FWIW, It is not required that world demand double in order to double the price of fuel. In a free enterprise capitalistic market, doubling the price of a commodity requires much less increase in demand than doubling.
Petrochemicals, especially motor fuels, when observed for their elastic vs inelastic demand qualities turn out to be quite inelastic, at least so far in the run up toward $10/gal motor fuel.
Brief explanation for those of you who skipped Econ 101:
Consumption of goods or services with an elastic demand tends to decrease in proportion with increasing prices. Luxuries often show elastic demand. You have less $ so you buy fewer diamonds and life goes on. Salt and pepper, on the other hand as purchased for home consumption shows a typical inelastic demand. If salt or pepper goes up in price from $.029/lb to $0.58/lb you still buy a pound container when you get low and don't skimp on salt or pepper in your recipes because it went up in price. Demand stays the same per capita pretty much irrespective of the price.
People complain a lot but for the most part continue to drive low mileage gas gulping cars, SUV's and trucks about as much as before. People delude themselves that like in the previous oil crunch, when we all queued up on odd and even days depending on our lisc plate, it will be just a temporary GLITCH and will soon return to normal after the election.
BALDERDASH!!! Irrespective of whichever "least of the evils" gets elected, fuel prices will trend upward. Get used to it.
Myth #39.1b - As soon as reason prevails and we get our troops out of the mideast, cheap oil will flow and it will be business as usual. BALDERDASH!!!! If we only pull our troops out fast enough the mideast power vacuum created will encourage "our longtime good friend and benefactor IRAN" to step in to try to take control. That will certainly stabilize our fuel prices! Of course the "bad guys" who aren't drawn to the mideast conflict areas to fight the foreign devils, coalition troops, will be free to come over to the US to create mischief. This in fact could reduce gas consumption. If you are afraid to leave the house you WILL use less fuel.
T. Boone Pickens is OUT OF OIL!!! That is right. He is now invested in wind energy, water, and other things exhibiting nearly inelastic demand, are in short supply, and the prices of which are not being driven in a crazy manner by speculators.
The last fill up in my diesel F-250 4x4 crew cab with automatic and AC came out to exactly $100.00 and it wasn't empty. I am mindful of how and when I drive it but it is a tool and I have need of it in various circumstances and I will still be using it when it costs $200 + to fill the tank.
I recall when a "Terrible Herbst" (name of a chain) filling station in Arizona was selling diesel at $0.99/gal. (around 1990) Try telling that to kids a few years from now and they will want to know if you had to fight the dinosaurs off to get to the pumps and they'll ask how hot the big rocks were.
High fuel prices are not a glitch. Prices are going to go higher, a lot higher. Some day we will look back at corn to ethanol and scratch our heads in wonder at how we could have ever allowed politicians to use subsidies to bribe large corn to ethanol interests to support their campaigns. Of course that will be while we drive vehicles fueled by butanol from cellulosic sources that do not compete so much with human food sources.
Recall when $100/bbl for crude seemed like a far fetched fantasy? Well it has passed $127 and will likely whiz past $200 on its way to $500 so fast $200 will seem like the good old days.
Pat