New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[CloverKnollFarms]

Noticing the same
Inventory has mostly caught up.
Dealers and private sellers prices will drop noticeably as many buyers are driven off to the sidelines due to higher interest rates. .This will cause a glut in inventory since demand will drop.
Throw in a collapsing economy, horrible economic policy and record 41 year inflation and 100%-200% increase in fuel prices and you will have a buyers market for cash buyers. Financed purchases may at least get somewhat lower purchase prices to offset higher lending rates

I’m all in with cash… Im so glad I waited this out

 

[Citydude]

I’m all in with cash… Im so glad I waited this out

A year ago I would think paying cash was ill advised. Not now. Spend the money on what you need now (not nice to have) additions to make life easier now and in the future.

 

[Torvy]

A year ago I would think paying cash was ill advised. Not now. Spend the money on what you need now (not nice to have) additions to make life easier now and in the future.

A year ago buying with cash was a bad idea. Rates are getting into the range that spending cash may be better. Holding cash is the worst thing to do in an inflationary cycle. Invest it or spend it. Every day you hold it, it loses value.

 

[5030]

Keep on mind that today, wanting to hire 500 workers and actually getting 500 new hires hired are 2 distinctly different animals.

 

[jyoutz]

A year ago buying with cash was a bad idea. Rates are getting into the range that spending cash may be better. Holding cash is the worst thing to do in an inflationary cycle. Invest it or spend it. Every day you hold it, it loses value.

Doesn’t seem to be many investment opportunities today. Stocks and bonds are both in the toilet.

 

[ultrarunner]

A local credit union ad all week.

11 month CD at 3.5%

 

[Jstpssng]

A local credit union ad all week.

11 month CD at 3.5%

Still nowhere near the current rate of inflation though.

 

[Hay Dude]

Doesn’t seem to be many investment opportunities today. Stocks and bonds are both in the toilet.

Precious metals, too. Real estate market poised to collapse. Every investment is in the toilet, unless you’re an “insider”.
Add to that 41 year high inflation and the highest fuel prices in history and we have the worst economic forecast of my lifetime.

 

[ultrarunner]

Every time Real Estate collapsed in the 39 years I have managed residential rentals the rent market has remained strong or flat.

It seems single family is always in demand and I have very low turn overs with the longest tenant going back to 1987.

Of course past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

As interest rates rise gold seems to move the other way...

41 years ago things were bleak for new grads but somehow we all managed even with home mortgage rates heading towards 15%

My first mortgage was at 13.5 % and the folks thought it nuts but it was about the same as renting not counting my down payment and as rates dropped my home went up and no cost refi let me take advantage of the lower rates...

 

[ultrarunner]

Still nowhere near the current rate of inflation though.

Very true but it's been awhile since I've seen any upward movement in rates...

My checking account monthly interest was pennies and often single digit!

 

[jeff9366]

Precious metals, too. Real estate market poised to collapse.
Add to that 41 year high inflation and the highest fuel prices in history and we have the worst economic forecast of my lifetime.

In terms of today, there remain two jobs available for every unemployed worker.

The stock market is down around 30% from its high. Inflation has reduced the purchasing power of what is left by 10%.

However, as recently as 2008-2009 the stock market fell ~65% from its pre-2008 peak.

Major swings in the stock market are terrifying but characteristic of unimpeded capital markets.

The really frightening "new" factor is rising interest rates effect on both federal and state debt.


Every investment is in the toilet, unless you’re an “insider”.

The wealthiest 10% of the population owns 90% of all stocks. One reason their investments grow is they are seldom sell. Their investments are essentially "buy and hold". Further keep in mind that great wealth is 25% held by those who inherit it.

 

[Hay Dude]

In terms of today, there remain two jobs available for every unemployed worker.

The stock market is down around 30% from its high. Inflation has reduced the purchasing power of what is left by a further `10%.

However, as recently as 2008-2009 the stock market fell ~65% from its pre-2008 peak.

Major swings in the stock market are terrifying but characteristic of unimpeded capital markets.

The really frightening "new" factor is rising interest rates effect on both federal and state debt.

Yeah I didn’t mention unemployment.

I think what Jyoutz and I are agreeing on is there’s no place to invest money for acceptable returns.

I agree the interest on the debt, especially at the FED level reaching a trillion per year is terrifying. Out of control spending is not helping

 

[ultrarunner]

In terms of today, there remain two jobs available for every unemployed worker.

The stock market is down around 30% from its high. Inflation has reduced the purchasing power of what is left by a further `10%.

However, as recently as 2008-2009 the stock market fell ~65% from its pre-2008 peak.

Major swings in the stock market are terrifying but characteristic of unimpeded capital markets.

The really frightening "new" factor is rising interest rates effect on both federal and state debt.


Every investment is in the toilet, unless you’re an “insider”.

The wealthiest top 10% of our population owns 90% of all stocks. One reason their investments grow is they are seldom forced to liquidate. Their investments are essentially "buy and hold" involuntarily. Further keep in mind that great wealth is 25% held by those who inherit it.

I don't know anything on stocks but did buy a few in my 20's to hold.... has not worked out as they were delisted or simply sit there for decades...

 

[forgeblast]

So I will be looking at a tractor with fel in the up coming year, I can hold off until spring/summer, looking at kobota, deere, ls, as these dealers are near me. Deere is closest and has the largest repair/parts facility. looks like waiting is the smart play then.

 

[ArlyA]

So I will be looking at a tractor with fel in the up coming year, I can hold off until spring/summer, looking at kobota, deere, ls, as these dealers are near me. Deere is closest and has the largest repair/parts facility. looks like waiting is the smart play then.

Can't you order something you want? Just over one year ago, we ordered a atv since it were a limited production thing. We received it in August and the dealership said it was on the only one they'll see.

 

[jeff9366]

I think what Jyoutz and I are agreeing on is there’s no place to invest money for acceptable returns.

Buy low, sell high.

You have been bemoaning that financial assets are cheap, a sentiment I share. Act on the good values available in the next six months.

 

[HawkinsHollow]

The Kubota dealer here has 2 yards FULL of everything Kubota makes. Even when everyone here was talking about a shortage of tractors, they always seemed pretty full. You gotta wonder how long is some of that stuff is going to be sitting out in the elements as interest rates rise.

 

[Hay Dude]

Buy low, sell high.

You have been bemoaning that financial assets are cheap, a sentiment I share. Act on the good values available in the next six months.

Great idea, Jeff.

Are you aware how high the percentage of the population is that is living paycheck to paycheck or with about $400 in their bank accounts?

These folks can’t afford to BUY LOW, SELL HIGH when all their spare money is going to buy inflated food & fuel.

 

[Hay Dude]

The Kubota dealer here has 2 yards FULL of everything Kubota makes. Even when everyone here was talking about a shortage of tractors, they always seemed pretty full. You gotta wonder how long is some of that stuff is going to be sitting out in the elements as interest rates rise.

Just drove past 3 Kubota dealers between eastern PA and central Ohio. Saw 4 Kubota dealerships. Lots were very full of orange steel & plastic.

 

[ruffdog]

The neighbor's new orange tractor came with zero % financing.