nickfank
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- Nov 12, 2014
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Here's what ERCOT has to say: At 5AM, the load in TX is about 2/3 of the load at 5PM. That 33% headroom will charge a lot of cars in off-peak hours right now with no change in capacity. Even though it's still hot when the sun goes down, as soon as the sun isn't beating down on your house, the AC doesn't have to work nearly as hard. In addition, fewer people are working at night. At the utility I worked for in Indiana the load was 1/2 at night, so TX is different but not that different.That won't work in Texas. We have temps in the 90s at midnight during summer. There is no solar being produced at that time. ERCOT keep telling us to limit power usage. What will happen with a million EVs charging overnight? I do realize some solar farms now charge batteries to pull power from during times where we don't get enough sunlight. I'm not turning off my a/c for people to charge EVs.
Source: Actual Loads of Forecast Zones Display
For folks who prefer charts over tables, here's a chart that shows the available capacity throughout the day: Capacity Available to SCED: Current Day
ERCOT is planning already, and by 2029, they expect a 1.36% increase in load due to EVs. I'm guessing that with 5 years to work on it, a 1.36% increase in load won't bring the grid to its knees. After all, you are Texans. I've heard that you know how to build stuff.
To look at it another way, they expect that "ERCOT’s electric load will grow at a rate of 2.1%/year without EV load, and 2.3%/year with EV load."
Next time someone tells you that the grid can't handle EVs, remember this study from the State where the economy is driven by fossil fuels. The increase in load that is already being handled routinely each year with nobody claiming it's a problem is ten times as large as the increase expected from EVs. That 1/10 is significant, but not a reason to claim Armagridden will result from EVs.
Source: https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2023/08/28/ERCOT-EV-Adoption-Final-Report.pdf (Take a look at page 63.)
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