Market Watch

[milkman636]

The shoe is starting to drop for that “soft landing”…..

 

[plastikosmd]

There has been so much talk of gloom and doom over the last several years that many of us are keeping our powder dry waiting for another 2009 buying chance.

Yea, jumped off the dry powder wagon in January. Unsure if/when an 09 level bump will come but this year was good

 

[edgarrian]

My thoughts on the industry and our economic reality is this. A great economy is not built on zero percent. And we enjoyed paying nothing for loans for sometime now. I remember when negative interest rates were being thrown around and i thought jesus. What are we doing. I feel like a lot of people really dont understand economics. We enjoyed historically low rates for sometime. Its allowed manufactures and contractors to increase there prices since rates were so low. The feds back in 2019 were buying up a bunch of bad debt. Meaning repo market was set to explode. They have kept the lid on that stuff for years now. Its probably on the verge of letting go.

 

[OWTM]

Yes. I just put a year’s salary into a 14 month CD earning 5%. Kinda like back in the 1980s when it was actually worthwhile to buy a CD.

Official Inflation number for 2022 was 8%, Probably higher but they don't want to tell. 5% On a CD you are still losing money

 

[jyoutz]

Official Inflation number for 2022 was 8%, Probably higher but they don't want to tell. 5% On a CD you are still losing money

I funded my CD in 2023, when inflation is significantly lower than 2022.

 

[edgarrian]

Official Inflation number for 2022 was 8%, Probably higher but they don't want to tell. 5% On a CD you are still losing money

you can get 5% for 6 months, get another for 6 months and you are making money. doing nothing. Inflation in 2023 is not 8% so you will make more.

 

[rScotty]

Looks to me like the economy is better than it has been in years. Around here, nobody fixes up their old cars, appliances, or clothing, they just buy new ones.
I'm as bad as anyone - probably worse, since I just bought new lumber to build a shed for an old tractor that can't possibly be worth as much as what it cost me to keep it out of the weather.

Not only did I pay more to build the shed than that old tractor is worth, I drove right past the used lumber yard to get to Home Depot to buy new lumber. If that doesn't prove a point then I don't know what will.

That got me to thinking about the one real economic indicator never mentioned by economists - that we will know for sure a downturn has arrived when people start fixing old things instead of buyng new ones.

So far, local businesses still have "help wanted" signs out. "Will train; no experience necessary". Wages are high and trending up, not down. BTW, that's another way we will recognize a downturn if and when it happens. Jobs will be harder to find, not easier. Benefits will be less, and wages will go down, not up.

It's all happened before. Maybe a downturn will happen someday. But that someday isn't here yet.

And while we wait, there are some good tractors out there looking for a home.... or just a shed.

rScotty

 

[tacticalturnip]

Glad things are going great where you're at, Maine is a shitshow.

 

[edgarrian]

Looks to me like the economy is better than it has been in years. Around here, nobody fixes up their old cars, appliances, or clothing, they just buy new ones.
I'm as bad as anyone - probably worse, since I just bought new lumber to build a shed for an old tractor that can't possibly be worth as much as what it cost me to keep it out of the weather.

Not only did I pay more to build the shed than that old tractor is worth, I drove right past the used lumber yard to get to Home Depot to buy new lumber. If that doesn't prove a point then I don't know what will.

That got me to thinking about the one real economic indicator never mentioned by economists - that we will know for sure a downturn has arrived when people start fixing old things instead of buyng new ones.

So far, local businesses still have "help wanted" signs out. "Will train; no experience necessary". Wages are high and trending up, not down. BTW, that's another way we will recognize a downturn if and when it happens. Jobs will be harder to find, not easier. Benefits will be less, and wages will go down, not up.

It's all happened before. Maybe a downturn will happen someday. But that someday isn't here yet.

And while we wait, there are some good tractors out there looking for a home.... or just a shed.

rScotty

wages are up but real wages are down. Basically raises are not keeping up with inflation. That is why so many people disapprove of the current economy. Inflation has compounded. Its gone up every year and never gone down. So over the last 2 years prices have had about an average of 20% increase. Your raises that you speak of have not been that much.

Fixing old clothing has been something of the past for sometime now. I personally do not know of anyone that does that. When I was a child my parents didnt do that and im 46. People dont fix appliances b/c a part can cost 500 dollars not including labor on fridge that was worth a 1000 dollars. As for cars. There are indeed very few people that wrench and you are right. Trading in car every 3-5 years have been the norm or leasing.

Fact is consumers are carrying the largest private debt ever. We are 34 trillion in debt as a country. Were spending 6 trillion a year and only taking in 4 trillion from taxes. Regardless of what biden says. He is lying about the debt.

ONe thing is for certain a recession will come. When it happens is anyones guess but we are due for one. I would suggest saving your money. Fix ur cars, perform your own maintenance. Get rid of car loans. Nothing wrong with being prepared. IF you are not living paycheck to paycheck. Thats great. iF you are then people should change that bad habit

 

[rScotty]

Glad things are going great where you're at, Maine is a shitshow

My point is the same as ever - It's a big country, big enough that things in one place really are different from another.

I was out in rural Mass/Vermont last year and thought it was nice. But I've been to Maine in the past. Not for long enough to understand wages or prices of consumer goods there, but I did look at land and house prices. I repeatedly saw 40 acres raw land going for what an unimproved buildng site costs here. And decent houses for roughly half what houses cost in in rural areas around Denver. Taxes were a lot lower too.
rScotty