Some developers are swine.

[DarkBlack]

Can you help me out with ideas on where people are supposed to live?

Why do we actually have this problem in the first place?
We have a declining birth rate… , yet an increasing population to deal with….

 

[ultrarunner]

I believe that they are. They should be part of any deed.

I’ve bought 2 homes with deed restrictions stating no person of mongoloid or negro race may reside on property unless in the capacity of domestic servant… these are 1945 tract homes of 3 bedroom, 1 bath of 1050 square feet near the industrial section in Oakland CA.

Brothers farm deed restriction says no hog farming.

 

[lman]

Why do we actually have this problem in the first place?
We have a declining birth rate… , yet an increasing population to deal with….

That depends on who you ask. It's kind of like when a city says they need more housing and when you drive through, you see all of the empty abandoned houses that could be used.

 

[paulsharvey]

That depends on who you ask. It's kind of like when a city says they need more housing and when you drive through, you see all of the empty abandoned houses that could be used.

Thats a totally different topic; but people dont want to live in a urban center. Its often not worth the trouble of rehabbing(not just repair, modernizing too) 50-70 year old homes; 2nd homes, vacation homes; homes in undersireable areas, immigration, shifting population dynamics, ect. He'll, you want, even down to divorce, and dozens of other reasons.

I'll bet 70 years ago, a household probably averaged like 5 people; now its probably closer to 1.7.

Edit: its 2.5 now; it was 3.14 in 1970; it was 3.37 in 1950

 

[paulsharvey]

Past 8 or so years, there has been a big trend of people wanting to get their 2-10 acre homestead/hobby farms, close enough to town to commute. Another factor is the rise, and partial fall of telecommuting. Will there be a reversal in 10 years, maybe? Its not just a game of 330m need 132m homes; they have to be the right homes, in the right places, and they have to be priced at a level that they are somewhat accessible.

Add to that the on going, and accelerating die off of boomers, and what does that do? Boomers kids should all be grown and well established, meaning they dont want/need the parents house.

 

[paulsharvey]

I could easily see in 10-20 years there being a large scale moving back to medium sized urban centers, and people dont wanting to drive 1h+ to work? But, with technology, and say and auto driving car, maybe 2h commutes arent a big deal, you take a nap, watch TV, ect on the drive home?

 

[ultrarunner]

Affordability is often not the issue as much as desirability…

Seen this countless times mapping out what someone could afford and this includes good solid basic homes but wrong location for school, shopping, amenities, crime stats, etc.

Myself and several friends were determined to own and we bought dumps… I bought the least expensive single family home in a metro of millions because it was all I could afford… best single purchase ever dollar for dollar and gave me my start… still own it today.

 

[EscapedSuburbia]

One issue I see for the younger generation is the lack of starter homes. The last place I lived was growing like gangbusters so land was very valuable. A developer won't build modest 2 or 3 bedroom ranches when the same lot can hold a 2 story 3500 sq ft McMansion with a lot higher price and profit margin. There are no homes in the county I just moved out of that my grown children could afford to buy. I don't have a solution either.

 

[paulsharvey]

One issue I see for the younger generation is the lack of starter homes. The last place I lived was growing like gangbusters so land was very valuable. A developer won't build modest 2 or 3 bedroom ranches when the same lot can hold a 2 story 3500 sq ft McMansion with a lot higher price and profit margin. There are no homes in the county I just moved out of that my grown children could afford to buy. I don't have a solution either.

You want real solution? People need to get over the 1970s/1980s idea of what manufactured housing is. Still FAR from cheap, but for about $180,000; another $50,000 in land, another $50,000 in well/septic/clearing/driveway; you have nice, functional housing that lasts, for $280k. You got to get past the stigma of a "trailer", and get past idiots like Dave Ramsey (trailers always go down in value...). Plenty of manufactured homes, and modular homes reselling over $400-500k, if nice, on nice property, landscaped, ect; and they do go up in value; maybe not as fast as site build, but they do appreciate.

