New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[lman]

It's such an easy thing to fix that it takes less time to type this than to fix the problem. And the people that spend less also get to avoid inflation and interest rates.



rScotty

There is no way for anyone to avoid inflation, unless they don't buy food and then they die so I guess they would not see the runaway inflation in the grocery store.
Money policies created the mess we're in and it is not a simple fix to get back to the good old days of 2020.

 

[turbo36]

That’s kind of like saying “there’s icebergs in the area, but we’re on the unsinkable Titanic“.
Maybe you personally for one are ok, but if many of your neighbors are not, your world can still collapse around you.

I don’t believe you know anything about my neighborhood, it is mostly high-end professionals, lot’s doctors and medical types. From my point of view things are pretty good. if things collapse around me, I won’t really know it because the world as we know today it will have ended by that time.

If someone made choices earlier in their life that have now come back to haunt them that’s not the fault of the government or the economy. That’s the consequences of their choices. When people make investment choices, they always have to balance risk against reward, or as I like to say, pigs get fat - hogs get slaughtered. I’ve always accepted the consequences of my bad choices and learned from them. If all you do is blame other people or things for your situation, then you will never accept your own failure and learn from it.

I do have concern for other people, but I don’t let other people’s weaknesses become mine. If you spend all your time focusing on the doom and gloom, then the opportunities pass you by.

I have experienced plenty of failure in my life, but I don’t let it cloud my optimism for change and future success. You get dealt a hand of cards and need to learn how to play them.

 

[turbo36]

There is indeed a shrinking work force. Demographics tell the story that most western countries are an aging population with fewer young people to to fill in behind retirees.

Yes, you are correct. I was born in 1955, which was the middle year of the baby boom, we are all retiring, and with us go all the skill sets that are so sorely needed right now. In the past immigration played a large part in solving the labor problems in the US, right now, that is a sore subject to many people.

 

[Hay Dude]

I don’t believe you know anything about my neighborhood, it is mostly high-end professionals, lot’s doctors and medical types. From my point of view things are pretty good. if things collapse around me, I won’t really know it because the world as we know today it will have ended by that time.

If someone made choices earlier in their life that have now come back to haunt them that’s not the fault of the government or the economy. That’s the consequences of their choices. When people make investment choices, they always have to balance risk against reward, or as I like to say, pigs get fat - hogs get slaughtered. I’ve always accepted the consequences of my bad choices and learned from them. If all you do is blame other people or things for your situation, then you will never accept your own failure and learn from it.

I do have concern for other people, but I don’t let other people’s weaknesses become mine. If you spend all your time focusing on the doom and gloom, then the opportunities pass you by.

I have experienced plenty of failure in my life, but I don’t let it cloud my optimism for change and future success. You get dealt a hand of cards and need to learn how to play them.

In fact, I do know about a neighborhood like yours. My neighborhood is similar doctors, lawyers and company execs. Across the street-2 PhD’s, next door on one side-marketing executive, on the other side a Delaware Real Estate mogul. 2 doors down, a cardiac surgeon….you get the point.

Personally, I’m not in a bad situation at all, but that doesn’t mean I shouldn’t complain about the current economic crisis. I have empathy for people who are going through these tough times and have no hope. I have been there. Young people just starting out, someone struggling to get kids through college, a single parent.….

I’m doing fine now, but still sympathize for those who are struggling.

My bigger point is, when people begin to get hungry and run out of money, you won’t be able to isolate yourself, even if you are a wealthy person in a castle.

 

[Hay Dude]

Yes, you are correct. I was born in 1955, which was the middle year of the baby boom, we are all retiring, and with us go all the skill sets that are so sorely needed right now. In the past immigration played a large part in solving the labor problems in the US, right now, that is a sore subject to many people.

There’s more immigration now than ever in the history of this country.
Many of the baby boomers (I’m too young to be one) passed on their trades & skills to their kids as my dad did with me. In fact, my fathers friends did the same with their sons and now I work with them!
I DON’T see a lack of people available to do skilled labor AT ALL. Trade schools are filled with students.
I DO see a lack of people available to do unskilled and semi-skilled labor. One of the major contributors to this is the perception youth has of this type of work. They have been brainwashed into believing this type of work carries no honor and you are some kind of “loser” for not going to college or at least a trade school.

