It's not a matter of cost effectiveness anymore. If the truck makers do not hit the EPA and CAFE numbers set out in the coming legislation, we will ALL be paying a gas guzzler surcharge on our vehicles.
Well, it IS a matter of cost effectiveness. From my understanding, there will be no non-compliance gas guzzler tax any more with the new round of regulations. If the manufacturer's fleet doesn't meet CAFE, they don't sell. You can't just pay a fine and pass it on to the customers any more. Those days will be over, so manufacturers have no choice but to meet CAFE.
Now, as far as cost effectiveness, if the vehicle isn't cost effective, customers won't buy it. If customers don't buy it, it doesn't help your CAFE numbers. So, if you have a truck that gets 40 MPG, but has a 20k upcharge, that's not going to do anything to your CAFE if your customers don't think the extra MPG is worth 20k. See how cost effectiveness is VERY important?
Now, that's why (I think) Ford went the GTDI approach vs. diesel. Ford knows what truck customers want, and Ford knows that buyers will see that $3k upcharge for a diesel, in which they get to pay extra for fuel, plus it's 'stinky' (the past still sticks in people's minds, and some folks just don't want to mess with diesel fuel), and Ford knows that gas will be a better sell. So, if they can come close to Ram's numbers on gas (and I think they will), with a lower cost of entry, they will be much better off in the long run. Even if Ford is 1 MPG less than Ram, selling 100k trucks at 27 MPG helps your CAFE more than selling 20k trucks at 28 MPG.
Ford put the money into getting better fuel economy across the board with a lighter, more fuel-efficient truck for the long term as opposed to throwing a diesel in for short term gains.