Tractor Shortages

[rScotty]

I just ran into some shortages getting parts for our old John Deere, and like a lot of us, it got me to wondering where this is going to lead.
Right now the shortages are novel, but becoming more of a problem every day. That makes now a good time to discuss things.

Some might say politics was a cause, but I think that was minor. Historically, the world has always had diverse politics and decent trade going along at the same time in spite of each other.

In my mind the big trigger for the shortages was the worldwide pandemic. It took a pandemic to show us just how fragile world's modern manufacturing and distribution system really is.

Right now I'm wondering if this really is just a problem just for a few years and then back to normal..... or will the shortages create a whole different world? And what would a different world trade look like for tractor owners?
rScotty

 

[Agvg]

Well, in the west quick profit is the short game, no other matter is given any thought, no social responsibility, no wish to be an positive member of society and we let them do it. China and other countries plays the long game, a game we don't understand or even sense, I do think some of the problems we now facing might be a move in this long game. Hopefully we will respond with understanding that deindustrialization is one very dangerous strategy, we looses jobs and fare more important is that we looses knowledge which make us weak and easy to control by others.

 

[LFP57]

Never waste a good crisis! Politics, greed and a shift from made in America to assembled in America from foreign parts. Not sure what a companies incentive would be to cut the cost, they've had a taste of the extra money and they'll come up with many reasons why they can't drop the prices. People get used to the increase and accept it.

 

[Boss 302]

Awaken to the new normal

 

[Hay Dude]

I just ran into some shortages getting parts for our old John Deere, and like a lot of us, it got me to wondering where this is going to lead.
Right now the shortages are novel, but becoming more of a problem every day. That makes now a good time to discuss things.

Some might say politics was a cause, but I think that was minor. Historically, the world has always had diverse politics and decent trade going along at the same time in spite of each other.

In my mind the big trigger for the shortages was the worldwide pandemic. It took a pandemic to show us just how fragile world's modern manufacturing and distribution system really is.

Right now I'm wondering if this really is just a problem just for a few years and then back to normal..... or will the shortages create a whole different world? And what would a different world trade look like for tractor owners?
rScotty

Too much dependency on foreign made products.
If we return to making more here, it wouldn’t be as bad.

 

[Paystar]

I don't think it will ever go back to normal. They keep creating new "variants" of the virus every week and want you to get vaccine after vaccine.
And now NO ONE seems to want to work any more. They all get their perceived "free money" from the government and the rest of us that do work daily are facing even higher payroll deductions come the new year to pay for them.

 

[IndyJay]

I just ran into some shortages getting parts for our old John Deere, and like a lot of us, it got me to wondering where this is going to lead.
Right now the shortages are novel, but becoming more of a problem every day. That makes now a good time to discuss things.

Some might say politics was a cause, but I think that was minor. Historically, the world has always had diverse politics and decent trade going along at the same time in spite of each other.

In my mind the big trigger for the shortages was the worldwide pandemic. It took a pandemic to show us just how fragile world's modern manufacturing and distribution system really is.

Right now I'm wondering if this really is just a problem just for a few years and then back to normal..... or will the shortages create a whole different world? And what would a different world trade look like for tractor owners?
rScotty

Can't really give an honest opinion without getting a "timeout". Yes, the world has always had diverse politics but things have changed dramatically in the past 5 years or so. People are no longer allowed to have frank and open discussions anymore. If you say something that is not part of the official narrative you lose your speaking privileges. This is what America has become and even this simple, honest statement will likely be removed and my account locked. But yes, I agree with you that the pandemic has been used to create a whole new world.

 

[Paystar]

We are all looking at tougher times ahead. I think the economy has been changed forever and is only going to get worse.
Just look at all the things these new governments and the people that voted for them are trying to do.

No more combustion engines, no more fuels, no more cattle or real meat, more taxes, higher food costs. Heck they are so awesome they are even going to change the climate cycle by charging you more tax! LOL

One that really makes me laugh is every time I hear on the news about the supply change shortages being partly caused by the shortage of truckers.
There is no shortage of truckers, just a shortage becuase of truckers that have got out of the industry (like I have after being a driver and an owner for 37 years) because nobody wants to pay, over regulation to the point you are treated like a criminal, and all the "new" drivers they are importing that are making a trip down the highway a suicide mission now.

