Since the Election........

[deserteagle71]

An economy, at its most basic level, needs confidence that money put out will bring a return on that investment.

It's amazing what simple economic confidence will do. It's a metric that can't be quantified or qualified. It's a feeling. It's hard to explain to simple minds, but its there and needed.

^This!
And I've noticed that since the election everyone I've talked to has a much more positive outlook on the direction the country will be heading in, as well as their own well-being.

 

[ultrarunner]

^This!
And I've noticed that since the election everyone I've talked to has a much more positive outlook on the direction the country will be heading in, as well as their own well-being.

It's mostly the opposite here... everything from folks calling in sick to agencies across much of California now focused on how to minimize all impact of the election.

Much talk about loss of Federal funding that was expected to bail out things from transit districts to city budget shortfalls.

Many are going one step farther saying why do we need Federal Dollars when California pays the Fed more than it receives?

I do believe things are about to become very interesting and soon on a variety of topics...

I would be happy if I could again use my Echo Brush Cutter without fear of reprisal...

 

[jk96]

As a business owner I believe that elections do influence investment decisions, which in turn effects the economy. It also depends on your line of business as well. Someone that services government contracts would react diffetently than someone who is in retail.

Me personally I try to find the silver lining in any situation in order to capitalize on it. Stocking up with multiple years of inventory for example if I see higher prices coming. That puts me at an advantage to my competitors or increases my margins when I'm raising prices and selling inventory at last years cost. For the most part I'm planning at least 2 or 3 years ahead though so a single election doesn't have as imediate impact as you're describing.

Going back to the silver lining I mentioned. Due to the nature of my business I have been able to raise prices over the last few years to maintain my same standard of living with minimal effect on my business. On the plus side after adjusting for inflation my business and home loans have gotten cheaper. A $250k home loan doesn't seem like near as much when a new 1 ton diesel costs $95k.

 

[quicksandfarmer]

On the plus side after adjusting for inflation my business and home loans have gotten cheaper.

If you have debt, inflation is great for you. John Maynard Keynes called inflation "the euthanasia of the bond-holder."

 

[ultrarunner]

Remember when Reagan took office? I was pretty young, but it was like a black cloud had been lifted.
We were living on garden vegetables, “no frills” food and waiting in gas lines. Interest rates & inflation were sky high.
After Reagan was sworn in, everything seemed to improve.

It feels like we are in a similar situation.

I remember a profound attitude shift in that Americas best days are ahead… he also had quite a following in California as former governor.

 

[2manyrocks]

He had conviction that free markets work best, that unchecked government imperils freedom, and his reforms established the basis on which much of the prosperity since the 1980s is based, at least until recently when so much of it was squandered and put into jeopardy.

 

[Tinhack]

economic confidence

You took the words right out of my mouth. The economy is booming around here. More and more houses going up. And they aren't in the low-end market. Businesses that closed up during the pandemic are reopening now. You can see it in people's faces when traversing the isles in stores. Better times are ahead.

 

[not2old]

In MY specific area, construction is dead. You walk outside during the day-no nail guns, no saws, lumber yards are ghost towns. Few additions, garages, or decks being built. Few “XYZ Construction” signs at the ends of driveways here in “coastal” PA.
“no money moving” around here. Hope it changes soon.

Construction is booming here. Hard to get any trades without a wait. What you need there is a good wildfire to get the economy moving.(LOL)

 

[square1]

In before the lock...
At the lake we have two neighbors that are contractors. One is a GC, the other does new kitchens, no remodels.
I can count the times each of them have made in person visits to their properties at the lake over the past 2 summers on one hand. The times I have seen and talked to them over those summers they "complain" that are slammed with work.

 

[Hay Dude]

You took the words right out of my mouth. The economy is booming around here. More and more houses going up. And they aren't in the low-end market. Businesses that closed up during the pandemic are reopening now. You can see it in people's faces when traversing the isles in stores. Better times are ahead.

Our real estate prices are soaring higher, but there’s little to no construction. Its a lack of willingness to sell (holding onto low rate mortgages) and little desire to borrow against home for 7% HELOC to add major home improvements.

