I would like to point out few things:
1.) In historical context 100 years in history of a country means very little. So NG abundance is only relative. One day it will be gone too. Increased supply will help to our generation but might not to our children.
2.) The time when there will not be cheap oil or NG is coming faster than most people think. I will bet that we will see gasoline at $15 - $20/gal in todays money before I kick the bucket (I am 63).
3.) Cost of electricity and energies in general will significantly increase in the future.
4.) Can we afford it? It all boils down to where we stand in productivity relative to other nations. In other words if we produce goods with high value versus production cost (supporting good wages) we will be able to afford expensive energy. Now ask yourself a question what will happen when China starts making quality goods. It will happen sooner than most people think. China pumps a lot of money in education, basic research and generally in modernisation etc. What do we do? Screw education, infrastructure, basic research or modenisation etc. We want low taxes.
I agree with Rob D that harnessing non-traditional energy is way to go but currently not all people have the space and or resources to do it. I wish the government incentives were structured such a way that it would promote lower cost of energy gathering equipment. So far the effect is opposite. The manufacturers of equipment can keep the price up because of government subsidies. In example compare complexity of average car with complexity of a wind turbine. Average car is made out of thousands parts while wind generator is made from less than hundred. Then why it cost several times more? I figured that I would need about 20 kW (estimated energy production38000 kWh/year) wind generator to run my house of grid. It cost about $70000. If I have electric car I would need estimated 50 kW or more unit (producing 96000 kWh/year). Unless I made it by myself there is no way it would be economically viable undertaking.
Ladia,
Thanks for the comments.
38000 KWh equates to over 3 million watts/month. That's a lot of power. Right now we live on less than 400 KWh/month not counting heating the house. When the Geo goes in that will pump up but the intertie will balance it out.
I went around the house and looked at everything that uses power, freezers that store grains and even the water filtration system.
Tomorrow the very fragile grid could shut down. What's our options? Because This is how we have to confront the problem. What if? What would I do if tomorrow the government failed, if oil cost 200 dollars a barrel, if the grid failed, etc. I remember when we were shocked at hearing oil cost $1.00 a liter in Europe. Guess what? Oil is over $4.00 a gallon here. So the guy from Canada saying that he wishes his oil cost what ours does is only telling us that there will be a point in the relatively near future when our oil cost as much as his!
The other side of this coin is food and we're starting to see food really go through the roof. It has to, we truck everything! We plow our fields with oil, milk our cows with machines that use electricity, etc.
If we look back I'll bet that the amount of energy each person uses on this planet has gone up logarithmically. It's human nature, now India wants to transition from mopeds to Nana's $2500 car the Tato. Oil has been so abundant that we took it for granted for so long that now we are stuck. It's the old story about not wanting to live with less but we may be forced to.
China is going solar because the pollution is making them so sick that they can't work along with the fact that they recognize that Industrialization runs on oil, so now we have this musical chairs situation where countries are scrambling for oil which brings war.
What can we do as individuals? Well I think the first thing is to get back to the victory gardens and even if we can't completely cover our electric with solar and wind we should start to move in that direction. It's the half a loaf is better than none story and if the grid fails (more like when) we'll have a head start.
Remember this: Land is power, we've been so indoctrinated that money is power but think about what you'd rather have when no food is available. A big pot of money or a big pot of stew to feed your family.
One thing about TBN, most of us have land. Look around your land and see what power you can harness. Do you have wind blown trees? A stream, lots of sun. You can install a "Stream Engine" for under $2000.00 if you're handy.
I don't know how many of you remember the old "Popular Mechanics" from the 50's. If you can find an issue on line look at the things people were building in their basements. I'm still doing that and now it's saving me money and energy.
Rob
