Most common new tractor in North America?

[MessickFarmEqu]

I suspect that Mahindra and Kioti are taking more market share from Kubota than JD in the small tractor category.

On the market as a whole, they don't appear to be. Like I said, I am sure CNH has lost a few points.. thats probably where they went.

Everyone bases their market share figures on their own interpretation of what is sold in the market.

Thats not true at all. There is an orginization called the AEM that all the companies turn their sales figures into. The AEM then returns to you what your market share is. They always cite the AEM as their source for the figures, because as you said.. people are, and should be skeptical about claims like this (ie.. Mahindra being the largest tractor company in the world)

 

[5030]

for what its worth, Kubota shares their high level AEM data at the yearly dealer meetings. About 3-4 years ago they crossed 50% market share for under 40hp (PTO). Overall, this number has continued to grow at 2-3% per year and this year was an all time high. If anyone has lost share, its been CNH has they've changed from ISM to LS models. Deere would have probably lost some early in the year since they had some supply problems. Kubota and Deere have made up 80-85% of the market for the last 10-15 years. Followed by CNH, Mahindra, Kioti/Bobcat.. beyond that it gets fuzzy, they are all too small.

The next 3-4 years are going to get real interesting as Tier4 hits.

These are sloppy numbers, so don't quote me.

The Tier 4 emissions will break the Camel's back, so to speak, much like it did for Cat in the on road arena.

Whichever manufacturer engineers their compliant engine to be the simplest in terms of maintenance and fuel usage will win, hands down.

Deere is finding that out right now with their fuel guzzling compliant powerplants. Maybe not a good idea (from a marketing stanpoint) being the first out with new technology.

Somehow, I don't see the average suburban cut owner adding DEF to his diesel lawn tractor.... but stranger things have happened.....

Me, I'll stick with my Tier 3 engines. I like some smoke (particulates) with my power......:thumbsup:

 

[MessickFarmEqu]

The most interesting thing will be what happens to the small engine manufacturers that don't have the volume to absorb the engineering, testing, and equipment costs. I'll be the first to call it, in next few years I'd be almost certian the tractor business will have at least 2-3 less competitors.

 

[5030]

The most interesting thing will be what happens to the small engine manufacturers that don't have the volume to absorb the engineering, testing, and equipment costs. I'll be the first to call it, in next few years I'd be almost certian the tractor business will have at least 2-3 less competitors.

I'd agree with that based on Caretpillar's exit from the on road market (at least for now). Cat was unable to achieve the particulate emission standard, paid the EPA mandated fine 2 years in a row and then exited and Cat is a multi-million dollar corporation. Having said that, Cat is currently designing and executing a new engine and supposedly bulding an entire on road truck with their nameplate on it.

I could see a combining of multiple tractor manufacturers utilizing a common, emission compliant Tier 4 engine base across multiple lines, much like heavy truck manufacturers do.

At that point, it would be a matter of sheet metal/options that will set those manufacturers apart from one another, instead of power train differences.

The little guys will either have to do that or cease business. Kind of like the EPA forcing domestic foundry's out of the marketplace. There are very few grey iron foundry's left on domestic soil.

I also suspect that some third world manufacturers like Jimma for example, won't comply with Tier 4 but will not be able to offer their products in Tier 4 compliant countries and that will also set up a black market scenario much like there exists today with Grey Market Tractors.

Will all be interesting....

 

[dlmpsy]

I suspect there are many regional differences in the "brand" of tractor that is most common. That being said, John Deere is like Harley, they have brand recognition and have an image, or "cool" factor. Dealers come and go, but there is always a John Deere dealer around, or a Kubota dealer. There are far fewer mom & pop farms around now than there were twenty or so years ago. Farms are being replaced by subdivisons and malls. SCUTS and CUTS fill the need for a small tractor to take care of a few acres after work. In my area, green paint means Deere, Orange Kubota, Red Massie and Blue Ford. The wealthy farmers have Deere, everyone else has what they can afford...an old Case or whatever, but I do see more and more orange paint as the years go on....

