Driverless Cars

[sd455dan]

Exactly. Self driving vehicles don稚 have to be perfect. Just better than the idiot driven vehicles. The race might be already won but I predict between 20 and 50 years before self driving passenger vehicles become mainstream. Self driving trucks will probably happen sooner.

Yes- and the amount of driving data gleaned is growing quickly.

Tesla just announced that it has passed the 1 billion mile mark of autopilot driving of all their combined vehicles.

 

[LouNY]

It all sounds good, BUT;
roads with no lane marking?
dirt/gravel roads and driveways?
snow storms?
power failures to traffic control devises?

AND whats going to happen when these completely non-driving idiots have to take over from an emergency situation.
With no practice no fundamentals and no idea what to do?

 

[Soundguy]

Yup. Might be good in a congested urban environment, but country road? Naaa.

 

[Reg]

I was on my way this morning to a 7 a.m. eye doctor appointment, and of course that was long before daylight. I was on a street with 3 lanes each direction; 45 mph speed limit. Suddenly the car in the left lane, and one in the right lane hit their brakes. And almost at the same instant, I saw a big black dog in the street, standing right on the divider line between my (center) lane and the left lane. When I saw him, I was right at him, too late to react, brake, etc. The dog stood still and did not get hit by either car. What would one of the driverless cars do in such a situation? The dog was not in my lane; just on the line.

Funny you should say that.
There was a "news" item on the radio a week or two ago about some of the "extended testing" that they have been doing in Australia (Aw_Stray_lee_Yah).
Seems roos were NOT anticipated, i.e. no algorithms for such large animals that don't walk or run but BOUNCE along.

A patch will be incorporated in a future release, etc.


Learning curve ?,
Sure, there is a learning curve, but so many incidents and our experiences can be "burned into" code, which is a LOT better than every teen having to go through what we went through.

 

[Reg]

The PACE of progress accelerates.
Every time I get into discussions of this sort I halve my estimate of how long it will take to get to any given milestone (Some sort of Moore's law ?)
I used to think 20 years in the future, then 10, 5, now 2 or 3 - but I have suspicions that a lot more is possible than is being released ...e.g. the big GM shutdowns could indicate retooling for (as Monty Python's show used to say) something completely different, Ford is supposedly getting out of gas driven cars, etc.

Sure, trucks will be first largely because of the economics - can drive tirelessly 24x7, might need a human assistant (who can be resting most of the time, but can't be drunk, could be on board but essentially on-call) once in a while.

GPS has had the country's roads all mapped out for a long time now and it isn't THAT MUCH data (by modern standards of large data).
The detail mapping is just more data - just data in more detail. That removes a lot of the need to "see" lane markings or take the correct lane when there are no markings, or snow covers everything.

 

[/pine]

I think many are missing the big picture...by the time driverless cars become the daily mode...I think we are just as likely to see a lot of drone like flying passenger vehicles...the actual technology is much simpler than it is for ground travel and navigation...

 

[Soundguy]

The PACE of progress accelerates.
Every time I get into discussions of this sort I halve my estimate of how long it will take to get to any given milestone (Some sort of Moore's law ?)
I used to think 20 years in the future, then 10, 5, now 2 or 3 - but I have suspicions that a lot more is possible than is being released ...e.g. the big GM shutdowns could indicate retooling for (as Monty Python's show used to say) something completely different, Ford is supposedly getting out of gas driven cars, etc.

Sure, trucks will be first largely because of the economics - can drive tirelessly 24x7, might need a human assistant (who can be resting most of the time, but can't be drunk, could be on board but essentially on-call) once in a while.

GPS has had the country's roads all mapped out for a long time now and it isn't THAT MUCH data (by modern standards of large data).
The detail mapping is just more data - just data in more detail. That removes a lot of the need to "see" lane markings or take the correct lane when there are no markings, or snow covers everything.

Remember irobot ( movie, will smith ). They had large semi tractor trailer style trucks all pilotless.

If many vehicles were pilotless, or auto piloted with a human on board, or even a pilot online via remote, then all these vehicles could use a proximity communication interface.. Basically if the one in front is stopping, it could tell its followers instead of letting them figure it put via sensor.. Same with lane changes, slowing to turn, etc.

 

[Reg]

Remember irobot ( movie, will smith ). They had large semi tractor trailer style trucks all pilotless.

If many vehicles were pilotless, or auto piloted with a human on board, or even a pilot online via remote, then all these vehicles could use a proximity communication interface.. Basically if the one in front is stopping, it could tell its followers instead of letting them figure it put via sensor.. Same with lane changes, slowing to turn, etc.

...and even better, not AT intersections, but well in advance, they could negotiate who will go "first" according to which are turning which way or going straight through.
The FLOW rate improvements would be something really worthwhile

I wanna go back to work, to work on THIS stuff (-:

 

[prof fate]

Think about what a mess those car interiors would be like after just a week or two of use!

Bruce

nope. been in a bus? School, transit or greyhound? Taxi? they get cleaned so would these.

 

[prof fate]

Remember irobot ( movie, will smith ). They had large semi tractor trailer style trucks all pilotless.

If many vehicles were pilotless, or auto piloted with a human on board, or even a pilot online via remote, then all these vehicles could use a proximity communication interface.. Basically if the one in front is stopping, it could tell its followers instead of letting them figure it put via sensor.. Same with lane changes, slowing to turn, etc.

15 years, sure.
The transition is gonna suck...NO self driving car will break the law. Too much liability, will set back the fledgling industry, etc.

SO once say, 10% of cars are self driving traffic will be NUTS. I drive hiways - NOBODY does the speed limit, except maybe one old person. 55? try 70. When a large percentage can follow at 3 feet and don't speed it's gonna cause issues with the rest of the drivers - road rage? You've not seen anything yet.

Second, at an intersection, many 'roll' the stop sign - the self driver won't do that. Ever. And they won't pull out if they see something in the road - like other drivers rolling the stop signs. So go ahead, pull out in front of a self driving car because it WILL stop. every time.

So there will be some kind of transition...be that cars with level 1 or 2 self driving, communication, etc, nasty laws/penalties - cars can easily have cameras on them, they already record tons of data about your speed, stopping G's, etc.