Driverless Cars

[Redneck in training]

The light at the end of the tunnel joke is so old that it is probably forgotten by many.

WRT the gas crunch in the 70s and hybrid vehicles; I remember the Renault "Le Car" (Renault 5 in Europe) that were converted to run with an even smaller engine charging a battery pack and driving through IIRC aircraft engine starter motors.
I still LIKE the idea of a small gas engine that puts out very little power, but buffers it to a battery for PEAK power demand.

The other thing I haven't seen exploited much is that the area of hood, roof and trunk lids could be used as solar collectors - possibly collecting enough "free" energy while folk are at their place of work for the drive home.
A local company has provided shaded parking for many of their employees, utilizing the roof for solar collectors.
Popular with the employees in summer and winter.

The problem with solar is the energy flow is low (1 kW/m2 perpendicular to the sun). In example Ford Expedition area of hood plus roof is about 75 sqft=7 sqm. Net yield of energy after processing by electronics is about 15%. So ideally the PV could produce 7 x 0.15=1 kW. Since the hood and roof is horizontal the orientation of the PV is far from ideal the energy yield is only fraction of 1 kW. In other words is not worth the effort.

 

[vvanders]

Not really sure what you mean by the tunnel/train analogy. Yes, sedan sales are soft, with truck and pseudo-SUVs the strong sellers these days, but gas is cheap today. What'll happen if prices spike again (and we know it will)? These companies are gonna be caught flat-footed like they were during the 70s gas crisis.



Key word here, "most". What would you do if you needed to take a trip longer than a couple hundred miles, or to somewhere lacking quick-charge facilities (such as an off-the-grid camp)? I've never even seen a Tesla in real life, let alone driven one, but I'd imagine the range drops considerably in either hot (A/C) or cold (heater) weather.
I always wondered why the technology GM used in the Volt (ie-electrically powered, but an on-board generator) didn't catch on. To me it makes waaay more sense than a straight electric that needs to be charged with shore power. How long does a "fillup" take? I'm under the impression it's several hours, even with the high-current "fast" chargers.

Getting back to the viability of autonomous vehicles...I'm sure someday the technology will improve to the point where they're at least somewhat capable (at least in urban/suburban areas), but is there a market for them other than those who need to be the first on their block to have the latest gadget? .
Again, maybe for city dwellers or others where owning a vehicle is more of a hassle than it's worth this might make sense, but I just don't see it happening in my lifetime out here in the sticks.

Fast DC charging is actually pretty quick these days the standard 120kW VDC on your average 80-100kW pack is going to take 30-40 minutes to give you a 0-80% charge. I starts fast at 0-35% and tapers as the pack gets fuller.

For me I don't think we'll ever see 100% autonomy, much in the same way there's not 100% IFR-only airplanes. For the standard/easy cases thought, bring it on. We've got a 1st gen "auto pilot" which is pretty impressive at how well it works given the limited inputs it has. For me however the killer feature was rush-hour traffic. It's a huge shift in the amount of mental energy it takes from being actively stop/start to instead looking for cases where someone may cut you off and you'd need to intervene.

 

[Oaktree]

About 25 years ago the University of Maine had an older S-10 regular cab which was solar powered; the panel covered the entire pickup bed.

As others have noted, that's not very practical.
Years ago I remember reading an article in (I think) Mother Earth News about someone who converted a Dodge Dakota to run on wood. He'd built a wood gasifier and would feed it with scrap wood to power the truck. Like so many articles in MEN it was long on innovation but short on practicality...the gasifier and wood supply took up most of the bed, sort of defeating the purpose of a truck. Clearly the author had way too much free time on his hands. ISTR, he still needed gasoline to get it started.

For me I don't think we'll ever see 100% autonomy, much in the same way there's not 100% IFR-only airplanes. For the standard/easy cases thought, bring it on. We've got a 1st gen "auto pilot" which is pretty impressive at how well it works given the limited inputs it has. For me however the killer feature was rush-hour traffic. It's a huge shift in the amount of mental energy it takes from being actively stop/start to instead looking for cases where someone may cut you off and you'd need to intervene.

At some point way down the road it might be viable in that situation. Thing is, you'd really need a critical mass of these vehicles that could inter-communicate to make it even remotely viable. Are all automakers going to come up with a standard? They can't even seem to standardize ergonomics (ie-location & operation of controls).
A bit of a chicken-or-egg situation...the masses aren't going to buy them until they're ready for prime time, and they really won't be there until a good-sized percentage of the vehicles on the road are so-equipped.
Now maybe they'll be the next smart phone...a gadget that somehow becomes a "must have", maybe not. With modern vehicles lasting as long as they do, it'll likely be decades before we're there.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Oaktree that is a good point about the long live to today's vehicles.

