just when you thought you knew what stupid was

[bnold]

EDIT: Updated with more accurate numbers.

Those numbers are wrong. Look just at the US.

Deaths: 168,000
Infected: 5,300,000

Death rate = 168,000/5,300,000 = 3.2%

So, survival rate is 96.8%.

Let's extrapolate that. If we remove all safety protocols and strive for herd immunity, we need at least 70% of the population to get sick ( https://www.journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(20)30154-7/fulltext).

The US population is about 350,000,000.

So, 350,000,000 x 0.7 = 245,000,000 infected

245,000,000 x death rate = 21,000,000 x 0.032 = 7,840,000 dead.

Now, estimates of the death rate actually put it around 0.6% because not everyone that has it knows they do ( research article can be downloaded here. This is data from Indiana, so I am assuming the US in general will be similar - Population Point Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Based on a Statewide Random Sample — Indiana, April 25–29, 22 | MMWR)


So, if we just let it run its course we can expect:

350,000,000 x 0.7 x 0.06 = 1,470,000 deaths.

That's a LOT!!!

Paraphrasing what my dad always told me, "Do the math." (i.e., don't blindly trust what other post on social media).

Here is some terrible math, so 5M cases over largely the past 5 months, to get to 70% infection at that rate will only take another 20 years, don’t worry, we can keep paying the public in $600 funny money every week, and a other $1,200 every couple of months. Keep industry at a crawl, I think we will be fine...

Health care is hurting pretty badly with all the restrictions (no patients), business are failing, seems like a ploy to get more sheeple on the government tit to me.

 

[RSR]

Here is some terrible math, so 5M cases over largely the past 5 months, to get to 70% infection at that rate will only take another 20 years, don’t worry, we can keep paying the public in $600 funny money every week, and a other $1,200 every couple of months. Keep industry at a crawl, I think we will be fine...

Health care is hurting pretty badly with all the restrictions (no patients), business are failing, seems like a ploy to get more sheeple on the government tit to me.

You're right in that economics plays into the decision. However, the hope is that in a year, we will reach 70% immunity through vaccines.

 

[k0ua]

James,

Were either you or the wife actually tested for COVID ? (using either PCR or antibody)

No, the doctor told the wife, there was no point to testing as he was 100% certain she had Covid-19. I did not seek medical attention. Many people from the church did get tested, and tested positive for Covid-19, And in the last week here in Taney county there has been another "surge" of infections. Many hundreds now in our basically rural county. We still have only had 3 deaths though.

In my opinion, most of us are going to get Covid-19 or have already had it. Whether a vaccine will be forthcoming or whether it will be effective, I don't know. I do know that the majority of us are going to survive if we do get it.

 

[Hay Dude]

About mechanics or masonry, yes. But when you use experts in those fields for guidance on important unrelated topics such as pandemic medicine you prove that you really do not know what stupid is.

Well said.
While all of us should question authority with due diligence, relying on a brick layer for expertise on complex medical advice over well vetted scientists is a pretty extreme reach.
Now if the guy lays bricks as a hobby and his full time job is an epidemiologist, thats a different story. :laughing:
I can build a home, or harvest 1000 tons of hay a year, but I’m just some guy who mows lawns :laughing:

 

[CalG]

Well said.
While all of us should question authority with due diligence, relying on a brick layer for expertise on complex medical advice over well vetted scientists is a pretty extreme reach.
Now if the guy lays bricks as a hobby and his full time job is an epidemiologist, thats a different story. :laughing:
I can build a home, or harvest 1000 tons of hay a year, but I’m just some guy who mows lawns :laughing:

With this position in mind, Where to "politicians" such as governors and mayor fit in? And how about B. Gates?

Do you shut 'em down for lack of credentials.

I do! I can smell arbitrary and capricious a mile away. Down right stupid even farther.

(You can go out on the lake on a sail or row boat, but not in a power boat) in example.....

 

[Citydude]

This never makes the news.

 

[Hay Dude]

With this position in mind, Where to "politicians" such as governors and mayor fit in? And how about B. Gates?

Do you shut 'em down for lack of credentials.

I do! I can smell arbitrary and capricious a mile away. Down right stupid even farther.

(You can go out on the lake on a sail or row boat, but not in a power boat) in example.....

I see your point, but I think they usually have a “medical expert“ on their staff giving them “expert” information.
For example, our Governor, the esteemed & honorable Governor Tom Wolf has the esteemed & honorable doctor Rachel Levine on his staff (I hear she is actually a pediatric psychiatrist)
Even with this “heavyweight epidemiologist“ of his staff, he is still arbitrary and capricious. :laughing:

 

[Hay Dude]

View attachment 666283

This never makes the news.

I think she should run for President or VP in next election cycle. Shes a warm, intelligent, caring person. My wife thinks shes the future example for women in positions of power & influence. Very easy to listen to. Shes not a shrill screaming shrew, like most of the politicians of today

 

[Citydude]

She is held in the highest regards by her state. She held the Stars and Stripes on horse back to start the days of 76 rodeo in Deadwood a few weeks ago. An amazing sight.

There were many in the stands with tears in their eyes as well as the handlers in the arena as she rode in the gate.

A true American leader.

 

[MickeyDBC]

View attachment 666283

This never makes the news.

This is actually really old data (plus just wait a couple of weeks to see what the Sturgis rally did). The CDC has a good site to keep track of state infection rates - CDC COVID Data Tracker .