FOMO generally refers to buying something at the peak because you are afraid of missing out. Some people are not looking at a single thing like Bitcoin or some stock. Some people are looking at a much larger picture. This is clown world and I dont think clown world has a peak.
I think the FOMO in the housing marked is quickly subsiding. With rates more than doubling in the last year or so, banks tightening lending and inflation. In 2018 I told my wife we either move now or be stuck for what could be decades. She thought I was crazy but thankfully she listened. We would be priced out of the market due to inflation and current mortgage rates. I felt the same way with our tractor. Glad we bought when we did. For one you never want to buy during inflation/recession. Its well known that cars built during the last 2006/09 recession are junk due to shrinkflation. With the price of commodities you are either going to pay more or the manufacturer is going to find ways of cutting corners.
Lumber is coming down but its still not close to 2000-2018 prices. Lumber - 2023 Data - 1978-2022 Historical - 2024 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart With new housing start demand falling, supply and demand is working, energy cost and general inflation is what is keeping the prices elevated.
BINGO! Just turned 50, retired from the military a few years ago following a disabling reaction to a dadgummed flu shot. Former competitive runner, now can barely walk and, like you, have good days and bad days. Hard to build a financial case for tractor ownership but in the long term it'll pay off and certainly will make life easier getting farm tasks done. Made the decision last week to go ahead and buy. There's something to be said for independence (no more waiting for someone else to do my hay) and building capabilities.
I'm your age and last year I did almost 2 acres of fencing by myself, Pounding tposts by hand in Rockansas dirt, 20 or so 3 1/2 foot deep corner posts with a post hole digger. There were days I couldnt dig more than one hole. It took me 3 months to do. I hurt my arm, and my heel. It took over 6 months to recover. I will never do that again. Bought a tractor shortly there after and I will rent a t post driver for the next few acres we are doing this fall. Corner post will be done with my buddies skid steer and hydraulic auger. Getting too old and cant work like Im 25 anymore.
Don’t used machine prices track new MSRP to a certain extent? Used prices are typically a percentage of new sales price.
Used prices skyrocketed when the supply of new tractors dried up. That was supply/demand.
Well said.
Even if you were 25, I'm not sure you could have done it. The dirt here is just to rocky. I can work hard all day long and, even disabled, can outwork most younger folks. That said, I tried digging 2 holes for posts for a gate using a post hole digger and rock pick and bruised my hands so badly I couldn't finish them. A month later, I'm thinking I'll just rent an auger.
Housing ..New houses in particular are not going to come down anytime soon. Builders have backed off spec builds due to high interest carry cost, Buy once a P&S is signed they go up. Problem is that the majority of home mortgages are in the 2-3% range and those people aren't trading out of those to get into a 7-8% note..So those homes aren't coming on the market. ..What iS going to happen is when the fed begins cutting rates.. And mortgages are back in the 5s... Prices are going to explode again.
The number one reason I bought a backhoe....... and even that hits rocks too big to work out of the ground.