A 98 year old pasted 9 days ago. He was driving his 20 year old town car regularly until 2018 when he only drove it once and told his 70 year old son that he was through driving. It still is in the carport and I expect it is still a great car.

Now that I am only a couple years away from being 70 I am starting to notice nice 20-30 year old non restored cars are being driven by folks 80+ that may have bought their "last new car" around the time they retired.

I still see it being 2050 before 50% of vehicles on the road are truly self driving. Old minds do not change often. Now our son and daughter are 21 and really are not into cars the way I was when I was 21. It blows me away how they are more into function than statement making. Body styles are going to all move towards the most functional design energy wise. Heck to me most car brands of new cars basically look the same with the same features.

The driver assist features will keep improving and over time our "Full" manually operated vehicles will go to the junkyards opening up a spot for newer technology.

 

[Jstpssng]

As others have noted, that's not very practical.
Years ago I remember reading an article in (I think) Mother Earth News about someone who converted a Dodge Dakota to run on wood. He'd built a wood gasifier and would feed it with scrap wood to power the truck. Like so many articles in MEN it was long on innovation but short on practicality...the gasifier and wood supply took up most of the bed, sort of defeating the purpose of a truck. Clearly the author had way too much free time on his hands. ISTR, he still needed gasoline to get it started.



At some point way down the road it might be viable in that situation. Thing is, you'd really need a critical mass of these vehicles that could inter-communicate to make it even remotely viable. Are all automakers going to come up with a standard? They can't even seem to standardize ergonomics (ie-location & operation of controls).
A bit of a chicken-or-egg situation...the masses aren't going to buy them until they're ready for prime time, and they really won't be there until a good-sized percentage of the vehicles on the road are so-equipped.
Now maybe they'll be the next smart phone...a gadget that somehow becomes a "must have", maybe not. With modern vehicles lasting as long as they do, it'll likely be decades before we're there.

It wasn't meant to be practical per se; the students even said that they did it to show what could be done. Nevertheless even if it isn't used as a pickup per se, you still can commute with it, and it will carry more than the average sedan. I don't remember if they had batteries to help run the engine- Er, motor. Wood burning engines is actually old technology; they were using it overseas during the fuel shortage of WWII. Mother Earth News had an article years ago telling how to convert a gas car to electric, and more recently I've heard of a farmer who converted his Farmall Cub so that it ran on electricity. In both instances they were using lead acid, which is a limiting factor. Yet these are people who are going out and trying things which they believe in, rather than trying to get the government to force us to do things their way. To me one of the best things which can come out of EVs is better battery technology; for people like me who don't need a full house generator, better batteries will more easily enable me to run my refrigerator and freezer during the rare power outage; and have power at a remote camp w/o listening to a generator rattle all day long.

 

[prof fate]

They'll have no choice.
First, elec cars need $300/yr in juice vs 3k for a gas car.
Second, they have 20 moving parts instead of 20,000.

So elec will win out - we're at the tipping point now.

Self driving..you can spend what, $450/month on your car, plus insurance, gas, maintenance .. OR... hit an button on your app and have a car show up for $5. 40 trips to work and back in a month, 10 more per week (grocery, eat out, ec) - 50 or 60 trips at $5 each is $300...and no insurance or fuel cost. And if you subscribe it may be cheaper. And no parking. and no running your kids or old mom around...

The benefits will far outweigh any negatives for 1/3 to 1/2 of americans. And this is before any major changes that will be side effects (like texting is now, or cameras on cell phones replaced cameras, etc)

And when it's everywhere...you'll have drone tractors and mowers...wait and see.

Business-wise, I find this point very interesting.....

Much of the billions that vehicle companies have made centre around marketing lifestyle products to us "unique individuals".......

So.... what happens to their profit margins when a big chunk of the "driving" public is only using autonomous fleets of appliances ? The corporations that own those fleets are only going to care about 2 things..... Cost, and Reliability.

I'm used to this kind of race-to-the-bottom with electronics companies, but I thought the vehicle manufacturers were smarter than that.....

Rgds, D.

 

[prof fate]

Depends..

how long did it take for flip phones to vanish? landlines? Computers - well, I know MANY that used to have a latptop, now have just their phone or maybe a tablet for all their 'computing' needs. My girlfriend is one - iphone and NOTHING else, needs nothing else. My kids...same.

the gov't did a junker/clunker buy back a few years ago..took lots of old cars off the road.
Taxation - carbon tax, fuel taxes could force old cars off the road.

Self driving car doesn't crash...what do you think the insurance is going to be? that would make 'old fashioned cars' way too expensive to insure.

Oaktree that is a good point about the long live to today's vehicles.

