Jim, I agree 100% for at least our areas. Bottom line is, as you said, they have little in the way of sustainable food. this drought is of historical proportions.
Good article here (full article)
Hunting Forecast, 2011-12 | | TPW magazine | October 2011
Whitetail excerpt:
WHITETAILS
Unless you started reading this forecast in the middle, you have heard as much as you will ever care to about 電rought, 渡o forb production, 渡o fawning or nesting cover, 渡o rainfall since September, 澱elow-average antlers and so on. It痴 a grim forecast if you look just at range and habitat conditions. But there痴 more to a deer season forecast than the habitat and game conditions.
Biologists refer to antler development as a three-legged stool: one leg is genetics, one is nutrition and one is age. Genetics is beyond the scope of this forecast, and probably the hardest to delineate across a landscape, anyway. Nutrition gets more ink from year to year because changes in rainfall are so visible, as they certainly are this year. Itç—´ a given; wildlife is stressed.
But often overlooked by the nearsighted is the age factor the third leg of the stool. With quail, everyone looks to the current yearç—´ hatch to determine hunting prospects. Not so with deer. A whitetailç—´ body is considered mature at 4ï½½ years, although antlers grow until about age 7ï½½. Conditions at birth also factor in. David Veale points out that the 2007 South Texas fawn crop was an excellent one, and got off to a healthy start in life. Out of a large class, more will survive. Those that did are 4ï½½ this year. Look back at last season, too. Because of excellent range conditions, deer didn稚 have to move around to find food, and the harvest was lower than usual. More carryover. Terry Turney compiled the Hill Country reports and quotes Derrick Wolter saying, é„* lot of deer did not get shot, and there should be some nice, older bucks in the mix.
In the Trans-Pecos, Jason Wagner speaks of hunters reporting seeing many 4ï½½- to 5ï½½-year-old bucks last season. Mike Miller reports for North Texas and quotes James Edwards as saying of last season: æ“¢ewer young bucks are being reported in the harvest. Landowners have seen better quality deer over the entire area. Management is helping. David Sierra reports that in the post oak region of East Texas, antler restrictions are bringing more older bucks into the harvest. The younger bucks that were allowed to walk last year are a year older now.
There can be no disputing that body conditions and antlers will be below average this year, as Charlie Newberry in Henrietta and Ralph Suarez in Ballinger and practically every wildlife biologist contributing to this report mention. Itç—´ statewide. Current range conditions, though, when coupled with low harvests of a large age class, indicate that there could be a lot of bucks in the 4ï½½-year age class and older out there looking for food this season. And where will they look? Oh, to own a feed store!