Did "Sandy" storm match expectations?

[xtn]

Twenty billion in damages, huh? So with our current level of federal deficit spending, it's like we're paying to rebuild after a hurricane every week.

 

[Carl Bert]

I see one of the great differences between the "urbs" (urban or suburban) and the "rurals" as organization. Especially when lives are not being threatened, just comfort.

When I'm in the rural areas, be it Vermont or Mississippi, and there is a "problem", I or a FEW people around me try to solve it, without any organizational pattern.
Example:
A tree falls across the road. No electrical danger, no danger to humans.
I/we make sure other traffic is warned.
I take out a chain throw it around the tree, hook it to my dually and drag it out of the way, or take out a chainsaw and we cut it up. We don't want to wait for authorities, it'll take forever.

When I'm in the "urbs", things go differently.
A tree falls across the road. No electrical danger, no danger to humans.
We make sure other traffic is warned. And it's always a "we" because there are so many other people around.
Then - whose tree and responsibility is it? Whose got the better tools and knowledge to take care of it? How long will it take the authorities to arrive and clean it up with the proper tools an knowledge?

It's not much help to a solution for someone to decide they will tow it out of the way with a little Honda Fit and just make more of a mess. We need some organisation to get things done.

In a big disaster type situation, well after the damage is done, many of those in the urbs wait for a while and look for organisation, "the man with the megaphone" to step in and tell them what to do. Otherwise there can be a lot of wasted effort, like collecting food for the Red Cross which they won't take.

I am surprised there were no local community leaders to step in with a megaphone and start telling people what to pick up and what to do.

That's right ya'll country folk can really cut up a tree. Ain't ya'll proud. Is that all you can be is negative? So many families lost everything, not to mention loved ones, and all you can do is sit there and criticize. Try putting yourself in their situation, and think how you would feel, then multiply it by 100, just to get an idea of what it would be like to lose it all.

 

[ljohnson778]

There's a lot that can be done to mitigate natural disasters that is not being done. For instance, in the West, where forest fires are the most common disaster, people are advised not to have trees overhanging their house, and to maintain a defensible fireproof zone 50' in all directions around the house. Some people ignore that advise, and their house burns down when a wildfire comes through. People do love their trees, but they need to be willing to pay the costs.

Tornados are another example. Some houses are very tornado resistant. The light weight wood framed houses that stand up so well in a California earthquake turn into toothpicks when a tornado hits them. I was fascinated to watch home building in Germany, where they use reinforced concrete and precast concrete floors to build houses. The next time the Russian Army comes through, it will have a tough time knocking over houses. Durability during a disaster is a reasonable design criterion.

It's not unreasonable to make intelligent design choices in advance of major disasters. Modern building codes have resulted in buildings that fare very well in major earthquakes. Louisiana finally adopted a building code after Katrina. Everybody on the East Coast within a 100 year flood plain and with a mortgage has federally mandated flood insurance. The 100 year flood plain might get redefined after this storm, but the fact remains that almost everyone with damages is insured. When they rebuild they will have to meet FEMA flood plain specs, which means the main floor has to be at least a foot above the highest recorded water level.

Projections are for about a 30 inch rise in sea level over the lifetime of new houses, which leads to an interesting and complex design discussion.

It's not that I disagree with you... But what can the average person afford? I'm blessed that I can plan for the future, but are we all so fortunate?

 

[newbury]

That's right ya'll country folk can really cut up a tree. Ain't ya'll proud. Is that all you can be is negative? So many families lost everything, not to mention loved ones, and all you can do is sit there and criticize. Try putting yourself in their situation, and think how you would feel, then multiply it by 100, just to get an idea of what it would be like to lose it all.

Sorry that your mentality had to use my post as NEGATIVE.

My post was more along the lines of supporting those that were asking for "the man with the microphone".