A 98 year old pasted 9 days ago. He was driving his 20 year old town car regularly until 2018 when he only drove it once and told his 70 year old son that he was through driving. It still is in the carport and I expect it is still a great car.

Now that I am only a couple years away from being 70 I am starting to notice nice 20-30 year old non restored cars are being driven by folks 80+ that may have bought their "last new car" around the time they retired.

I still see it being 2050 before 50% of vehicles on the road are truly self driving. Old minds do not change often. Now our son and daughter are 21 and really are not into cars the way I was when I was 21. It blows me away how they are more into function than statement making. Body styles are going to all move towards the most functional design energy wise. Heck to me most car brands of new cars basically look the same with the same features.

The driver assist features will keep improving and over time our "Full" manually operated vehicles will go to the junkyards opening up a spot for newer technology.

 

[prof fate]

1n 1985 cell phones existed. large, bulky, expensive. ATT did a study and concluded by 2000 there would 985,000 cell phones in use.
By 2000, the reality was 120,000,000 were in use. And Kodak had one of ti's best years ever!

8 years later a company that never made a phone took over the market and changed everything - the iPhone appeared.
4 years later kodak was out of business. they invented the digital camera, but phone cameras did as much to kill them as anything (and is killing traditional camera companies now).

eReaders - flop. Tablets? Success!
PDA - remember them? Not a big success. Smart phones? EVERYONE has one, or so it seems.

1n 1900 there were no roads, no gas stations, no cars to speak of. By 1913 all that changed. 13 years and we created 3 new industries and tossed out the reliable horse we'd been using for thousands of years.

I grew up without a microwave oven. I don't know anyone today that hasn't got one - or more than 1 even. Too damned convenient and cheap.

Now maybe they'll be the next smart phone...a gadget that somehow becomes a "must have", maybe not. With modern vehicles lasting as long as they do, it'll likely be decades before we're there.

 

[Jstpssng]

1n 1985 cell phones existed. large, bulky, expensive. ATT did a study and concluded by 2000 there would 985,000 cell phones in use.
By 2000, the reality was 120,000,000 were in use. And Kodak had one of ti's best years ever!

8 years later a company that never made a phone took over the market and changed everything - the iPhone appeared.
4 years later kodak was out of business. they invented the digital camera, but phone cameras did as much to kill them as anything (and is killing traditional camera companies now).

eReaders - flop. Tablets? Success!
PDA - remember them? Not a big success. Smart phones? EVERYONE has one, or so it seems.

1n 1900 there were no roads, no gas stations, no cars to speak of. By 1913 all that changed. 13 years and we created 3 new industries and tossed out the reliable horse we'd been using for thousands of years.

I grew up without a microwave oven. I don't know anyone today that hasn't got one - or more than 1 even. Too damned convenient and cheap.

Now you know of one person who doesn't. Not that I'm opposed to them, but my last one was a heavy duty model which didn't fare very well when I tried to use it in my sub zero camp. I won't have another until I am ready to buy something as good.
I haven't had a microwave in about 4 years, and to be honest I seldom miss it.

I got my first cell phone in 1996 after getting trapped on a dead end private road when they hauled in multiple loads of gravel, blocking the road. When I ditched my landline my cell carrier indicated that it wasn't acceptable, as they were supposed to have a "regular" phone for contact purposes. Now I have gone back to a cord and ditched my cell, because as the phones got "better" the signal got worse, and I can no longer hit a tower from my house. (I am allowed my employer's phone for personal use; but as I just mentioned the service stinks and I often plan my day around being home if I need to make phone calls; despite all of the "modern technology" I've gone around full circle to the way I did it 40 years ago.

 

[prof fate]

I know people without houses, cars, phones - they're rare though.

Some things are very regional - I can't tell you the last time I rode a public bus, rode a train once when I was 4, a plane when I was 7, never a greyhound type bus. Been in a taxi twice that I can remember.
yet many fly all over without a second thought, i bet folks in nyc take taxis often and would think not taking one as odd.

Self driving pods will occur in cities first - and no doubt be VERY popular. Look at how uber has taken over. Hasn't as far as I know displaced traditional taxis (but i'm rural). And uber wan't legal in most of PA till a year ago (if htat).

I'd love an elec car - as a second car for now. Self driving...well, I can see some benefits for self parking for sure. coming home drunk from a bar, sure. How long till we see them? Not long IN CITIES under controlled conditions - less than 5 years. Google (waymo) and apple perhaps, uber maybe.

I think once they come it will spread rapidly - like cell phones, vcr's, CDs, etc.

20 years ago everyone bought music. Today nobody does..spotify, apple music..have ALL the music there EVER WAS for $15/month. And nobody means nobody under 20, 25 or so.

Watch this...
Introducing Waymo One, the fully self-driving service - YouTube