Electric Cars: Chev Bolt seems to be the first practical one.

IslandTractor · May 21, 2017

buickanddeere said:
Those places that stank in the 1970's from both vehicles and industry that you forgot to mention. Those areas are clean now.

Thank you EPA.

California · May 21, 2017

Didn't buy the diesel?

Look what fun you're missing!

[Not to be taken seriously].

buickanddeere · May 21, 2017

houstonscott said:
Anytime you can keep your money and do with it what you want the better. I do agree that unless you are in a very narrow position, PV is a loser. I'll describe it you want, or for those on the fence.

After the next Ontario election the cost per Kwhr of Monday to Friday daytime power from Hydro One will cost more than a PV installation. due to solar, gas and wind subsidies paid by the rate payer.

buickanddeere · May 21, 2017

California said:
Here's an interesting article. It was written as investor research. (Note for the conspiracy enthusiasts, this wasn't written as advocacy ). It is the primary report cited in several investor-advisor columns this week.

Here are a few excerpts, please read the original before critiquing this.

=================

UBS Evidence Lab Electric Car Teardown Disruption Ahead?

UBS's Q-Series products reflect our effort to aggressively anticipate and answer key investment questions, to help drive better investment recommendations.

18 May 2017

Tearing down the world's first mass-market electric car

We are more convinced than ever that electric cars are about to reach the tipping point in the penetration curve in the next few years. This new generation of electric cars has far-reaching implications for the global autos industry, but also for many other sectors, such as capital goods, chemicals, mining, technology, and energy. The only way to better understand these implications was to tear down the first vehicle of its kind, piece by piece. So, that is what we did. We tore down the Chevrolet Bolt, which we consider the world's first real mass-segment electric vehicle (EV).

...Consumer cost of ownership (TCO) parity vis-?vis combustion engine cars can be reached from 2018 (first in EU), creating an inflection point for demand. We raise our 2025E EV sales by ~50%

Widespread impact on auto sector, technology, chemicals, cap goods and more: [compared to ICE, the difference in components and maintenance] ... A comprehensive list of stocks positively or negatively impacted in autos (OEMs and suppliers), chemicals, batteries, tech, and capital goods can be found on page 59.

On a total cost-of-ownership basis (TCO), which also factors in the Bolt's lower energy and maintenance costs (the latter is even lower than we thought), true TCO parity (true meaning the OEM makes a 5% EBIT margin) should be reached in Europe in 2023E, and in China in 2026E ex subsidies, 2-3 years earlier than previously expected. The US is likely to lag due to lower fuel prices. [Chart shows 10 years out for US, 2028].

[Lots of good charts, but impossible to copy here so go see them there]

[And a related point]:
The findings on the Bolt enable us to assess the profitability of the long-awaited Model 3, Tesla's entry into the mass segment. We estimate that Tesla will require an achieved selling price of ~$41k for the upcoming Model 3 to break even at the EBIT level. This is ~$6k above the estimated base price of $35k. As Tesla buyers are likely to order well-equipped versions (margins on the options should be ~50%), the required ~$41k threshold is likely to be well exceeded, in our view.

======== end excerpts ====

Like any investment advice this is only a clue where to start digging for more information, not an authoritative overview! The most important single thing I learned in grad school was read widely, keep up with the literature in anything you might invest in, hopefully recognize trends where those who recognize it early will make money as the trend becomes more widely adopted. (Pursuing this investment approach during the unique boom of the 90's allowed me to retire 10 years early, at 54. I recognize that was mostly winning a gamble, but a well-informed gamble. No I haven't invested in Tesla, I don't understand the complexities involved in forecasting its future.)

Take away the subsidies and EV's would not exist except as toys for a few weathly Liberals.

buickanddeere · May 21, 2017

Compare the upfront purchase price, operating costs for 8 years or 200,000 miles and resale value of the same chassis. The ICE Sonic vs the EV Bolt which is built on the Sonic chassis. Or the ICE Cruze vs Hybrid EV/ICE Volt.
The EV will never break even let alone be cheaper even with the tax payer subsidizing the purchase.

IslandTractor · May 21, 2017

buickanddeere said:
Compare the upfront purchase price, operating costs for 8 years or 200,000 miles and resale value of the same chassis. The ICE Sonic vs the EV Bolt which is built on the Sonic chassis. Or the ICE Cruze vs Hybrid EV/ICE Volt.
The EV will never break even let alone be cheaper even with the tax payer subsidizing the purchase.

Not at $2/gallon gas. There is a crossover point though with gas cost. I forget exactly but it is something north of about $3.

Redneck in training · May 21, 2017

buickanddeere said:
Only if forced into the market with quotas, taxes, and incentives.

I will state the obvious. Regulations level the playing field. Taxes and incentives are used to lower the investment risk in the development of new technologies. Market forces not always work to do so. Industries cleaned their act not because they wanted to but because they were forced to. Many things that make our life better and more comfortable wouldn't happen without government suport.

houstonscott · May 21, 2017

IslandTractor said:
I agree on resale value and took advantage of it. Paid about $16K for low mileage 2 year old electric/hybrid CMax Energi still on warranty that listed originally for $37K. My wife was so impressed she went out and bought the even fancier version that self parks and paid the same for an even lower mileage 2 year old Energi. Both cars were off lease from a Ford dealer. Cars have been comfortable, fun to drive and, except for cargo space when rear seat is occupied, very practical. I use it mostly for driving around town, often 2-3 miles at a time so the 20 mile battery capacity is fine. I fill up the tank about once a month (10 gallons or less) unless I take off on an interstate trip. I also hadn't owned a small car since I sold my BMW 2002 but I made the transition pretty quickly. The CMax driving position is higher than something like a Civic so it doesn't feel small. Interior space is also pretty good. I'm 6'5" 230 and am quite comfortable even on long (400mile) drives. The Volt is also a very nice car. Sportier looking than the midget minivan look of the CMax but it has even less cargo space. Perfect for a commuter vehicle though. Don't buy one though if you have any concerns that people will think you have small hands for driving anything less than a 400hp machomobile.

You sold a 2002, big mistake.