 

[Hay Dude]

Look at all the cargo ships from China waiting to unload.
So we wait for other countries to spoon feed us what we need. Such a sad state of affairs.
Some live in areas of the country where things are going pretty well. For those of us in the rust belt watching our industrial plants closing (if there are any left) or being bought by foreign countries, it’s tough to watch.

Our chickens are coming home, to roost.

 

[MiniDonkey22]

Here in Upstate NY i am stunned by the lack of inventory at the local Ford dealerships, and Deere. Other brands are nominally better stocked (kubota best of all). Geopolitics are wildly complex so I won't wade into that swamp, but please consider that state side car manufacturing (union and non union) have been impacted by offshore parts supply too - in this case chips and some specialty (magnesium I hear) and other commodities. In this region there are new chip fab plants being built, so I am hopeful we can start to grow some stateside competency in tech jobs. But for reasons I don't understand, as a country we walked away from that industry (remember the texas and CA tech hubs of the 80s?). It has been a long time since I have seen an electronic or computer product made in North America. Anyhow, I can't say I blame these suppliers. If you can restrict the supply of your widget and get 3x the price...isn't that free market capitalism?

 

[Hay Dude]

Here in Upstate NY i am stunned by the lack of inventory at the local Ford dealerships, and Deere. Other brands are nominally better stocked (kubota best of all). Geopolitics are wildly complex so I won't wade into that swamp, but please consider that state side car manufacturing (union and non union) have been impacted by offshore parts supply too - in this case chips and some specialty (magnesium I hear) and other commodities. In this region there are new chip fab plants being built, so I am hopeful we can start to grow some stateside competency in tech jobs. But for reasons I don't understand, as a country we walked away from that industry (remember the texas and CA tech hubs of the 80s?). It has been a long time since I have seen an electronic or computer product made in North America. Anyhow, I can't say I blame these suppliers. If you can restrict the supply of your widget and get 3x the price...isn't that free market capitalism?

Well considering these critical parts and assemblies all now come from abroad as you pointed out, you’d have to explore the system of governance that particular country has.

 

[IndyJay]

If you can restrict the supply of your widget and get 3x the price...isn't that free market capitalism?

Depends on HOW you restrict the supply of your widget... if it is through bribery of lawmakers to gain regulations that favor you at the expense of your competitors, it is no longer free market capitalism. It is racketeering.

 

[Hay Dude]

I wonder how much those 200 or so cargo ships off the CA coast warm the globe and effect climate with their exhausts spewing diesel fumes for months on end? You could probably drive 1000 Toyota Camrys across the USA a billion times and make less pollution…

 

[Diggin It]

Normal is variable.

In the 60s, 70s and 80s, it was normal for shops, stores and warehouses to have abundant supplies on hand. Manufacturing facilities might have had a 6 month supply of parts. No deliveries for weeks? No problem, just keep making stuff.

Then the bean counters got involved. Why pay for all this stuff so far ahead and all the space to store it? Go Just In Time and get only the stuff in that will be used and gone in a few days. Don't worry about deliveries, they'll come and if they don't, we'll just save money by sending the workers home and turning the lights off for a few days, or weeks.

Blame who you want, but it all falls back on the bean counters, the C Suite monsters that value stock price above all else.



The cargo ship is another issue.

Why are there so few ports to take them in and offload them? OK, some of it is geography. Not all of the US coastline is suitable for it. But that's not true everywhere. And then there are the Unions that hold far too much power in too many areas. Unions can be good, or they can become overbearing and an impediment to progress.

 

[jezreel]

Too much dependency on foreign made products.
If we return to making more here, it wouldn’t be as bad.

THIS! ! ! It absolutely amazes me how we got to this point. So few factories left in this country. It astounds me that the Virus came from China, and the vast percentage of PPE has Chinese writing on it. Why the hey didn’t the US step up and say, we will not support China in the is virus response. We needed to step up and handle it. We have lost our self-sufficiency as a nation and could not exist if our borders were cut off by a foreign power.
It is a shame, this once GREAT Nation is now so dependent on Other nations for our goods. I totally understand businesses going to China to have products made for cents on the dollar, but we are Killing our nations future.
OK. . . I’m off my soapbox, but I really do not see the future any brighter when the world is so small now.

