Are you suggesting they mark up the geo because they know there are big incentives and they can make money and still make it seem like a good deal? I don't really understand what you were saying.
Yes - that is what I am saying.
I had several installers quote the same exact system/installation for Geo system, air source HP, and a couple also provided an option for propane furnace.
I also asked for detailed quote with equipment price and install broken out - of 5 contractor 3 would not provide this detail - the two that did showed me that the geo equipment was ~ $800 higher in price than the air source HP - other costs (air filter, HRV, duct work etc was same price)
1 of these contractors had a geo setup fee of $1800 for proper setup and adjustment etc - he could not tell me what was actually going to be done.
The 5th contractor (the one I used) gave me a discount to make either option the SAME price - his reasoning was the geo was "so simple" to install and because I was also buying 3 mini-split units on same order he could do this - his price was also similar but lower than the others for the air source option.
In this case I knew this person so could personally discern that I was not getting a corner cutting quote.
I also knew two of the other contractors and both told me that Geo systems were new and "considered" premium and their installers took longer to install because they only did a few each year. the 3 that did not break out the details had quotes for Geo option vs teh air source option that ranged 20-30% higher (hmm fed tax credit was 30%?)
I don't think they are "screwing" you, business practice is to get highest value for your service the market will bear - my only point is that without getting several quotes including air source option you might not be getting your best price point.