Turned 200 hours Today and Anniversary Tomorrow

[JoelD]

We have to hold back because what we thought was real equity was virtual, and vanished in the real estate/banking collapse. The problem is that we are a consumer-driven economy that had used debt against virtual equity, rather than savings, for our capital. It is a vicious cycle, or rather a downward spiral, until we return to a savings-based economy. Unless you have your hands on it, it may not exist. People learned the hard way, and are reacting.

The scary thing is that during the Great Depression era, we had no government (taxpayer) debt, no personal credit, very few mortgages, and were a manufacturing powerhouse. None of that applies today, and perpetuating debt and spending can no longer be an viable solution.

In complete agreement.

We are going through a shift, problem is, I don't think anyone has a clear view of what is going to come out the other side.

Joel

 

[IXLR8]

Now that this thread has been turned a bit. My feeling is that IT has it correct, we can't save our way out of this mess, the only way is for the consumer to spend our way out. BUT we need to do it with cash and NOT debt!! So I suspect it will take a while for folks to reduce their debts and have some cash to start spending. Since folks have purchased lots of "nice to haves" over the last several years... I also suspect it will take a while for them to get to the point of needing to buy "have to haves", so recovery could take a while.

Presently I am taking a deep breath, glad I still have good job, especially in light of the fact that my company just announced the closing of the 3 other plants building our product. We got spared, we will be the last plant building this line of products. So we get a 3-5 year repreave, hopefully enough to get through this mess.

 

[deputyrpa]

Now that this thread has been turned a bit. My feeling is that IT has it correct, we can't save our way out of this mess, the only way is for the consumer to spend our way out. BUT we need to do it with cash and NOT debt!! So I suspect it will take a while for folks to reduce their debts and have some cash to start spending. Since folks have purchased lots of "nice to haves" over the last several years... I also suspect it will take a while for them to get to the point of needing to buy "have to haves", so recovery could take a while.

Presently I am taking a deep breath, glad I still have good job, especially in light of the fact that my company just announced the closing of the 3 other plants building our product. We got spared, we will be the last plant building this line of products. So we get a 3-5 year repreave, hopefully enough to get through this mess.

I am entirely at fault for veering off the subject!

Glad to here that your job is secure, Jim. You can exhale now....please....

I agree with what you said, but we will find it hard to save unless we can make better stuff and sell it to other countries. We just can't save without any product to offer that creates wealth. We can't continue to consume unless we save. What we are being asked to do is to spend with the current debt we have with money (not created wealth) that is either borrowed, printed or to-be-taxed. All not good.....

 

[JoelD]

I am entirely at fault for veering off the subject!

Glad to here that your job is secure, Jim. You can exhale now....please....

I agree with what you said, but we will find it hard to save unless we can make better stuff and sell it to other countries. We just can't save without any product to offer that creates wealth. We can't continue to consume unless we save. What we are being asked to do is to spend with the current debt we have with money (not created wealth) that is either borrowed, printed or to-be-taxed. All not good.....

Agreed deputy, debt got us into this mess and I can't see how debt will get us out. I think this is going to be a long slog.

I also think we're going through a shift, back to where less is more, people learning to live without debt and spending within their means, in the end a good thing, but for many, a painful time and for many more, delayed retirements.

I think this whole fight against fair value accounting is just ignoring the inevitable, many assets are just worth less today than they were yesterday and that is what should be reported and accounted for.

A hijacked thread is a good thread in my book.

Glad to hear that your near miss today was nothing more than a near miss. Amazing what water does to earth.

I remember as a young guy getting a Toyota SR-5 pickup completely flat panned in a soupy mess, the water just turns the ground to mush, and the more you dig the deeper the mush goes. Like getting out of quicksand, good you had a large machine to help. One thing about my 3.5 acres of rock, I've got no mud to worry about.

Joel

 

[deputyrpa]

Agreed deputy, debt got us into this mess and I can't see how debt will get us out. I think this is going to be a long slog.

I also think we're going through a shift, back to where less is more, people learning to live without debt and spending within their means, in the end a good thing, but for many, a painful time and for many more, delayed retirements.

I think this whole fight against fair value accounting is just ignoring the inevitable, many assets are just worth less today than they were yesterday and that is what should be reported and accounted for.

A hijacked thread is a good thread in my book.

Glad to hear that your near miss today was nothing more than a near miss. Amazing what water does to earth.

I remember as a young guy getting a Toyota SR-5 pickup completely flat panned in a soupy mess, the water just turns the ground to mush, and the more you dig the deeper the mush goes. Like getting out of quicksand, good you had a large machine to help. One thing about my 3.5 acres of rock, I've got no mud to worry about.

Joel

You have a healthy perspective Joel. The shift will be good, but not quite the "change" some were looking for. It will be tough for most, and downright ugly for some.

Mark-to-market has to go.

For the life of me, I do not know how my neighbor has put up with this clay for all those years!

 

[JoelD]

Many would side with you on the mark to market, but I think fair value accounting is here to stay and IFRS will make sure of that, seems like the SEC has pretty much dug their heals in on that one.

I'm hunkering down for a long slog. Cutting costs wherever possible and getting the boss ready for tough times. But i've never kidded myself and have always considered that times would change and sooner or later we'd face tough times and every family does, we've kept debt to a minimum and hoping that will pay off in the long run. The short run is not gonna be fun.

Joel