This one is for Texas --IKE

[tallyho8]

Ike is ove 100 miles south of us now and we have some wind gusts that were similar to when Gustav passed close by last week. I surely didn't expect it to be this bad around here for Ike. I expect to lose electricity anytime now. This storm has high winds for a very long way north of it so even if you are 50 miles north of where the eye is going to pass be prepared for the worst.
Good luck.

 

[mikim]

The 3 a.m. briefing from the NHC was not full of good news. Ike is big and bad and he's coming ashore between Freeport and Galveston. Because of his size it just don't matter exactly where the center is. The tide surge is going to be awful. Major flooding from the surge will occur and surprise a lot of people - even though we warned on it -- lots of folks didn't listen. I just heard that there are people on High Island calling for rescue....they were told to evac on Wed. He'll be turning when it comes ashore so the areas west of a line from College Station to Yoakum will see some wind and rain but nothing to be too concerned about. Remember all those pictures of NO with the flood waters that went for miles? It's our turn. Half of Galveston and Brazoria counties will be under water. If I don't get back on here later it will be because comms went down. The office is in a cat 5 building .....I guess we're going to give it a test.

 

[jinman]

Being a hurricane dummy, this is a very interesting track. It shows the remnants of Ike going as far as Ohio by Monday morning.

NOAA Ike Track

 

[texbaylea]

The 3 a.m. briefing from the NHC was not full of good news. Ike is big and bad and he's coming ashore between Freeport and Galveston. Because of his size it just don't matter exactly where the center is. The tide surge is going to be awful. Major flooding from the surge will occur and surprise a lot of people - even though we warned on it -- lots of folks didn't listen. I just heard that there are people on High Island calling for rescue....they were told to evac on Wed. He'll be turning when it comes ashore so the areas west of a line from College Station to Yoakum will see some wind and rain but nothing to be too concerned about. Remember all those pictures of NO with the flood waters that went for miles? It's our turn. Half of Galveston and Brazoria counties will be under water. If I don't get back on here later it will be because comms went down. The office is in a cat 5 building .....I guess we're going to give it a test.

Mike
I hope that your forecasters are right. That will make it easier on me and those west of me. Our Lee county members may be able to coast through this. Thanks.

I pulled out my very old PTO generator in a possibly vane hope that I can get it running. Haven't touched in over 5 years.

Good Luck everybody.

Vernon

 

[dmccarty]

In case anyone near the TX coast has NOT seen this info from the Hurricane Local Statement from the Galveston National Weather Service office .

All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair.

Good Luck,
Dan

 

[mikim]

Vern -- that statement about that line from CS to Yoakum is my perception ... not from the forecasters. Totally UN official and I'm not a forecaster --- it's just what I was seeing looking over their shoulders. I would GUESS that the winds might be in the 40 - 50 range and rain ....????? dunno .... but the storm should move through fast enough to not be too bad.
Dan -- the fellas that write that HLS are right here --- and keep in mind that they can't exaggerate..... I sometimes do --- but they don't -- We have our best forecasters on duty .....actually all but one are here --- but the good ones are on top of it. I setup cots in our conf room for 'em to try to grab some sleep now and again. We have one fella that hasn't been here but 2 weeks or so -- moved here from Montana--- he's getting quite a baptism of fire!

 

[dmccarty]

Mike said,

...and keep in mind that they can't exaggerate...

In regards to the Galveston forecast,

Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death.

That scares the s..... out of me. That is a rather strong statement. Like I said, Floyd was a Cat 2 and it BARELY touched eastern NC and it left very quickly but caused massive flooding. Storm surge was not the problem. It was the 15-20 inches of rain. Ike is bringing some pretty big surge hundreds of miles of coastline AND 15 inches of rain.

WHO did you Texan's tick off?

Whatever you did, say you are sorry and dont do it again.

Good Luck,
Dan

 

[mikim]

That scares the s..... out of me

That's the whole point Dan -- some people won't listen unless you get right in their face about it and get really blunt. It's a strong statement but also a true one for along the coast. There are already people trapped that rescue crews are having to try to get to. quote Ron White "you can't fix stupid". I have no doubt that there are people trapped that don't even know they're trapped ....or don't believe the seriousness of Ike ....and the prognosis for them is not good at all.
Ike is currently forecast to be a strong 2 or weak 3 -- but the surge ---omg ---not gonna be good.

 

[texbaylea]

Vern -- that statement about that line from CS to Yoakum is my perception ... not from the forecasters. Totally UN official and I'm not a forecaster --- it's just what I was seeing looking over their shoulders. I would GUESS that the winds might be in the 40 - 50 range and rain ....????? dunno .... but the storm should move through fast enough to not be too bad.
Dan -- the fellas that write that HLS are right here --- and keep in mind that they can't exaggerate..... I sometimes do --- but they don't -- We have our best forecasters on duty .....actually all but one are here --- but the good ones are on top of it. I setup cots in our conf room for 'em to try to grab some sleep now and again. We have one fella that hasn't been here but 2 weeks or so -- moved here from Montana--- he's getting quite a baptism of fire!

Mike
I understand. 40-50 mph winds are what I kinda planned for so maybe we will be alright. We have one really vulnerable window but I physically cannot handle full sheet of plywood like I use to. We are just going to hope that the trees hold on to their limbs. The next time we have some able body people around here I will get some window boards cut and stashed.

I agree that you cannot fix stupid. It seems like every major storm we hear of people that don't wake up until it is too late, putting rescue personnel in unnecessary jeopardy trying to save their sorry b**ts.

Hang in there. I will be interested to hear how Dickinson fares. I am hoping that the young people who bought our house come through OK.

Vernon

 

[texbaylea]

Mike said, ......

WHO did you Texan's tick off?

Whatever you did, say you are sorry and dont do it again.

Good Luck,
Dan

Dan
I think that it was past our time. We have been extraordinarily lucky while Florida and the East coast have been beat upon repeatedly.

Oh, Well, It had to happen some time
Vernon