Has Agriculture Reached Its Peak?

[DFB]

This study suggests just that.

The study by scientists at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln argues that there have been abrupt declines or plateaus in the rate of production of major crops which undermine optimistic projections of constantly increasing crop yields.

Seems corn, grain, and rice production has reached it limits with no serious increases over the past decade...

A concern is that despite the increase in investment in agricultural R&D and education during this period, the relative rate of yield gain for the major food crops has decreased over time together with evidence of upper yield plateaus in some of the most productive domains.

It also criticizes most other yield projection models which predict compound or exponential production increases over coming years and decades, saying these do not occur in the real world. And that such growth rates are not feasible over the long term because average farm yields eventually approach a yield potential ceiling determined by biophysical limits on crop growth rates and yield.

And goes on to say that five decades of perpetually increasing crop yields were driven by rapid adoption of technologies that were largely one-time innovations

The new research raises critical questions about the capacity of traditional industrial agricultural methods to sustain global food production for a growing world population.

And according to other links attached to the news release on the study, food production will need to increase by about 60% by 2050 to meet demand and also suggests that from another report that agro ecology based on sustainable, small-scale, organic methods could potentially double food production in entire regions facing persistent hunger, over five to 10 years.

Read more here

Dramatic decline in industrial agriculture could herald 叢eak food | The Raw Story

 

[Stimw]

There is plenty of food for the future! Just watch the movie "Soylent Green" with Charlton Heston.

 

[rekees4300]

The new research raises critical questions about the capacity of traditional industrial agricultural methods to sustain global food production for a growing world population.

When the fossil fuels are exhausted, mass starvation will result. Solar powered tractors are not feasible.

 

[k0ua]

When the fossil fuels are exhausted, mass starvation will result. Solar powered tractors are not feasible.

I am glad to hear that... well not the tractor part

 

[joshuabardwell]

Solar powered tractors are feasible, in a sense. There are already people producing net surpluses of food running tractors (or walk-behind tractors) running off of biodiesel produced on site. If I recall correctly, the oil crop was sunflowers.

 

[sseelhoff]

When the fossil fuels are exhausted, mass starvation will result. Solar powered tractors are not feasible.

What about electric tractors recharged by wind or solar?

Electric tractors already exist. Not in mass production, but the possibility exists.

 

[rekees4300]

What about electric tractors recharged by wind or solar?

Electric tractors already exist. Not in mass production, but the possibility exists.

Anything is possible, much better batteries would need to be invented. It's not just tractors, our whole industrial society (and over population) is dependent on fossil fuels.

 

[sseelhoff]

Anything is possible, much better batteries would need to be invented. It's not just tractors, our whole industrial society (and over population) is dependent on fossil fuels.

At the present. Like all technologies, once a breakthrough happens, things move pretty quickly. Think about personal computers. We have more computing power in our phones than NASA had during the first moon mission.

 

[rekees4300]

That's a good point. Things especially move quickly when survival is involved.

 

[smstonypoint]

Thanks for posting the link.

The authors discuss the "yield potential ceiling determined by biophysical limits on crop growth rates and yield." This made me think about hybrid corn. If agronomists had estimated a yield potential for corn before the 1920s, could they have anticipated the yield increases that hybridization produced?

Who knows, there may be unanticipated biotechnological innovations that redefine yield potential.

Steve

 

[dave1949]

"Two years ago, a landmark report by the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food demonstrated that agroecology based on sustainable, small-scale, organic methods could potentially double food production in entire regions facing persistent hunger, over five to 10 years."

I think that is likely true in some situations. I am having trouble picturing it as a viable approach for the high-density urban areas where the majority of our 10 billion descendants are likely to be living. The economics of supporting that population in geographically low-densities, which would enable small scale ag, is something to think about too.

It won't happen until the industrial farming approach becomes too expensive to sustain. The methods are not sustainable now. So far, the cost is sustainable for most--if we are willing to accept several starving millions on the fringes, and acquiesce to ever less natural foods.

Because I am a pessimist, I think the chances are fairly high that 90% of the population will be eating from test tubes in the future. "Real" food will become an increasingly expensive commodity only attainable by the few, and by those who can grow their own. That seems to be the trend now.

 

[DFB]

It won't happen until the industrial farming approach becomes too expensive to sustain. The methods are not sustainable now. So far, the cost is sustainable for most--if we are willing to accept several starving millions on the fringes, and acquiesce to ever less natural foods.

