Using bucket as work platform.

[scott_vt]

Falling off a loader and being hurt is certainly an issue. So is falling off a ladder or down stairs. All can kill, but usually arent serious and dont reach the statistics. You just treat the situation with more respect in order to minimize the inherent dangers.
Larry

Mornin Larry,
I got a call yesterday from my buddy who is a volunteer fireman in our town along with being a member of our firehouse building committee. It seems that our general contractor who is doing the addition to our firehouse was cleaning leaves from his gutters at home. You guessed it, the ladder slipped and he fell breaking his hip and leg ! He is now in a local hospital in traction for many weeks ! What a way to spend Christmas !

Being the chairman of the building committee, Im guessing that this will seriously impact our completion date Im sure everyone in the firehouse will be understanding

Maybe he would have been better off in the bucket !

 

[Soundguy]

Its only a word, and I dont mind being called "insane".
Some ask if I surrer from my insainity? I reply I enjoy ever minute of it.

Isn't it a billy joel song that says something like... " I may be crazy.. but then maybee that's what you're looking for..."

Soundguy

 

[rback33]

Mornin Larry,
I got a call yesterday from my buddy who is a volunteer fireman in our town along with being a member of our firehouse building committee. It seems that our general contractor who is doing the addition to our firehouse was cleaning leaves from his gutters at home. You guessed it, the ladder slipped and he fell breaking his hip and leg ! He is now in a local hospital in traction for many weeks ! What a way to spend Christmas !

Being the chairman of the building committee, Im guessing that this will seriously impact our completion date Im sure everyone in the firehouse will be understanding

Maybe he would have been better off in the bucket !

I fell off a roof once cleaning leaves, but it was because I was not only careless, but plain stupid. What moron uses a garden hose to spray out gutters in FRONT of him while walking across wood shake shingles. Took me about 5 minutes to find the express route to the ground. I was about 17 at the time and it was only about ten feet to the ground, but the mulched area around the house was bordered by RR ties.. I was VERY lucky not to get hurt. The worst part was.... there was no else around... they were out planting Milo or something. Now I don't share this story to sound macho, but rather to point out that we have evaluate or methods and do our own risk assessment. As a dumb teenager I did none of that and was lucky to not do anything other than scare the crap outta myself. This brings me to my new dilemma. I am having guttering installed on my own house this week or next. My eaves around the main part of the house are a good 25 feet off the ground and the pitch is such that you cannot access them from the roof without tying off. There will be no choice but to clean them from a ladder and I am NOT looking forward to that. My perceived risk weighs VERY heavy when it comes down to cleaning those things out .. maybe I should get gutter helmets? anyone use those?

 

[scott_vt]

Mornin Rback33,
On my Ct house I have plastic screened guards that do a fair job of keeping the crap out of the gutters.

On the Vt house, no gutters, no problems !

Those Gutter Helmets, look like they work good in the TV commercials !

Good Luck !

 

[N80]

I don't like doing gutters. My house is also a good 25' in the rear. Pitch of the roof is pretty shallow, but I still get nervous. I've done it from the ladder and from up on the roof. Stinks both ways. The only thing I hate worse than an extension ladder is a pitched roof. I've never fallen and never been hurt. Several folks here say that isn't proof that it isn't dangerous....I agree. I also admit that my risk assessment in regard to gutter cleaning is probably flawed. But, it scares me. So I don't do it anymore. I pay a licensed, bonded and insured professional to do it. I'm happy as a clam as he walks away from my clean gutters with 75 of my dollars for about 30 minutes of work.

 

[firemanpat2910]

if you have a pressure washer get an extension and a gutter cleaning attatchment,and stay on the ground and do it. I have been on many wet slippery roofs, with rubber boots on, but I always have an axe in my hand and dont mind using it if I start to slide. " Just looking for hidden fire chief!"

 

[SPYDERLK]

I always try to hold onto the gutter with one hand so I can immediately arrest the ladder slipping sideways. This seems near foolproof iff the gutter isnt rickety and the ladder has good footing. Holding onto the gutter thru the ladder would be even better.
Larry

 

[Bedlam]

And one use the ladder stabilizers that attach to the ladder?

 

[patrick_g]

Maybe this could be one of the things that make you go HMMMM.

If you were say in the army in Iraq or some such dangerous place and your average daily odds of being killed on any given day were one in 10,000 you wouldn't feel too bad maybe as that doesn't sound all that bad.

What do you suppose the odds would be of surviving a one year tour under those conditions? If you were in a group of 100 men, how many would those odds predict would be killed in that year? The odds (math) predicts 4 will die, one in 25.

What if it were more dangerous? What if the odds were one in 1000 of being killed on any given day? In this instance the expectation is that 31 of the 100 will be killed.

What if the odds were only one in 100,000 but spread over a 20 year career. In this case we expect to see 7 of the 100 killed.

Odds of being killed at only one in 100,000 is not a very dangerous situation is it? Yet on average 7 of the 100 will be killed.