 

[turbo36]

In fact, I do know about a neighborhood like yours. My neighborhood is similar doctors, lawyers and company execs. Across the street-2 PhD’s, next door on one side-marketing executive, on the other side a Delaware Real Estate mogul. 2 doors down, a cardiac surgeon….you get the point.

Personally, I’m not in a bad situation at all, but that doesn’t mean I shouldn’t complain about the current economic crisis. I have empathy for people who are going through these tough times and have no hope. I have been there. Young people just starting out, someone struggling to get kids through college, a single parent.….

I’m doing fine now, but still sympathize for those who are struggling.

My bigger point is, when people begin to get hungry and run out of money, you won’t be able to isolate yourself, even if you are a wealthy person in a castle.

Yeah, I picked up that you are doing good. You are a hard-working person that has made good choices.

We have a social safety net in this country that will take care of most people, the problem begins when it is expected to take care of all people. I grew up in a poor family, we did have indoor plumbing ( one bath for 11 people ) but we had a coal furnace that really required a lot of attention. I remember standing in the welfare line with my mother and my siblings, waiting for our turn to get to the truck that distributed the government food, I was highly embarrassed. I swore as a child that I would never be at the mercy of another person or a system again.
i’m not a coldhearted SOB, in fact, many of my right wing buddies think I’m a little bit to the left, and they would be wrong. I just believe that there is a lot of opportunity and we need to make people aware of that opportunity and quit rewarding them for taking the easy way out.

 

[2manyrocks]

You can find examples of various experts testifying the economy was sound right up until the 2008 melt down.

I don't recall the FDIC paying off every depositor in a failed bank even if they had more in the bank than the FDIC insurance limit but they did it for SVB and Signature Bank depositors based on a finding of "systemic risk." Joint Statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC

Roughly speaking, a finding of systemic risk requires the FDIC to decide that it's worth incurring the extra cost of paying off even uninsured depositors of a failed bank if overall it avoids incurring greater losses down the road if the run on the bank mentality could spread to other banks.

Make of this what you will, but my personal opinion is, setting aside all of the public assurances that things are okay, they were scared poopless than the quick failure of these two banks was going to spread if they didn't immediately douse the fire.

 

[turbo36]

There’s more immigration now than ever in the history of this country.
Many of the baby boomers (I’m too young to be one) passed on their trades & skills to their kids as my dad did with me. In fact, my fathers friends did the same with their sons and now I work with them!
I DON’T see a lack of people available to do skilled labor AT ALL. Trade schools are filled with students.
I DO see a lack of people available to do unskilled and semi-skilled labor. One of the major contributors to this is the perception youth has of this type of work. They have been brainwashed into believing this type of work carries no honor and you are some kind of “loser” for not going to college or at least a trade school.

I don’t agree with your statement that there’s plenty of skilled people, I’m trying to get a new house built up on our northern Michigan property and all the builders here tell me it will it be at least two years before they can get a start because they can’t find skilled people. The framing, and drywall crews around here are all from southern America, they are brought up here on some kind of a program for a period of time and then have to go home. Similar to what all the large farms around me are doing right now.

The business I sold three years ago is crying for skilled CNC people, the schools are not putting out enough new people. I do agree that a lot of the young people today don’t see a future in working in a factory but maybe that’s because they saw their fathers and mothers get laid off during the 2001 and 2008 great recessions.

 

[Williy]

I heard well read this: Silicon Valley Bank employees received bonuses hours before government takeover

willy

 

[riptides]

I don’t agree with your statement that there’s plenty of skilled people, I’m trying to get a new house built up on our northern Michigan property and all the builders here tell me it will it be at least two years before they can get a start because they can’t find skilled people. The framing, and drywall crews around here are all from southern America, they are brought up here on some kind of a program for a period of time and then have to go home. Similar to what all the large farms around me are doing right now.

