Boy those are some revealing statements you made and I cant overemphasize how hard hitting your post is. The last paragraph in bold really hits home with a few of us in my area, especially with small bales and round bales. I hope your situation resolves itself in a positive way. Really sorry to hear about your dad. Lost mine in similar way.
Fair is fair. We live in a capitalist society and competition is king. With that being said, the small squares business is almost impossible with smaller/hobby guys selling a few hundred to a few thousand bales a year out of a small operation barn for, like you said, $4.50/bale.
Everyone knows the typical 1-3 horse owning crowd is themselves, usually strapped for money and pays the lowest price they can for hay. Thats 100’s of thousands of buyers across the country all flocking to the guys who make hay at a loss because its “fun”. They are not really in it for the money. They are in it for the satisfaction it gives them. Nobody can argue with them or what theyre doing.
It would be like an excavating company competing with a guy who excavates part time with a mini ex for $50/hour for fun/relaxation And the excavating business has $100/hour in overhead and salaries for employees.
Thats why I changed my business model from 100% feed hay, to 20% feed hay and 80% mushroom hay. I cant compete with the guys doing it for a hobby at $4.50/bale. What I CAN do that they cant is TONNAGE. I also found ways to use the equipment for other work- mainly mowing and some limited snow plowing.
There have been times in the past where I think I should use my CDL and drive a tractor trailer to haul my hay and haul for others to make more money that way, but trucking isnt really a much better proposition than farming right now.
With input prices (fuel & fertilizer the worst) being as high as they are, I think we are at/past the breaking point. Good feed hay bales should be selling for $12-$15/bale to make a decent living off making hay. I know I’ll be savaged for saying that, but I dont care. Why does a hay farmer, performing a valuable service, have to endure such low pay for the risks. Until the hobby guys all realize their hay is worth north of $10/bale, feed hay producers will have to keep prices UNDER cost to produce. Thats a losing proposition.
You may want to start thinking about mushroom hay. I dont know if you have the demand for it up there OR if you can drive it 5 hours across PA to where demand for it is high. I DO see trucks in the yard from VA and NY, so there are hay farmers doing it now.
I dont know if you’d be open to it, but do you have CDL and can you afford a hay truck and 50’ trailer? Can you ramp up production to make ~1000 tons of mushroom hay, dropping the costs of constant herbicide spraying and fertilizing? This will cut your overhead and allow cash flow for the trucking costs. Costs more to make quality hay, but if you are competing at $4.50, you might as well forget about it.
Maybe you can make connections locally for fertilizing with any poultry litter or even composted leaves that are available? When you buy tractor trailer, buy an old dump trailer. Pick up any kind of compost material at their farm and spread on your fields?