Because I am a pessimist, I think the chances are fairly high that 90% of the population will be eating from test tubes in the future. "Real" food will become an increasingly expensive commodity only attainable by the few, and by those who can grow their own. That seems to be the trend now.

Ugg... Processed foods using chemically extracted and enhanced byproducts are pretty much the norm for food economics already. The vast majority of our commodity crops are used for just that and for world export

"Two years ago, a landmark report by the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food demonstrated that agroecology based on sustainable, small-scale, organic methods could potentially double food production in entire regions facing persistent hunger, over five to 10 years."

The economics of supporting that population in geographically low-densities, which would enable small scale ag, is something to think about too.

I think we are experiencing a lot of that now especially here in the Northeast. Growth of sustainable small farms, advancing 4 season harvest techniques, expanded CSA programs, and the proliferation of local sales thru farmers markets etc. and we need more of that! (Kind of like a take care of your own thing) From my personal experiences demand is still higher than supply

One thing the USA still has in many places is usable farmland even as that report points out its at maximum capacity for commodity cropping.

 

[dave1949]

I think we are experiencing a lot of that now especially here in the Northeast. Growth of sustainable small farms, advancing 4 season harvest techniques, expanded CSA programs, and the proliferation of local sales thru farmers markets etc. and we need more of that! (Kind of like a take care of your own thing) From my personal experiences demand is still higher than supply

One thing the USA still has in many places is usable farmland even as that report points out its at maximum capacity for commodity cropping.

Maine used to function as a "bread basket" for the coastal New England cities like New York, Boston, etc. You are correct, the growing capability exists in places not being intensively used for agriculture now.

The population of, and corresponding food demand, those urban areas has dramatically increased since the early 1900's when farms began disappearing in Maine. Even if more Maine/NH/VT/Central NY farms could be economically resurrected, and better methods increased output by 3-4 times over the past, I wonder how far their production would go in satisfying the need?

The human labor, supposing a wide-scale agricultural rebirth of rural New England, required to increase food production would bring other economic burdens along with it. The food growers need to feed themselves too. Those costs would have to be recouped in the price of food. Can that scenario compete with the test tube, or vat of chemically enhanced glop?

 

[DFB]

supposing a wide-scale agricultural rebirth of rural New England, required to increase food production would bring other economic burdens along with it. The food growers need to feed themselves too. Those costs would have to be recouped in the price of food. Can that scenario compete with the test tube, or vat of chemically enhanced glop?

Don't we have that scenario now?

 

[dave1949]

Don't we have that scenario now?

I guess that is my point. The solutions will be driven by economics and Dorito eaters. :laughing:

 

[charlz]

I think water will be the key issue more than plateauing crop yields. E.g. the Ogallala Aquifer running low.

 

[npalen]

I think water will be the key issue more than plateauing crop yields. E.g. the Ogallala Aquifer running low.

That's true but there is talk of building a "river" from the Missouri in northeast Kansas to move water for city and irrigation use out to western Kansas. The cost will be billions of $.

 

[DFB]

Seems that irrigating arid land is one way to increase growing food crops. Large tracts of land in Mexico have made productive that way.

 

[smstonypoint]

Seems that irrigating arid land is one way to increase growing food crops.

A couple of facts on irrigation in the US: USDA ERS - Irrigation & Water Use: Background

In 2007, irrigated farms accounted for 55 percent of the total value of crop sales while also supporting the livestock and poultry sectors through irrigated production of animal forage and feed crops. Roughly 57 million acres--or 7.5 percent of all U.S. cropland and pastureland--were irrigated in 2007....

Steve

 

[Depmandog]

That's true but there is talk of building a "river" from the Missouri in northeast Kansas to move water for city and irrigation use out to western Kansas. The cost will be billions of $.

I doubt seriously if that will happen in the foreseeable future. MO Gov Nixon has already threatened a lawsuit...the first of many to be sure.

Aquaponics...interesting and viable small scale (possible) solution. Small scale as in each household could produce enough vegetables and fish in a 10x10 space to sustain the family. Self contained..just add water. The fish water is pumped into gravel / sand beds where the vegetables grow, water is filtered through the growing beds and returned to the fish tank. I have seen some that are stacked vertical - lots of growing surface.

http://www.coopext.colostate.edu/adams/gh/pdf/Intro_Aquaponics.pdf