and RVs. One year when a hurricane was coming, friends of theirs, in a travel trailer, hooked up and moved up near San Antonio to wait out the storm. None of the trailers in the park at Port Aransas were damaged, but the couple who went to San Antonio had their trailer turned over and destroyed by a tornado that put both of them in the hospital. Fortunately, they both survived and recovered. I see in the news that folks in Houston have been asked to "hunker down" instead of leaving this time in order to avoid gridlock on the highways.

If I still lived in the same neighborhood in Houston I grew up in I would have hunkered down too. We were living in Dickinson while I worked at NASA. I built the house with the finished floor about 18" above Carla flood stage and we got 3.5' of water in 1979 inside the house. With subsidence and what all that house, which backs up on Dickinson Bayou, now has a finish floor elevation of about 15' above sea level. I have enough experience to know that this was coming again just not when.

I, too, have heard stories about people have evacuated from storms only to be in worse shape. You have to play the odds as you see them.

Vernon

 

[texasjohn]

I left this AM at 4:30am for Corpus, picked up my MIL and scampered back to Jarrell...I'm here to tell you that the absolute minimum time for the round trip is 10.5 hrs. Road down and back was absolutely no problem.

I used to live in Shoreacres and La Porte... houston/nasa area...my worst case scenario was a hurricane hitting Galveston at high tide with winds pushing water up the ship channel... last I heard, that's what will happen...

A little appreciated aspect of the roads in Houston area is that they all seem to go thru a dip... and, in any kind of strong storm, that dip is filled with water, preventing movement along that road.

I'm very afraid that gridlock on the roads will occur on Fri, then the hurricane and tornados will hit around midnight with all the vehicles parked on all the roads... it isn't going to be a pretty sight.... the Houston area is full of bayous and low places and subsidance areas.....this is true much farther inland than is generally recognized.... even a regular 5 inch rain fills dips and ditches and keeps people from getting off the roads and home.... The TV is just now predicting 15 inches of rain .....

I hope all you good TBN folks stay safe.....I live on top of a hill and generator is primed and ready with standby fuel... don't expect to use it, but ready if need be.

 

[lrunge]

I lived North of Houston (Spring, Tx) in the early 80's. I was there in 1983 when Alicia hit Galveston as a Cat 3. This one is being compared to Alicia and on a similar track. I lost part of my roof. I stayed in the house and watched the whole thing. Not interested in repeating that. Downtown Houston was a sea of glass. All the highrises lost lots of their glass. Lots of trees down. No power for 3 days. I remember long lines for ice and charging $10 for a bag. Here's a link to Alicia for comparison. Hunker down and take care.
HURRICANE ALICIA 1983. A LOOK BACK. (LOOKS LIKE THE SAME TRACK) - MyWeatherLive.com. --A-LOOK-BACK.-(LOOKS-LIKE-THE-SAME-TRACK)

 

[dmccarty]

The TV is just now predicting 15 inches of rain .....

Floyd dropped up to 19-20 inches in some places in NC when it barely touched the state and moved rapidly up the coast. Worst flooding in hundreds of years in NC. It was said it was the worst destruction since the War Between the States. From what I saw when the water was still up and later helping people clean up it was bad bad bad. Places flooded that had never flooded in memory. Floyd was "only" a Cat 2 storm.

The sat images have Ike taking up much of the gulf. I read yesterday that Ike is larger than Katrina. Ike be big.

Good Luck To You Texans and everyone else that Ike visits after landfall.

Dan