Driverless Cars

[Gale Hawkins]

Having been a delivery driver, I don't see the tech anywhere close to the situations I had to face. I've driven across country 22 times. There is no way AI has a better solution. It can't for instance say, It will take the longer route, to avoid a congestion, that is built in to its algorithm. Thats what people can do. I can enjoy the different route, the longer route, even if it doesn't save me time, the other longer route enriches my life. That is something a computer can never do.

We're looking at 2050 for self driving vehicles for the general public I expect. Look for it first in planes, trains and ships.

 

[3930dave]

We're looking at 2050 for self driving vehicles for the general public I expect. Look for it first in planes, trains and ships.

Not Planes, Trains, and Automobiles ?

Planes Trains and Automobiles Going The Wrong Way - YouTube



If we could just bring John back......... he'd do a great Driverless Car version :laughing:

Rgds, D.

 

[crazyal]

Usually what the argument comes down to is those who look at conditions being either worse case or best case. For example, the string of self driving cars being 2 feet apart. On dry pavement that could be possible but since every car is different that's not going to work on a snow covered road when one of the cars has studded snow tires while one of the cars behind it has all seasons. Even a wet road would be an issue. The car in front is going to stop as quick as possible while the following cars will have to react and hopefully stop as well.

I look forward to the day when I can fill up my car, plug in a destination, and relax. Maybe even take a nap while the car drives until it needs gas (or a charge). I just don't think it's as close as some people think.

 

[Raspy]

Usually what the argument comes down to is those who look at conditions being either worse case or best case. For example, the string of self driving cars being 2 feet apart. On dry pavement that could be possible but since every car is different that's not going to work on a snow covered road when one of the cars has studded snow tires while one of the cars behind it has all seasons. Even a wet road would be an issue. The car in front is going to stop as quick as possible while the following cars will have to react and hopefully stop as well.

I look forward to the day when I can fill up my car, plug in a destination, and relax. Maybe even take a nap while the car drives until it needs gas (or a charge). I just don't think it's as close as some people think.

It does seem like a long way off, here in the real world. But it's nice to have a goal in mind that can lead to research and development. It's remarkable how far the technology has come.

Autonomous cars, as you describe them would be a game changer. Just relax and watch the scenery on longer trips as the miles add up. Like being on an airplane, except no airport security, parking, crowds, etc. The voice activated GPS would tell the car how to get there instead of telling the driver how to get there. Cars could be rented from a warehouse where they would be stored while charging and waiting for a call. They would drive over to meet you at home when needed. They could also carry on conversations, play your favorite music, make restaurant recommendations, make reservations based on predicted arrival times, point out points of interest, etc. Voice recognition is already very advanced, so by the time they become available it will be as easy to talk to them as talking to a person. Ride sharing would look different because none of the passengers own the car. It could make combined trips all over the area then return to the warehouse. As cities become more crowded and younger people feel less inclined to own a car, this system makes more sense. Call for an Uber and there is an autonomous car already in the neighborhood on it's way back to the warehouse, so it stops by for your short trip of a mile or two and then proceeds on to where it was going before you called. Very quick response, cheap, and no hassle. Every Saturday morning at 9AM, one shows up to deliver you to the farmers market. Then another delivers Grandma for Sunday dinner. No car insurance, payments, repairs, maintenance, etc. Not for everyone, for sure, but workable for a lot of folks in the city, certainly. But then comes the other security problems. Terrorists simply programming bomb filled cars to go to their intended target, or being hacked to run at 100 MPH in town, etc.

Living in the country, I'll probably still be firing up the Cummins to manually drive to town! That is, unless fuel is 10 bux a gallon by then. I might even go for a casual Sunday drive in the old Mercedes and stop occasionally to see the scenery. OMG! How primitive!

 

[Reg]

We already HAVE "worst case".
A lot of it is amateurs "training" the next generation, but a lot more is the "examples" that they see every day of speed, rolling stops, failure to yield, running red lights, etc.
Cavalier attitude ?
Sure, Y'ain't a "Driver" 'til You've been cited 3 times.

I am (still) contributing to it by giving practice sessions to student drivers.
I can't pass it all along, nobody can, it took a LONG time to accumulate, not ALL of it is relevant "wisdom" anyway.
I try to NOT pass along my bad habits, at least not the WORST of them.

As to WHY they need to make note of a cyclist 1/4 mile away that is coming TOWARDS them on a country road - well, at least THAT grandchild asked why I had pointed out the cyclist.

 

[Reg]

re earlier post re how "close" autonomous vehicles may be.

To misquote my passenger side mirror; Events in the future are closer than they appear.

I believe that all the enabling technologies are already HERE and have been for quite a while.
With the exception of IDIOTS climbing into the back seat to get video of their Tesla "driving itself" public acceptance is lagging.
{Teslas are NOT "self driving", they have some fairly advanced driver assistance features.}
Regulatory acceptance is lagging even more - but legislation has ALWAYS lagged progress - and probably should.
================================================
BTW, I test "drove" a Tesla 3 last week.
I expected a different kind of car, but it was differently different.
First up; The door mirrors were very small - explanation; you're not expected to use them in quite the same way(s).
There is a HUGE tablet in the center that is supposed to be used for a LOT of driver controlled functions and settings - that and voice control, siri style.
I commented that I would prefer that the move away from "dash" instruments be toward heads up display, the test drive sales guy countered that with something about engineering out the "need" to check instruments.
I think I countered with "so why display that stuff on a tablet screen".
It devolved into a safety concern about near focus to far focus being ONE of the problems with texting - I would still prefer head up display of whatever I still need to look at - to keep far focus.