I think this is all interest rate driven. Maybe 7% mortgages seem low to the 60+ crowd, I can tell you right now the 25-50 year old crowd don’t think that’s low. They’d much rather purchase/improve homes mortgages of 5% or less and many are sitting on the fence until those rates return.

 

[Tinhack]

After buying a small old house in Ohio, we built a new house in the country. After the small house sold, we spent the summer in a lake-front rental (Lake Erie) while the new one was being built. The going rate at that time was ~13%. We got it down to ~9% by going to a 15yr loan and were glad to have it.

 

[Rmart30]

I work at a transload facility that handles lumber. We are booming. Record numbers of product being shipped thru us.

 

[ultrarunner]

Our real estate prices are soaring higher, but there’s little to no construction. Its a lack of willingness to sell (holding onto low rate mortgages) and little desire to borrow against home for 7% HELOC to add major home improvements.

I think this is all interest rate driven. Maybe 7% mortgages seem low to the 60+ crowd, I can tell you right now the 25-50 year old crowd don’t think that’s low. They’d much rather purchase/improve homes mortgages of 5% or less and many are sitting on the fence until those rates return.

High rates worked for me…

Because the rates were high the prices were kept in check.

My first mortgage was 13.5% and the oldsters thought I was nuts but it penciled out… bought a home with a rear cottage…

Lived in the studio cottage and the rent from the home covered all expenses within 30 months.

The lender offered a no cost refi from 13.5 to 12 so as not to loose me as rates started to drop.

Later rates went to 9 and I saw real appreciation and rents increased…

 

[not2old]

When the rates were crazy in the seventies I paid 24.5% for about six months before being able to refinance an open mortgage. Several of my friends lost their houses. Most of the time that I had a mortgage, the interest rate was between 12% and 13%.

 

[jyoutz]

When the rates were crazy in the seventies I paid 24.5% for about six months before being able to refinance an open mortgage. Several of my friends lost their houses. Most of the time that I had a mortgage, the interest rate was between 12% and 13%.

Even in 1987, my first mortgage was 10%.

 

[rumwrks]

I think it's probably difficult to separate nervous stockpiling from increased optimism.

I'm probably contributing to this in my small way. I've been pre-buying a lot of the construction material I think I'll need in the next year or two. I know a bunch of people doing the same.

 

[jyoutz]

I think it's probably difficult to separate nervous stockpiling from increased optimism.

I'm probably contributing to this in my small way. I've been pre-buying a lot of the construction material I think I'll need in the next year or two. I know a bunch of people doing the same.

Lots of people are buying things in bulk that could be affected by tariffs. I hear people talking about this. I don’t need anymore junk to store, so I’m not going to do this.

 

[ultrarunner]

Unless your income takes a hit having an existing fixed mortgage at a high interest rate shouldn't matter because you had to qualify to get it.

When every block had foreclosures here back in 2009-2012 it was because borrowers mostly willingly stopped paying because values plummeted and/or they were stuck with a loan unable to refi at a better rate because equity evaporated.

Some well to do bought better for lower price/rate and then walked away from the no equity high interest property... I know lawyers and other professionals that did this.

 

[Alan46]

You took the words right out of my mouth. The economy is booming around here. More and more houses going up. And they aren't in the low-end market. Businesses that closed up during the pandemic are reopening now. You can see it in people's faces when traversing the isles in stores. Better times are ahead.

I hope you’re right! We were under the impression that groceries, fuel and a host of other things were going to be be cut in half, now we hear that statement is being walked back!

 

[ultrarunner]

I hope you’re right! We were under the impression that groceries, fuel and a host of other things were going to be be cut in half, now we hear that statement is being walked back!

Haven't heard that in California and even the State agencies have said expect higher prices as the new formula for California gasoline will add 50 cents a gallon plus wage laws like $20 minimum for fast food chains and $30 for hotel workers phases in and this isn't counting new tax and fee schedules plus gas and electric approved rate hikes and 20 to 40% hike in insurance premiums...

I'd call it a win if today's prices held...

Just look at the price increases for Estacada Oregon Christmas Trees.