Tractor Shortages

[DieselBound]

When I hear our old two cylinder JD chug-puffing away I'm reminded of Click and Clack:

"Suppose you have two people who don't know what they are talking about. Do they not know twice as much as one person? Or only half as much?"

chug-puff, puff, puff.....

Follow me said the blind man to the deaf man!

 

[DieselBound]

It would be interesting to put up a poll as to whether folks think this is a short-term problem or not. Would seem that we'd have to set some sort of time constraint since there is CERTAINTY that eventually the planet will no longer exist (guessing that when the sun dies that so too will the earth): I suppose, however, that if the earth is devoid of life that there then couldn't be any shortages as there wouldn't be any demand? I'll state that I'm Long tractor shortages, in the long-term!

 

[rScotty]

Spending more time at home means buying more tractor parts this year.

I kind of expected that my local brick & mortor tractor dealers would have the best access to parts, but what I've found is the on-line dealers & part houses seem to have the best parts selection.
And they've become real easy to deal with.
rScotty

 

[4570Man]

It would be interesting to put up a poll as to whether folks think this is a short-term problem or not. Would seem that we'd have to set some sort of time constraint since there is CERTAINTY that eventually the planet will no longer exist (guessing that when the sun dies that so too will the earth): I suppose, however, that if the earth is devoid of life that there then couldn't be any shortages as there wouldn't be any demand? I'll state that I'm Long tractor shortages, in the long-term!

It’s not getting better until the country gets back to work and that’s not happening anytime soon.

 

[hornett22]

I just ran into some shortages getting parts for our old John Deere, and like a lot of us, it got me to wondering where this is going to lead.
Right now the shortages are novel, but becoming more of a problem every day. That makes now a good time to discuss things.

Some might say politics was a cause, but I think that was minor. Historically, the world has always had diverse politics and decent trade going along at the same time in spite of each other.

In my mind the big trigger for the shortages was the worldwide pandemic. It took a pandemic to show us just how fragile world's modern manufacturing and distribution system really is.

Right now I'm wondering if this really is just a problem just for a few years and then back to normal..... or will the shortages create a whole different world? And what would a different world trade look like for tractor owners?
rScotty

I'm no fan of JD but in all fairness,your difficulty in getting parts probably had more to do with the labor union strike than anything.

 

[jyoutz]

It’s not getting better until the country gets back to work and that’s not happening anytime soon.

Not just the US getting back to work. The whole world.

 

[newbury]

rScotty,
Below is the price of diesel fuel for last 5 years.
Never been higher than now.


View attachment 722104

Below is the price of gasoline over the last 5 years
Never been higher than now

View attachment 722106

Interesting charts, but they don't say where those prices were taken. Our diesel costs less than that.

My point is that it is normal for people to think that the entire rest of the country is experiencing the same things that are affecting them locally.
And it's just not so.

rScotty

Here is a chart to refute the "Never been higher than now."
statement.

Very convenient to select only the last 5 years. And also not using inflation adjusted dollars skews the graphs.

 

[IndyJay]

Yes, @Hay Dude should have used this chart to make his point, and yes it HAS been higher.
Thanks for giving credit where it is due! Looks like they are on track to beat the old record though.
I wish I could "cheer him on" but that is verboten.

 

[Jchonline]

Spending more time at home means buying more tractor parts this year.

I kind of expected that my local brick & mortor tractor dealers would have the best access to parts, but what I've found is the on-line dealers & part houses seem to have the best parts selection.
And they've become real easy to deal with.
rScotty

Are you having issues getting parts from Wickham? For me no issues this year or last. Might have just been lucky.

 

[DieselBound]

Yes, @Hay Dude should have used this chart to make his point, and yes it HAS been higher.
Thanks for giving credit where it is due! Looks like they are on track to beat the old record though.
I wish I could "cheer him on" but that is verboten.

One would have to adjust for inflation in order to truly compare apples to apples. That high of about (just above) $4 in 2008 is $5.14 in today's dollars: we have another 25% increase to go in order to match. Handy site to calc this stuff: Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value from 1913-2021

All said, however, and I've been trying to educate people about this for so many years now I've lost track: it's not COST, it's AFFORDABILITY. Cut fuel prices to $1/gal and your wages down to $3/hr and tell me whether that $1/gal fuel cost is low.

