And there's an angle that I read today; the difference between commercial TP and consumer TP and the supply chain to deliver the product.
The TP producers can't (quickly, I imagine) re-tool(?) commercial grade TP production to make up for the shift in volume and quality of consumer/household grade TP. In other words, they're still producing at the rate/ratio/demand of 2-3 months ago.
There's probably a glut of commercial grade TP out there right now in warehouses.
I just had this exact discussion yesterday.
The terms that we are talking about are “Away From Home” (commercial) and “At Home”. Within the “At Home” market are several different levels; “Economy”, “Premium”, and “Ulta”.
“Away from Home” and “Economy” bath are always made on what is known as a conventional tissue machine. In conventional tissue, the sheet is formed, pressed, adhered to a large steam heated vessel called a “Yankee Dryer” and then it is creped off and wound up on a reel. Fiber that is used can range from recycled office waste (note that a lot of offices are closed right now) to virgin fiber (wood pulp). These grades are generally marketed on price, and as such, they are not soft, nor are they “bulky”. “Bulky” means that it takes a lot more squared to feel like “you have enough to do the job”.
The Premium can be made on a conventional tissue machine with a few operating parameter changes that can be made usually very quickly. But the fiber source would likely need to change and some of the chemistries. If I had the fiber, and the right chemistry, I could make Premium bath on a conventional tissue machine of “acceptable” quality in a couple of hours. It’s more about getting the settings right and getting the operators to understand what we are looking for in terms of quality. These machines can swing from economy and “Away From Home” grades if they have the people with the know-how (most of which are under travel restrictions if the knowledgeable person is not working on site).
Ulta is a completely different machine.. the name of the game is creating a nice “bulky” sheet. This is the stuff where 6 sheets is all you need. These are made on “Through Air Dried” machines or some variant of that machine. The formation of the sheet is the same as conventional tissue, but that’s where the similarities end.
The fabrics used to make the sheet have knuckles in them to create a 3 dimensional sheet (not a flat sheet like conventional machines). Hot air is blown through the sheet to dry it and then in most machines, it’s glued to a yankee drier, before being “creped” off and wound up on a different style of reel that preserves the “bulkiness”. This is the style of almost every new tissue machine that’s been built in the last 20 years. These machines run only virgin wood fiber. These machines are generally running with full schedules and usually at optimized capacity, so they are generally not available to make more paper.
Another challenge with to think about is that the companies that specialize in the “Away From Home” business generally do not have connections with the “At Home” market. So even if they have capacity, they might not get it to market because they might not have a supple contract with Costco or Walmart, etc. They can subcontract with one of the big suppliers, but that takes time, to set up.