 

[ruffdog]

The world is small now and that demands more maturity and tactfulness to engage with other countries. America will isolate themselves if all we do is show rage and immature rants whenever something doesn't go our way.

 

[mred2]

Diggin it, I have to agree on the just in time inventory. I live near a car plant. Another plant that supplied one of the parts, had a problem and had to shut down for a few days. The car plant had to shut down for 2 weeks. They didn't have enough part to even finish up one day. When the other plant started by, it took time for it to start back up and parts inspected and shipped across town. No one wants any extra inventory to pay for and store. Most household don't have enough canned goods to cook for the next week.
The same with a lot of tractor parts. We don't have any extra parts. We go to the dealer, if it is not a fast moving part, he has to order it. We want him to stock parts. He doesn't want to pay for the inventory and in good times can get it in a week. No big deal for a hobby farmer. But we don't want to pay the higher price of dealer stocking the parts. So we order on-line. CHEAPER. No local taxes going to schools, not supporting local business or employment.
Buying local and made in USA sounds great, until you have to pay the extra 2% to buy it. It is always someone else causing the problems.

 

[Midniteoyl]

Normal is variable.

In the 60s, 70s and 80s, it was normal for shops, stores and warehouses to have abundant supplies on hand. Manufacturing facilities might have had a 6 month supply of parts. No deliveries for weeks? No problem, just keep making stuff.

Then the bean counters got involved. Why pay for all this stuff so far ahead and all the space to store it? Go Just In Time and get only the stuff in that will be used and gone in a few days. Don't worry about deliveries, they'll come and if they don't, we'll just save money by sending the workers home and turning the lights off for a few days, or weeks.

Blame who you want, but it all falls back on the bean counters, the C Suite monsters that value stock price above all else.



The cargo ship is another issue.

Why are there so few ports to take them in and offload them? OK, some of it is geography. Not all of the US coastline is suitable for it. But that's not true everywhere. And then there are the Unions that hold far too much power in too many areas. Unions can be good, or they can become overbearing and an impediment to progress.

Whats really funny is that the 'Just In Time' thing was created by Toyota and after a period of rejection, US companies finally embraced it then took it to the extreme and got to the point where if deliveries were delayed by even an hour the lines shut down (Motorola in the 90's anyone?). Having learned their lessen, US companies relaxed things a bit and went to a couple days to a couple weeks of inventories, depending.

But Toyota never said to have inventories coming in the back door just in time to build whats going out the front. They said not to have *years* worth of inventory sitting around (common at the time) and to limit it to about 6 months to reduce overhead but still allow for any fluctuations in the supply chain. This is why Toyota was the only car manufacturer to not shut down lines and still had fully functioning cars, chips and all. I have a feeling US companies are going to do another reset after this, LOL.

 

[Hay Dude]

Diggin it, I have to agree on the just in time inventory. I live near a car plant. Another plant that supplied one of the parts, had a problem and had to shut down for a few days. The car plant had to shut down for 2 weeks. They didn't have enough part to even finish up one day. When the other plant started by, it took time for it to start back up and parts inspected and shipped across town. No one wants any extra inventory to pay for and store. Most household don't have enough canned goods to cook for the next week.
The same with a lot of tractor parts. We don't have any extra parts. We go to the dealer, if it is not a fast moving part, he has to order it. We want him to stock parts. He doesn't want to pay for the inventory and in good times can get it in a week. No big deal for a hobby farmer. But we don't want to pay the higher price of dealer stocking the parts. So we order on-line. CHEAPER. No local taxes going to schools, not supporting local business or employment.
Buying local and made in USA sounds great, until you have to pay the extra 2% to buy it. It is always someone else causing the problems.

Is anything actually fully made in USA anymore?

 

[jezreel]

Certainly we have lost A Lot of production here in the USA, but that is the issue. Just think of the robust economy if things were. Though it’s hard to complain about cheap prices at Walmart when items are being produced by millions of people making slave wages.