 

[DieselBound]

Spending more time at home means buying more tractor parts this year.

I kind of expected that my local brick & mortor tractor dealers would have the best access to parts, but what I've found is the on-line dealers & part houses seem to have the best parts selection.
And they've become real easy to deal with.
rScotty

The model has been slowly going toward distribution centers as retail outlets: think Costco/Sams etc. And many retail centers are moving toward being primarily on-line: grocery outlets provide grocery deliveries, though this is a tough market to make work (companies like Schwans is likely a better model- you have to schedule though, be on a route).

Close scrutiny will show that things are condensing/compressing- NOT expanding (growth in the bigger picture is retreating).

As I cannot get decent parts for my cars locally I order from the Internet: I have a couple of primary vendors that I utilize.

 

[IndyJay]

One would have to adjust for inflation in order to truly compare apples to apples. That high of about (just above) $4 in 2008 is $5.14 in today's dollars: we have another 25% increase to go in order to match. Handy site to calc this stuff: Inflation Calculator | Find US Dollar's Value from 1913-2021

All said, however, and I've been trying to educate people about this for so many years now I've lost track: it's not COST, it's AFFORDABILITY. Cut fuel prices to $1/gal and your wages down to $3/hr and tell me whether that $1/gal fuel cost is low.

Do you have a chart that shows fuel prices and inflation together? It seems that inflation was pretty much in check until fairly recently.

 

[DieselBound]

Do you have a chart that shows fuel prices and inflation together? It seems that inflation was pretty much in check until fairly recently.

If fuel was just over $4/gal back in 2008 (looking at the graph that was given above) then one need only use the adjusted value of a dollar per inflation statistics to understand what that fuel-to-dollar ratio would be in today's dollar. This valuation holds for ANYTHING priced in dollars.

Go to the link and plug in $1 for any year you like to see what the affects of inflation has been. If you're interested in "recent" then just pick your favorite year(s). If you want a graph you could likely find one: Fed publishes all sorts of fancy graphs.

 

[ultrarunner]

Just checked the inflation calculator on my home.

It sold new on 1921 for $2400

According to the inflation calculator fast forwarding 100 years the value would be $37,000 or 1445%

However the current market value is 800k +/-

Looks like Real Estate is a stellar performer...

 

[DieselBound]

Just checked the inflation calculator on my home.

It sold new on 1921 for $2400

According to the inflation calculator fast forwarding 100 years the value would be $37,000 or 1445%

However the current market value is 800k +/-

Looks like Real Estate is a stellar performer...

Yeah, but you've likely paid out the difference in property taxes! As the saying goes: Land, they ain't making any more of it. "Money," on the other hand...

 

[ultrarunner]

Yeah, but you've likely paid out the difference in property taxes! As the saying goes: Land, they ain't making any more of it. "Money," on the other hand...

Just put my $3600 annual tax payment in the mail...

 

[DieselBound]

Just put my $3600 annual tax payment in the mail...

So, $3,600 x 100 years... (yeah, mixing apples and gorillas!)

 

[Username Taken]

Just checked the inflation calculator on my home.

It sold new on 1921 for $2400

According to the inflation calculator fast forwarding 100 years the value would be $37,000 or 1445%

However the current market value is 800k +/-

Looks like Real Estate is a stellar performer...

Using Einstein's Rule of 71 (one of his few contributions to science).... [any given interest rate divided into 71 will tell you how many years it takes your principle to double..... 10% = about 7 years. 7% = about 10 years to double]

Assuming a compound interest rate of 7% (which is low) an investment in a Mutual Fund at that rate would turn that $2400 into -- Untold Millions. And millions. And millions.

Hard to compete with that.

But I agree, Real Estate really is where it's at. They ain't making anymore of it.

 

[DieselBound]

And interesting that we claim that we have to have at least %3 "economic" growth. How fast can rats run?

 

[Torvy]

(companies like Schwans is likely a better model- you have to schedule though, be on a route)

Paul Schwan is a fraternity brother of mine. Route sales worked well for them especially with rural customers.