The business I sold three years ago is crying for skilled CNC people, the schools are not putting out enough new people. I do agree that a lot of the young people today don’t see a future in working in a factory but maybe that’s because they saw their fathers and mothers get laid off during the 2001 and 2008 great recessions.

Maybe regional. Around here...and specific to a friends business he cannot find skilled carpenters. Even offers sign up bonuses. An HVAC business moved into recently, has a sign up looking for techs, across the road from them, a builder looking for skilled carpenters, laborers and foremen. The electricians I can get a hold of, two to four weeks out. The one I landed a while back, four weeks out. Have yet to have success getting a plumber out for an estimate. I try and support small business, I feel the fleet techs and companies, IMHO, are way overpriced.

Recall a while back I ask a guy while he was here to look at a shower cartridge replacement, well over 450 dollars. It's a free part from the manufacturer, or buy it and the tool at your favorite big box store for 60 bucks.

Heck it took close to a year to line up insurance, material and contractors for a roof replacement.

Somethings are just not right...

 

[rScotty]

There is no way for anyone to avoid inflation, unless they don't buy food and then they die so I guess they would not see the runaway inflation in the grocery store.
Money policies created the mess we're in and it is not a simple fix to get back to the good old days of 2020.

It isn't that difficult. Choices don't have to be "all or nothing". Instead of buying two ice cream cones, buy one. "All or Nothing" is for simpletons. It leads to divisiveness in politics and stagnation in personal choices.
rScotty

 

[TN8Man]

In fact, I do know about a neighborhood like yours. My neighborhood is similar doctors, lawyers and company execs. Across the street-2 PhD’s, next door on one side-marketing executive, on the other side a Delaware Real Estate mogul. 2 doors down, a cardiac surgeon….you get the point.

Personally, I’m not in a bad situation at all, but that doesn’t mean I shouldn’t complain about the current economic crisis. I have empathy for people who are going through these tough times and have no hope. I have been there. Young people just starting out, someone struggling to get kids through college, a single parent.….

I’m doing fine now, but still sympathize for those who are struggling.

My bigger point is, when people begin to get hungry and run out of money, you won’t be able to isolate yourself, even if you are a wealthy person in a castle.

This is one of the reasons why I left SoCal when I retired and now live rural. The last place you want to be when the SHTF is in a big crowded metropolitan area.

 

[2manyrocks]

It isn't that difficult. Choices don't have to be "all or nothing". Instead of buying two ice cream cones, buy one. "All or Nothing" is for simpletons. It leads to divisiveness in politics and stagnation in personal choices.
rScotty

Inflation affects different people differently based on their asset holdings and buying patterns, and it is not all by choice.

If someone has all of their assets paid for and only holds gold or silver, maybe inflation doesn't hurt them as much as the person who rents a home and sees their rent continuing to go up because of inflation. Maybe their hourly pay at the grocery store doesn't increase as much as inflation goes up. Buying a new car is out of reach because they don't quite make enough and the price of the car keeps going up. For some, getting a used car means finding a used car dealer that will finance them long enough for them to file chapter 13 to get their car payment down.

Maybe they are where they are because of their choices, but the choices available to some people are much more limited than the choices available to others.

Hence, generally speaking, maintaining price stability with a view to maintaining as much full employment as possible is important to the overall well being of any economy and the people who live in it and raise their families in it.

 

[lman]

So you're the guy that started putting one lb. of cereal in a two lb. box and still selling it at the same price. I guess you can say that's not inflation, but I consider it a scam and should be objected to.

 

[riptides]

So you're the guy that started putting one lb. of cereal in a two lb. box and still selling it at the same price. I guess you can say that's not inflation, but I consider it a scam and should be objected to.

LOL. The packaging actually got smaller. On a lot of products.

Notice the size of some brands of bath soaps of late?

 

[5030]

Tractor sales will really tank when the economy tanks and that won't be long now. The hand writing is on the wall and if you cannot read it, I feel for you.

Now is not the time to go in debt for anything as you might not be able to pay for it soon.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

Maybe they are where they are because of their choices, but the choices available to some people are much more limited than the choices available to others.