The far worse solution, Khrushchvekas. Not from a political statement, but from a 4-5 story, dense housing, in centralized locations... The US version, Farmers Home Administration. Company i worked for, got their start building those; 24-48 unit, single or 2 story apartments in rural smaller-medium sized towns?


Edit: $180k is a medium to nicer, 3/2 double wide. You can absolutely get them down closer to $150k if you dont get tape and texture walls and cieling. On the other end, some of the true premium ones, you can be well over $300k.

 

[paulsharvey]

As a comparison, if you haven't ever; you should tour one of these production "starting from the low $300s" developments... First, by the time you pay builder mandated upgrades, probably cheapest ones will be $350. For that $350, you're getting laminate counter tops, vinyl bathroom floors, fiberglass one piece showers, ect. Honestly, a notch below what we used to build in low income apartments....

 

[paulsharvey]

Not to flood this thread; but I have been asked point blank from people several times; "does anyone still build a Jim Walter's home". Nope. No one really does. There is a guy, friend of a friend, that does build some cheap 2/2 and 3/2, small site built homes as spec houses. They are nice, but they have a design model to really reduce costs; sono tube piers; wood framed off grade; and he does much of the framing/piers/roofing himself.

Edit: This guy buys cheap lots, and builds a couple per year, maybe 4-6; in rural subdivisions. This model doesn't work with 100k lots, but works with a $30k lot.

 

[Jstpssng]

People need to get over the 1970s/1980s idea of what manufactured housing is

Today's equivalent around here is an "Amish building"... aka shed. 12' wide, 2x4 walls.
Disclaimer; that's what I live in. I bought it 10 years ago, fully wired and insulated. I tied into my well and septic and it's fine for what it is. Yet for the same money I could have had a septic poured and capped, and been Gollum for a couple of years until I could have a house built.

 

[BackRoad]

I bought a 35 acre subdivision. It was platted in 1982 next to a Corp of Engineers lake, intended to be used by those from the town displaced from the flooding of the lake.

It was originally 15 lots on 40 acres, with only the 3 closest to the main road selling before they realized the ground wouldn't perk!

So in 2019, I bought the remaining 35 acres still subdivided into the 12 lots that never sold. The original subdivision covenants are listed in my deed, but I am the only member of the HOA and therefore the enforcer!

So I gave myself a variance to live in my RV on the property while I built my house!

So Subdivision HOA head, Maintenance head, Landscape head, and head of Sanitation...the jobs are easy, but the pay sucks!

 

[paulsharvey]

I bought a 35 acre subdivision. It was platted in 1982 next to a Corp of Engineers lake, intended to be used by those from the town displaced from the flooding of the lake.

It was originally 15 lots on 40 acres, with only the 3 closest to the main road selling before they realized the ground wouldn't perk!

So in 2019, I bought the remaining 35 acres still subdivided into the 12 lots that never sold. The original subdivision covenants are listed in my deed, but I am the only member of the HOA and therefore the enforcer!

So I gave myself a variance to live in my RV on the property while I built my house!

So Subdivision HOA head, Maintenance head, Landscape head, and head of Sanitation...the jobs are easy, but the pay sucks!

This was kinda a point I made somewhere above, that 72 house lots does not magically mean 72 houses. Depending on their business plan, they might build 2 at the front as demos, and spec homes pretty much right away. Then, again, depending on business model, they spec build others, sell them to builders, or sell them to investors/future home owners. I do know some now, if sold direct to home owner, require starting construction (or atleast getting building permits) within 12 months of closing on the property, to avoid vacant lots. Another thing some do, you have to use their builder, if you buy a lot. Others may only allow certain pre approved models. Others, its not so much that they care, their business model, is spending $1m to turn $620,000 worth of property into 72 $80,000 lots. That does sound real nice, but im guessing they paid $620k for thr raw land, another $50k in design and permitting (the land development, not the houses, thats more), and maybe $2.5M in site work, storm water, roads, ect, for a fair profit of $1.5-2.5m.