I agree it was a disaster but have seen many news reports of people being interviewed and telling the reporter that this was the worst flood yet, that they have been flooded out of their houses frequently before, they ignored the evacuation orders because they had stayed before, and they and their friends never bought flood insurance. And they were planning on rebuilding AGAIN like they had before, if they could get the aid.

I think that most members of TBN, regardless of their location or political persuasion would staunchly object to giving money to known drunks so they could buy more booze when the drunks promise to only keep getting drunk.

How different is that from giving money to people who live in a danger area, have had their area devastated many times, and just want to get aid to do it over again? So they can live by the sea in what they describe as a beautiful place.

With the KNOWN sea level rising what the heck can they EXPECT?

It's gone up about 25 CENTIMETERS in my lifetime alone. That's about 10 INCHES for those of you that can't think in metric.

So how high will it be in another 50 years?

I'm running out of sympathy for people asking for aid to keep doing something they know will require them to need more aid.

 

[dave1949]

It's not that I disagree with you... But what can the average person afford? I'm blessed that I can plan for the future, but are we all so fortunate?

This is a good point. It illustrates how expensive it can be to be "poor". In this case the correct solutions are financially out of reach for most individuals and society as a whole, they/we will continue to pay for poor choices and band-aid solutions with predictable future costs, that over time, will exceed the cost of the optimal solutions. It is the financial equivalent of "running in place."

 

[riptides]

Sorry that your mentality had to use my post as NEGATIVE.

My post was more along the lines of supporting those that were asking for "the man with the microphone".

I agree it was a disaster but have seen many news reports of people being interviewed and telling the reporter that this was the worst flood yet, that they have been flooded out of their houses frequently before, they ignored the evacuation orders because they had stayed before, and they and their friends never bought flood insurance. And they were planning on rebuilding AGAIN like they had before, if they could get the aid.

I think that most members of TBN, regardless of their location or political persuasion would staunchly object to giving money to known drunks so they could buy more booze when the drunks promise to only keep getting drunk.

How different is that from giving money to people who live in a danger area, have had their area devastated many times, and just want to get aid to do it over again? So they can live by the sea in what they describe as a beautiful place.

With the KNOWN sea level rising what the heck can they EXPECT?

It's gone up about 25 CENTIMETERS in my lifetime alone. That's about 10 INCHES for those of you that can't think in metric.

So how high will it be in another 50 years?

I'm running out of sympathy for people asking for aid to keep doing something they know will require them to need more aid.

I hope you are aware, that SOME areas in NJ never saw a storm of this power. The destruction suffered by my family members was unparalleled.

Their house was built in the late 40’s. While it “looks” to have been spared, only a structural engineering firm will tell if the house is sound. The surrounding homes, fared no better, with the “newer” constructions taking the worst of it. The entire beach front has been rearranged. The beach, has been worked on, over the last twenty or so years, with replenishments and berm additions. This storm, made short work of all that.

 

[dave1949]

I hope you are aware, that SOME areas in NJ never saw a storm of this power. The destruction suffered by my family members was unparalleled.

Their house was built in the late 40’s. While it “looks” to have been spared, only a structural engineering firm will tell if the house is sound. The surrounding homes, fared no better, with the “newer” constructions taking the worst of it. The entire beach front has been rearranged. The beach, has been worked on, over the last twenty or so years, with replenishments and berm additions. This storm, made short work of all that.

This is getting to the issue. A lot of beaches have been worked on for the purpose of protecting homes, tourism, etc. The beach in Wells, Maine gets scoured away by storms, the small harbor gets filled with sand, the Corps of Engineers built a jetty to protect the harbor which in turn contributes to the beach scouring by altered wave actions and currents. The Corps dredges the harbor and replenishes the beach.

The only low-cost and stable coast is going to be one that is allowed to build dunes that will naturally advance and retreat, that has tidal marshes capable of absorbing exceptional surges--that means moving structures away from the near-coast to give enough space for that to happen. Homes protected by seawalls and beach replenishment, dredging, etc. are a constant source of expenditure that is ineffective over the long term.

