waiting out the storm (virus)

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BOTTOMS UP: One way Americans are coping with the new coronavirus? Booze. U.S. sales of alcoholic beverages rose 55% in the week ending March 21, according to Nielsen. Spirits like tequila, gin and pre-mixed cocktails led the way, with sales jumping 75% compared to the same period last year. Wine sales were up 66% while beer sales rose 42%. And online sales far outpaced in-store sales. Nielsen said online alcohol sales were up 243%. Danelle Kosmal, a Nielsen vice president, suspects growth rates peaked that week as people loaded up their pantries before state stay-at-home orders went into effect. Kosmal said data for the week ending March 28 will be a better indicator of ongoing demand

US alcohol consumption surges; companies revamp operations

 

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Lots of folks watching the tube etc...If it has not happened yet...how long before the virus finds it way into TV sitcoms etc...?

'Married With Children' would be a great platform for some virus reaction humor IMO...

 

[Industrial Toys]

Had to think of all those fitness places that are always on the verge of or in bankruptcy. I can't even fathom the financial turmoil and cascading effects.

 

[ultrarunner]

Had to think of all those fitness places that are always on the verge of or in bankruptcy. I can't even fathom the financial turmoil and cascading effects.

There are public calls for 3 months of rent "Forgiveness" nationwide.

The 3 month eviction moratorium does not forgive the debt only means non payment won't get you kicked out.

So the move wants the rent forgiven because of the financial upheaval it will cause.

All well and good but I know a lot of small owners and most are retired... live in one unit of a duplex or triples and depend on the income...

Seems the Forgiveness movement would leave owners out to dry... it takes 6 to 7 months rent to pay property taxes on some properties that I manage... plus water, sewer, garbage bills don't stop and owners are prohibited from cancelling service for non-payment...

I have spoken to 5 other small time operators/managers and it is the same... majority have been approached saying not to expect April Rent.

I'm looking at it on a case by case basis... and appreciate those that have approached me ahead of time regarding their work status...

 

[Industrial Toys]

Probably, the middle class will take the worst hit. Governments throwing money at this thing with both hands. All from the middle class. Whether now or later.

 

[ultrarunner]

As much as I didn't want to I had to pack up Mom and head to banks today...

The online apps and services simply insufficient to conduct business.

Example... a shut in 88 year old widow with no children lives in assisted care... she receives a month mortgage payment from selling her home and that combined with Social Security just covers her monthly at the home.

I always take her check promptly to Wells Fargo but all the Wells Fargo branches here have signs stating closed until further notice.... just simply closed.

Spend about 30 minutes on hold and find a branch 3 towns over that is open with restricted access and not requiring appointments??? Yes... banks here are requiring appointments.

Called my Bank and was told to use one of the bill pay services... OK... lets start.

After going through the set up and verifications I find out a max of $2500 can be sent in a 72 hour period with a 10k thirty day limit... with a number to call for assistance... so I call... 29 minutes on the phone.

I was told there is no way to raise the limit and I should send smaller payments spread 4 days apart...

As mentioned she depends on this money to live... so I pack Mom up in the car because I can't leave her at home and we drive to the one branch that is open... the line goes around down one side and around people from all over needing to get banking done.

$2500 isn't realistic... also the deposit checks electronically limit is $1000.

 

[ultrarunner]

Probably, the middle class will take the worst hit. Governments throwing money at this thing with both hands. All from the middle class. Whether now or later.

I still manage a few legacy tenants with Section 8 Vouchers and these are the only tenants not worried... I mean truly not worried.

 

[MossRoad]

As much as I didn't want to I had to pack up Mom and head to banks today...

The online apps and services simply insufficient to conduct business.

Example... a shut in 88 year old widow with no children lives in assisted care... she receives a month mortgage payment from selling her home and that combined with Social Security just covers her monthly at the home.

I always take her check promptly to Wells Fargo but all the Wells Fargo branches here have signs stating closed until further notice.... just simply closed.

Spend about 30 minutes on hold and find a branch 3 towns over that is open with restricted access and not requiring appointments??? Yes... banks here are requiring appointments.

Called my Bank and was told to use one of the bill pay services... OK... lets start.

After going through the set up and verifications I find out a max of $2500 can be sent in a 72 hour period with a 10k thirty day limit... with a number to call for assistance... so I call... 29 minutes on the phone.

I was told there is no way to raise the limit and I should send smaller payments spread 4 days apart...

As mentioned she depends on this money to live... so I pack Mom up in the car because I can't leave her at home and we drive to the one branch that is open... the line goes around down one side and around people from all over needing to get banking done.

$2500 isn't realistic... also the deposit checks electronically limit is $1000.

You need a different bank. Try a credit union. That doesn't help you today, of course, but make some calls.

My guess is the new reality will show many businesses that they do not need brick and mortar buildings as much as they think. And business likes to have as few employees as possible, as people are usually one of their most costly expenses. Restaurants that make it through this virus situation doing carry-out only may decide they don't need dining rooms and waitstaff. Things like that.

 

[ultrarunner]

I would not be surprised if you are right...

Could be a lot of vacant real estate in the aftermath... especially brick and mortar retail.

East Oakland has been a wasteland for banks... some of the old BofA branches I used as a kid are storefront churches now.

The last 5 years the gentrification started... new markets, banks, coffee shops, etc... it took nearly 50 years to happen.

Contraction has far reaching affects into the future.

The food court at the half abandoned mall was one place that was always busy... they had chains like Panda but also specialty...

Me thinks they will be hard pressed to come back.

Kaiser Hospital was going ahead with a world headquarters... a full city block 900 million dollar project which Kaiser pulled the plug on yesterday.

The huge Concord Naval Weapons Station was going to be an entire planned community from scratch... in total... that was cancelled last week.

The Oak Knoll Navy Hospital Site was a victim of the last recession... ground finally broke last year... millions invested... word is it will be on hold.

Interesting note mentioned before... low income housing construction is deemed essential but market rate housing not...

 

[ultrarunner]

You need a different bank. Try a credit union. That doesn't help you today, of course, but make some calls.

My guess is the new reality will show many businesses that they do not need brick and mortar buildings as much as they think. And business likes to have as few employees as possible, as people are usually one of their most costly expenses. Restaurants that make it through this virus situation doing carry-out only may decide they don't need dining rooms and waitstaff. Things like that.

I don't bank with Wells but this is where the woman's trust attorney set up the account for worked well for years... only 5 years left.

Banking is deemed essential and was reaffirmed by the governor as such...

Want real panic... close the banks... especially when the FED is touting small business loans and such...