This is a true statement. There are areas of my life that I have had much more limited choices then others so I can understand that. I have learned along my journey that those are the areas you have to ask and rely on God for his help.

 

[turbo36]

Maybe regional. Around here...and specific to a friends business he cannot find skilled carpenters. Even offers sign up bonuses. An HVAC business moved into recently, has a sign up looking for techs, across the road from them, a builder looking for skilled carpenters, laborers and foremen. The electricians I can get a hold of, two to four weeks out. The one I landed a while back, four weeks out. Have yet to have success getting a plumber out for an estimate. I try and support small business, I feel the fleet techs and companies, IMHO, are way overpriced.

Recall a while back I ask a guy while he was here to look at a shower cartridge replacement, well over 450 dollars. It's a free part from the manufacturer, or buy it and the tool at your favorite big box store for 60 bucks.

Heck it took close to a year to line up insurance, material and contractors for a roof replacement.

Somethings are just not right...

I’m not sure it’s just regional, every place that I have been to in the last year couple years have a lot of building going and a short supply of labor, it is amazing. Properties I was looking at in Utah have more than doubled, some quadrupled in the last three years. People are building with no regard to cost. Florida is much the same way. My brother lives in North Carolina and can’t get anybody to do any work. I have friends in Arizona and they say the same thing. If there was a place in the US that has a surplus of labor I would like to know where it is.

 

[Sid Post]

Well, for one, I’m not. I don’t see the doom and gloom that everybody is talking about for our country. This is still the greatest country in the world and the opportunities are immense!. Maybe I’m lucky but I understand the rules of the current economic system and I applied it to my benefit. Yeah, if we were to go into hyper inflation like Venezuela, maybe I would be in trouble but pretty sure the country would implode if it happened, so you know, gold and guns, right?

Current government policies and reckless government spending may not be hurting those that are well off, however, for average working-class people who are living paycheck-to-paycheck, the brink of eviction and bankruptcy are close at hand, and inflation is forcing lots of them to food banks to feed their families.

After billions of dollars to outright COVID-related fraud and, then crazy things like $350 a night hotel rooms for illegal border crossers while veterans sleep on the city streets, is it any wonder people are polarized about everything? That doesn't even touch things related to racial politics and government and teacher union-supported indoctrination and brainwashing of our children.

If you look at countries like Greece, Italy, Spain and, others in Europe, we are not as bad off but, our government policies are taking us down the same path right now. The question is not whether we are becoming like Venezuela or Argentina but, how far off are we from becoming like those of Europe with poor governance and management of their nation's economies.

 

[Sid Post]

I’m not sure it’s just regional, every place that I have been to in the last year couple years have a lot of building going and a short supply of labor, it is amazing. Properties I was looking at in Utah have more than doubled, some quadrupled in the last three years. People are building with no regard to cost. Florida is much the same way. My brother lives in North Carolina and can’t get anybody to do any work. I have friends in Arizona and they say the same thing. If there was a place in the US that has a surplus of labor I would like to know where it is.

Labor shortages are as much a symptom of government policies and proclamations of inequity as anything. Then there is the issue of people acquiring the skills to be house framers, car mechanics, plumbers or electricians, or any number of other things.

Just because you have an MBA with $250,000 of student loans doesn't mean you will become the CEO of a major corporation and make 100's of thousands of dollars each year or that you are even qualified to run fast food restaurant.

Even as an engineer, my education really only started when I got my first job as an engineer. Whether I could lay out a PCB for a communications transceiver to communicate with a satellite was meaningless outside of class and of no real value to my employer. When they needed me on the production line, they had to send me off to a school to become solder certified to meet quality control for the hardware I was working on.

Regarding the lack of available labor where I live, there are plenty of people who could be working any number of jobs but, instead, they enjoy government handouts while they play games on their computers and complain that they don't get more handouts from various government agencies.

While I fully support helping those in need and those who can't provide for themselves, indefinite support for people who are capable of working or acquiring skills to work but don't is something I strongly object to.