In the case of Wells beach, the income from tourists, the property tax revenue from beach front homes, etc, all combine to make it difficult to adopt more sensible approaches. I imagine that is the case in many places.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

For some reason, this statement bothers me. I hope there are lots of residents already "doing."

From:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/n...fter-hurricane-sandy.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

On Long Island, there was a profound sense of isolation, with whole towns cut off from basic information, supplies and electricity and people in washed-out neighborhoods saying the felt increasingly desperate. "I just keep waiting for someone with a megaphone and a car to just tell us what to do,..."

Staten Island has been very hard hit, and of course TV showed a woman demanding that someone come right there and help her. She apparently expected disaster relief to arrive as soon as the storm was over. She apparently didn't realize that her house was gone, and it was time to leave. She's 60 years old, and wondering how she can start over at this time in her life.

I live in a natural disaster area too, except in my case it's wildfire. I can hope that my rural fire district can save my house, and I have done what I can to protect it, with a fireproof roof, siding and a defensible zone, but I could get burned out and lose everything. It's why I have insurance. I"m 65 years old and starting over would be a PITA, but not insurmountable.

Sometimes life hands you a real turd. My grandparents were well to do - my grandmother had a $50,000 dowry when they married in 1903, which was a fortune back then. They lost their money when the local bank failed in 1930, and lost the farm to the dust bowl. From wealthy they became refugees and headed for Oregon. In 1941 my parents married, then my dad got drafted. Two weeks after he got on the train my grandfather got knocked off a loading dock, broke his back and died. Not only was my grandmother poor, but she was alone. She finished her life in very humble circumstances, but lived with dignity.

 

[Larry Caldwell]

Originally Posted by ljohnson778
It's not that I disagree with you... But what can the average person afford? I'm blessed that I can plan for the future, but are we all so fortunate?

This is a good point. It illustrates how expensive it can be to be "poor". In this case the correct solutions are financially out of reach for most individuals and society as a whole, they/we will continue to pay for poor choices and band-aid solutions with predictable future costs, that over time, will exceed the cost of the optimal solutions. It is the financial equivalent of "running in place."

Natural disasters are excellent clearance projects. Houses that did not survive this storm are a perfect engineering test, that proves houses like that do not survive in that location. Either rebuilding needs to be much more expensive, or people need to take their insurance money and rebuild somewhere else. It's the sensible choice. NOLA has a quarter million fewer people since Katrina. Some of that is because Louisiana adopted a building code after Katrina, and the codes include extensive flood mitigation provisions.

The key is to only make mistakes once. Houses that were built 50 years ago were mostly "find a place to live and start a family" after WWII. They served their purpose, and now they are gone. Either rebuild them to withstand the local disaster, or build somewhere else. California has done an excellent job with its earthquake standards. New York needs to do the same.

 

[newbury]

I hope you are aware, that SOME areas in NJ never saw a storm of this power. The destruction suffered by my family members was unparalleled.

Their house was built in the late 40痴. While it 斗ooks to have been spared, only a structural engineering firm will tell if the house is sound. The surrounding homes, fared no better, with the 渡ewer constructions taking the worst of it. The entire beach front has been rearranged. The beach, has been worked on, over the last twenty or so years, with replenishments and berm additions. This storm, made short work of all that.

Last year we had a minor earthquake in Northern Virginia (5.8). This is an area relatively unknown for earthquakes Virginia Seismic Zone - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia . My house was damaged to the tune of up to $15K, but I did some work my self. We had NEVER had a damaging earthquake. I bought earthquake insurance after that ~$100/year. Probably a waste of money. I probably should buy volcano insurance.

It's to bad that your family members suffered but if they lived near the beach they lived near a danger zone. As you can see from the graph sea level has risen almost a foot since their house was built.