Here's an interesting article. It was written as investor research. (Note for the conspiracy enthusiasts, this wasn't written as advocacy
). It is the primary report cited in several investor-advisor columns this week.
Here are a few excerpts, please read the original before critiquing this.
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UBS Evidence Lab Electric Car Teardown Disruption Ahead?
UBS's Q-Series products reflect our effort to aggressively anticipate and answer key investment questions, to help drive better investment recommendations.
18 May 2017
Tearing down the world's first mass-market electric car
We are more convinced than ever that electric cars are about to reach the tipping point in the penetration curve in the next few years. This new generation of electric cars has far-reaching implications for the global autos industry, but also for many other sectors, such as capital goods, chemicals, mining, technology, and energy. The only way to better understand these implications was to tear down the first vehicle of its kind, piece by piece. So, that is what we did. We tore down the Chevrolet Bolt, which we consider the world's first real mass-segment electric vehicle (EV).
...Consumer cost of ownership (TCO) parity vis-?vis combustion engine cars can be reached from 2018 (first in EU), creating an inflection point for demand. We raise our 2025E EV sales by ~50%
Widespread impact on auto sector, technology, chemicals, cap goods and more: [compared to ICE, the difference in components and maintenance] ... A comprehensive list of stocks positively or negatively impacted in autos (OEMs and suppliers), chemicals, batteries, tech, and capital goods can be found on page 59.
On a total cost-of-ownership basis (TCO), which also factors in the Bolt's lower energy and maintenance costs (the latter is even lower than we thought), true TCO parity (true meaning the OEM makes a 5% EBIT margin) should be reached in Europe in 2023E, and in China in 2026E ex subsidies, 2-3 years earlier than previously expected. The US is likely to lag due to lower fuel prices. [Chart shows 10 years out for US, 2028].
[Lots of good charts, but impossible to copy here so go see them there]
[And a related point]:
The findings on the Bolt enable us to assess the profitability of the long-awaited Model 3, Tesla's entry into the mass segment. We estimate that Tesla will require an achieved selling price of ~$41k for the upcoming Model 3 to break even at the EBIT level. This is ~$6k above the estimated base price of $35k. As Tesla buyers are likely to order well-equipped versions (margins on the options should be ~50%), the required ~$41k threshold is likely to be well exceeded, in our view.
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Like any investment advice this is only a clue where to start digging for more information, not an authoritative overview! The most important single thing I learned in grad school was read widely, keep up with the literature in anything you might invest in, hopefully recognize trends where those who recognize it early will make money as the trend becomes more widely adopted. (Pursuing this investment approach during the unique boom of the 90's allowed me to retire 10 years early, at 54. I recognize that was mostly winning a gamble, but a well-informed gamble. No I haven't invested in Tesla, I don't understand the complexities involved in forecasting its future.)