 

[crazyal]

In the 25 miles I drive there's one JD CUT. I see lots of Kubotas and a few NH (usually the larger tractors on the farms). A few years ago a tractor/ equipment repair company started selling Kioti. I thought I would start seeing them but I really haven't. I drive by once a month and their inventory doesn't seam to move. I don't drive by any other dealers enough so maybe around here CUT/SCUT tractors just don't sell well. Some of the Kubotas I see are 80s vintage so it could be people just don't feel the need to replace what they have.

 

[MHarryE]

When I worked for an ag manufacturer, it was just like Messicks said - we reported actual sales and shipments and got reported back to us total market size and our percentage in each class. We all had a pretty good idea of what each of the other manufacturers did through the good old boy network. Cat got out of on- highway not because of difficulty meeting emissions but because of most truck manufacturers going to their own engine and packaging the emissions stuff. Cummins is the only real engine supplier left to fit on-highway engines into multiple brands. Cat's new CT660 is made by Navistar using a Navistar MaxxForce engine branded Caterpillar. Cat rarely made money on truck engines - service parts and work for their dealers. Last I saw on sales for North America it was Kubota on top in small by a wide margin and Deere on top in large by a large margin. Deere's introduction of new large product for next year is sure impressive - 5 combines and God only knows how many tractor models from 65 to 560 HP. Worldwide Mahindra makes an unbelievable number of tractors but most of them are ones unsuitable for the Western World.

 

[MessickFarmEqu]

Worldwide Mahindra makes an unbelievable number of tractors but most of them are ones unsuitable for the Western World.

I'm curious about this since you seem to have knowledge. Their stock reports say they build 80-90,000/year and export only 10-15% of that. Have you seen otherwise? They make alot of claims without backing them up, seems a bit of a black hole.

 

[300UGUY]

I'd agree with that based on Caretpillar's exit from the on road market (at least for now). Cat was unable to achieve the particulate emission standard, paid the EPA mandated fine 2 years in a row and then exited and Cat is a multi-million dollar corporation. Having said that, Cat is currently designing and executing a new engine and supposedly bulding an entire on road truck with their nameplate on it.

I could see a combining of multiple tractor manufacturers utilizing a common, emission compliant Tier 4 engine base across multiple lines, much like heavy truck manufacturers do.

At that point, it would be a matter of sheet metal/options that will set those manufacturers apart from one another, instead of power train differences.

The little guys will either have to do that or cease business. Kind of like the EPA forcing domestic foundry's out of the marketplace. There are very few grey iron foundry's left on domestic soil.

I also suspect that some third world manufacturers like Jimma for example, won't comply with Tier 4 but will not be able to offer their products in Tier 4 compliant countries and that will also set up a black market scenario much like there exists today with Grey Market Tractors.

Will all be interesting....

One reason for the foundry biz going away is competition from overseas. Cheap labor is a powerful competitor.

 

[BleedGreen]

On the market as a whole, they don't appear to be. Like I said, I am sure CNH has lost a few points.. thats probably where they went.



Thats not true at all. There is an orginization called the AEM that all the companies turn their sales figures into. The AEM then returns to you what your market share is. They always cite the AEM as their source for the figures, because as you said.. people are, and should be skeptical about claims like this (ie.. Mahindra being the largest tractor company in the world)

I absolutely agree with Neil here - and his previous post... The numbers I saw for 2009 (last full year available) had Kub just over 50% and JD right at 35% marketshare - both companies with consistent 1 to 3% gains throughout the last several years. MF was flat while NH was the big loser - my belief is that almost all of the gains made in the last few years (Kub, JD, Kioti/Bobcat/LS and Mahindra) have all come from NH's share of the pie. I unfortunately believe JD will see a drop for 2010 due to our early issues with the new 1 Series SCUTs.