Lets say you expect to live to be 100 and have an average chance of being killed due to an accident that is darned low, only 1 in a milliion on any given day because you are a cautious and prudent citizen (probably a BORING BOB but safe) In this case we expect 4 of 100 "Boring Bobs" to be killed by accident sometime during their life.

So we see there are two major influences at play in getting killed by some accident (statistically speaking). How much risk you are exposed to and over what periopd of time. Some folks may do something pretty darned risky but maybe once in a lifetime or every 10-20 years so they "MAY" get away with it. Others may be at more risk and never do anything super dangerous just a bit dangerous but do it a lot.

These are pretty simple examples intended to demonstrate the effect ofaccumulating risk over time and such. I do not claim they are accurate stats from Iraq or the like. the purpose is to illustrate how continuously engaging in risky behavior severely increases the odds of getting knocked off prematurely and totally avoidably. Of course, if you are strolling down the street and a grand piano falls on you from the 34th floor, email me and well discuss the odds of it having happened (100% sine it did happen.)

If there is a different odds and time you would likek to calculate for, here is how you do it:

If the odds of dieing on any given day are 1 in 100 then the odds of surviving a day are 99 in 100 or 0.99

You then multiply 0.99 times itself the number of time intervals in question (a year is 365 days) So this is 0.99
to the power of 365.

On your scientific calculator you enter .99 then press the (x to the y) button and then key in the number of days (365) and press the "=" (equal) key and get your result. In this case, 0.0255, the odds of surviving the year, about 2 1/2 % Not too good of an outlook. We would expect 97 1/2 guys of the group of 100 to be killed.

While I have your attention (hopefully) this is the way you figure the odds of rain. If there is a 10% chance of rain on Monday, a 20% chance each day for the next three days, a 30% chance on Fri, and 0% Sat and Sunday. What are the odds that it will not rain that week? The odds that it will rain at least once that week?

If there is a 10% chance of rain Monday that is a 90% chance of no rain (0.9) for the next 3 days each day the chance of not raining is 80% (0.8), 0.7 for Fri and 100% (1) for Sat and Sunday. So you multiply the odds of no rain... (0.9) X (0.8) X (0.8) X (0.8) X (0.7) (1) X (1) and get 0.3226, 32 1/4 % chance of no rain any time in the week which is 0.67744 or 67 3/4% chance of rain sometime during the week.

It is sometimes quite difficult to assess the risk of some activity with no experience to draw on. Insurance companies and various Government agencies have collected a lot of data. Insurance companies live and die based on knowing the "ODDS" so for centuries they have kept records the distillation of which are actuary tables. This is the "ground truth" of what is going on, no guesswork no fuzzy thinking. It is the compilation and distillation of what has actually happened. No debate about how risky something will be since the data are what has already happened. Once a very great number of happenings have been recorded you can get a good idea of the likelihood of something happening whether it is a mason being injured on the job or a container ship sinking at sea.

Actuary tables are not perfect predictors of the future for any given person but for a large group of such persons the majority experience will closely parallel the actuary tables. If there is a changing methodology in how something is done the actuary tables will show this trend and the clever statistician will use reasonaable weighting techniques to reduce the effect in their calculations of the older data.

This leaves plenty of "WIGGLE" room for the person who likes to think they are special, lead a charmed life, or are inherently especially lucky and feel they will beat the odds because they are well, not like the others but are somehow special. Many of us have these feelings to varying degrees but somehow the actuary tables, recording FACT, don't seem to reveal these specially blessed risk takers as different from the rest of us.

Pat (Your mileage may vary.)

 

[SPYDERLK]

Thank you for the pertinent review of statistics. It is certainly food for thot. After doing a lot of thinking about it however, my predominating Hmmm is how a naturally and prudentlycautious person could be pushed over the edge into paranoid behavior by the 100% probability of death in a lifetime. The problem with actuarial tables and risk is that they dont account for the specific livers perception of it and influence over it. The actuarial gotchas are predominantly populated by those who risk foolishly or ambitiously. Those that dont, make up a high % of those who survive the risk. These people populate the risk and an error is made in assuming that they participate in it fully. Like, Im pretty sure statistics for dieing by lightning include people on golf courses and other high risk areas. Accidents on ladders include overweight people as well as those on them for the 1st time. Etc. Your statement - - "This leaves plenty of "WIGGLE" room for the person who likes to think they are special, lead a charmed life, or are inherently especially lucky and feel they will beat the odds because they are well, not like the others but are somehow special. Many of us have these feelings to varying degrees but somehow the actuary tables, recording FACT, don't seem to reveal these specially blessed risk takers as different from the rest of us." - - is a bit too sensational I think.
There are many reasons for risk. They all have to do with some perceived gain. The novice-particularly when young- and the foolish, altho quite different, fit into similar categories. Thrill seekers another. Those who swell the ranks of the survivors fit into a recognition and respect category. Those who dont risk have their own problem.
Its a fearful life if you let it.
Larry