Next; The steering is quite a bit HEAVIER than most cars, suvs, or light trucks.
Supposedly there is a setting for that.

Auto-pilot mode; Unfortunate naming, but the lane following and spacing to the vehicle in front was a LOT smoother than the Volvo I had tried a couple of years ago (OK, progress).

Regenerative braking; When backing off the accelerator this was VERY noticeable, it felt like a big engine in a light car with manual transmission in one of the low gears.
Another setting, although I didn't try a lighter one and by the end of the test drive I had probably trained my right foot to do what I would do with a manual trans in low gear to moderate the "engine braking".

There are some weird(to me) signalling protocols that have crept in from the computer and phone cultures, e.g. double tapping of brake pedal and turn signal stalk.

Overall I liked it, but it would take some getting used to - less than a week, maybe 100 miles of mixed town/country/city driving, no more than any other "new car" adjustment.

I probably WON'T buy one, it is low to the ground.
I am old, large and inflexible.
It is NOT easy for me to get into or out of, probably harder for my spouse.
Light truck sized SUVs fit us more easily.

HARD to believe that Musk didn't see the WWII baby boomers as a market sweet spot in their retirement years - maybe their NEXXT one will be easy entry/exit ?

 

[prof fate]

A few companies are working on OTR self driving trucks. Cross any interstate in teh wee hours and you'll see hundreds of trucks parked - drivers sleeping.
If trucks could move 24/7 you'd have no driver shortage and need far fewer trucks, lowering the cost of capital, the cost of transport. And making the owners richer - so it WILL happen.

Drivers will take over at terminals in each city for local delivery.

But to cross I-70? yeah, robots will be doing that within a decade.

As for planes, they fly themselves now and can land/takeoff but still have humans around to verify that part of the flight. It's reaching the point pilots fly so little that when they need to they can't!

Ships... Rolls-Royce Wants to Fill the Seas With Self-Sailing Ships | WIRED

Having been a delivery driver, I don't see the tech anywhere close to the situations I had to face. I've driven across country 22 times. There is no way AI has a better solution. It can't for instance say, It will take the longer route, to avoid a congestion, that is built in to its algorithm. Thats what people can do. I can enjoy the different route, the longer route, even if it doesn't save me time, the other longer route enriches my life. That is something a computer can never do.

 

[prof fate]

Cities first, or inter states. then slowly other places.
Probably a long time till it's everywhere.

Electricty, phones, cable tv, high speed internet..all in cities first and slowly working out to rural areas. I think everywhere has elec and phones. I have a friend that has no cable...too rural (and it's 40 miles from a major city).

So cars will be that way..what, 5 years till city use? as in uber/google/apple cars. Not so much tesla's version of self driving cars for you and me. Not for another 5 years maybe.

Who can say...the 'tech pack' that enables self driving has dropped from $100k to $1700 in less than 5 years...in 5 more computers will be much faster, tech cheaper and more wide spread.

AT&T in 1985 did research to determine how many cell phones will there be in 2000. Best guess was 985,000. The real number ended up being 120,000,000. And that was long before the smart phone.
So even teh best brains today won't get it right, guesstimate wise.

My mother worked in computers starting in 1951, she had to explain to people what it was (a computer). In HS (late 70s) I talked about going into computers, her and her coworkers said there's no future in it - you only need so many accounting, payroll and inventory programs. There will only be 3 big programming houses, 4 computer companies. Boy were they wrong!

Much of the revolutions come from OUTSIDE the industry...tesla? google and uber? making cars? Yep.

PC's were invented by ... IBM, but you can't buy an IBM computer today.
Nokia was KING of cell phones...till apple, a computer company, came out with a phone. Who has a nokia now?
The micro chip was invented by Texas Instruments. I had TI calculators way back when. Anyone heard of them lately? They didn't bring about computers.

Those 'outside' of the main company/industry are the ones that seem to innovate and make new markets and products.

Usually what the argument comes down to is those who look at conditions being either worse case or best case. For example, the string of self driving cars being 2 feet apart. On dry pavement that could be possible but since every car is different that's not going to work on a snow covered road when one of the cars has studded snow tires while one of the cars behind it has all seasons. Even a wet road would be an issue. The car in front is going to stop as quick as possible while the following cars will have to react and hopefully stop as well.

I look forward to the day when I can fill up my car, plug in a destination, and relax. Maybe even take a nap while the car drives until it needs gas (or a charge). I just don't think it's as close as some people think.

 

[aczlan]

I probably WON'T buy one, it is low to the ground.
I am old, large and inflexible.
It is NOT easy for me to get into or out of, probably harder for my spouse.
Light truck sized SUVs fit us more easily.

HARD to believe that Musk didn't see the WWII baby boomers as a market sweet spot in their retirement years - maybe their NEXXT one will be easy entry/exit ?

That one is already here, they call it the Model X.

Aaron Z

 

[Gale Hawkins]

That one is already here, they call it the Model X.

Aaron Z

Thanks for that info. I could get in and out of the X I think if I had $100K that I would never otherwise need.

Our Week in the Tesla Model X — Cars.com - YouTube