I did look on Google Earth are the area north of Goshen, looks like Paradise Valley or similar, and there seems to be a pretty consistent theme; 40-75 homes, single entrance, well buffered, slip lanes or short right turn lanes. Not exactly things of beauty, but fairly basic, functional small subdivisions. Doesn't appear to be any community parks/club houses, ect. Pretty basic, small, boring, subdivisions. Homes appear to be mid range value; moderately sized homes.

 

[paulsharvey]

People tend to be attracted to the "new" place, and if one of these sit very long, they kinda get forgotten about sometimes.

 

[ultrarunner]

With the impact and required utility hookup fees with water and sewer being the same for a 250k home as for a 2m home there just no way to pencil out building small.

That said buying an existing home with all utilities in is a way to get in the Lear’s expensive way.

Here in the SF Bay Area I see 10 single family homes listed at 300k and less.

Also 150 lots for sale zoned single family starting under 30k

The taxes and assessments are steep plus if vacant the vacant parcel tax adds thousands each year..

It’s a tough go putting up cash to make it work…

 

[paulsharvey]

Since we have already veered pretty far... Just saw a picture showing metro areas with highest foreclosures, which included Ocala FL (#5) and Jacksonville (#6), which made me pause for a second, and then wonder a question....

The Villages, Top of the World, and other age restricted communities; what happens when the owner dies and the heirs are under 55? I assume they can't take up residency, and have to sell, or maybe rent to a 55+; but im not sure. Im assuming this super HOAs have rules against rentals too... So, anyone actually know how that works?

 

[zzvyb6]

So the only surefire plan would have been to buy up the land, pay the taxes, 'farm' it and enjoy the clear horizon.

But, look at it from the original owners perspective. It's just like mine. The property is essentially the owner's I.R.A., now passed on to the daughter. It might have given them some enjoyment if the money had come sooner to their Trust for a happy retirement, but like all other situations, you can't regulate someone else's property, only thru zoning, H.O.A.s and environmental laws. Enjoy the noise, traffic, lighting, lawn service machinery, and Amazon truck deliveries, although I've found that frequent target practice during potential buyer visits tends to diminish street traffic.

If the 'development' goes south, you might be able to buy it back and make an apple orchard out of it for 1/10th the original selling price.

BTW: The extra tax' benefits are soon eaten up by the costs of extra police, fire, sewers, wider roads (and new paving for the dirt ones), coax, natural gas, electricity upgrades, cell towers, bigger schools, flooded fields, and definitely higher pay to reward county and township officials for their fore-sight. Lawyers to defend the township from angry developers who didn't like local owners resisting their activities will also be needed.

 

[Molalla1]

Not picking sides, but from the county's point of view, look at the difference in tax revenue before and after the development. I believe the phrase used is " highest and best use of the land". Their decision has very little to do with existing neighbor's feelings.

And then how will the existing school systems be affected . . .

 

[Mtsoxfan]

You want real solution? People need to get over the 1970s/1980s idea of what manufactured housing is. Still FAR from cheap, but for about $180,000; another $50,000 in land, another $50,000 in well/septic/clearing/driveway; you have nice, functional housing that lasts, for $280k. You got to get past the stigma of a "trailer", and get past idiots like Dave Ramsey (trailers always go down in value...). Plenty of manufactured homes, and modular homes reselling over $400-500k, if nice, on nice property, landscaped, ect; and they do go up in value; maybe not as fast as site build, but they do appreciate.

The far worse solution, Khrushchvekas. Not from a political statement, but from a 4-5 story, dense housing, in centralized locations... The US version, Farmers Home Administration. Company i worked for, got their start building those; 24-48 unit, single or 2 story apartments in rural smaller-medium sized towns?


Edit: $180k is a medium to nicer, 3/2 double wide. You can absolutely get them down closer to $150k if you dont get tape and texture walls and cieling. On the other end, some of the true premium ones, you can be well over $300k.

You are spot on with those numbers. They are almost identical to our build 4 years ago. We have absolutely love the construction, built to high standards with overkill in some areas.