A windpower first

   / A windpower first #41  
Li-ION batteries create very difficult fires to extinguish. Typical gasoline car fires only take a couple of minutes to extinguish.

Electric cars fires often takes several hours and have required as much as 40,000 gallons of water (a typical engine carries 1000 gallons or less).
 
   / A windpower first #43  
Never had one catch on fire so I wouldn't know.
I didn't either, until I was swapping out the battery in an iPhone6. It's supposed to have a tape strip like a command strip that you can pull out from underneath the battery to release it. The strip broke. So I tried to carefully put pressure on the battery to get the tape to start releasing. The battery started to buckle just a bit, and a spark appeared, then smoke. Uh Oh! The pin-hole sized hole started to turn orange and more smoke. So I figured if I left it alone, the phone would burn up and I'd lose the whole thing. So I ripped it out of there and tossed it in a cup of water and took it outside. The water started bubbling. I dumped it into an icy bird bath and it melted it's way through the ice. Pretty impressive little reaction there. 🙃
 
   / A windpower first #44  
I'm at a combined cycle plant in Georgia right now commissioning replacement voltage regulators on 2 gas turbines and a steam turbine, total of maybe 500 MW. Within a rock's throw are 3 coal fired units that will be decommissioned in August. Southern Company has no replacement power for the. 2 of them are 1000 MW each and the third is cloase to that. Our federal government is very rapidly greening us into a critical situation in this country that there won't be and quick resolution for. Coal plants will be gone by the end of this decade and folks like the OP have nukes next on the list, which are also closing at a breakneck pace. Without government subsidies there might not be any wind mills in this country. The wind doesn't always blow.

The idiots making these decisions can't even do simple math. From the Wall Street Journal, America’s Power Grid Is Increasingly Unreliable which is likely behind a pay wall.
Within the footprint of the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, or MISO, which oversees a large regional grid spanning from Louisiana to Manitoba, Canada, coal- and gas-fired power plants supplying more than 13 gigawatts of power are expected to close by 2024 as a result of economic pressures, as well as efforts by some utilities to shift more quickly to renewables to address climate change. Meanwhile, only 8 gigawatts of replacement supplies are under development in the area. Unless more is done to close the gap, MISO could see a capacity shortfall, NERC said. MISO said it is aware of this potential discrepancy but declined to comment on the reasons for it.

Curt Morgan, CEO of Vistra Corp., which operates the nation’s largest fleet of competitive power plants selling wholesale electricity, said he is worried about reliability risks in New York, New England and other markets as state and federal policy makers pursue ambitious goals to quickly phase out fossil fuel-fired power plants. His concern is that the plants will retire before replacements such as wind, solar and battery storage come online, he said, given the cost and challenge of quickly building enough batteries to have meaningful supply reserves.

Putin's War is in part caused by the EU addiction to Putin's gas supply after they shut down huge numbers of continuous power producing plants that used oil, coal and nukes. The energy crisis in Europe started when the wind did not blow and the power did not flow so the demand for natural gas increased as did the price and cost. Dozens of power companies went out of business in the UK because they could not pass the cost of production to their customers because of government regulation.

One of the big surprises to me was how natural gas is CRITICAL to UK food supply. First, and what I think most TBNers know, is that natural gas is used to product fertilizer. Price increases of natural gas cause price increases of fertilizer which in turn, cause price increases for food. What was the surprise is that in the UK, and I wonder if other European countries do the same, is that they use CO2 to kill livestock. Natural gas is used to create the CO2.

There are only two plants in the UK that produce CO2 and fertilizer. Both are completely dependent on natural gas. At on point, both companies shut down because they could not afford to pay for the natural gas. The UK Government had to subsidize these companies to keep them producing fertilizer and CO2. With no CO2, the slaughter houses would have closed. There would be no meat, which some will think is a good thing, which would cause huge food supply issues and economic depression as livestock producers had to slaughter animals they could not afford to feed and take huge financial losses. The lack of income would certainly cause mass unemployment as the livestock chain laid off people AND went bankrupt as they could not pay their bills. Think of the economic hit in the rural ares if livestock producers went bankrupt, lost their land and homes.

All because the Europeans have gone from a diversity of energy sources than can produce continuous power to a single source in natural gas. Even the countries that have natural gas production, are REDUCING this production. The idiocy is astounding. Group Think is alive and well.

In Ireland this has hit the fan in a different way. They have high energy costs due to the dependence on intermittent power sources backed up by natural gas. Ireland has a deep traditional and cultural use of peat to heat homes. The Green party was brought into a coalition and it's leader made the Environmental minister. He has stirred it up by stating that ALL peat and wood burning would be banned. He keeps saying that burning peat causes 1,300 death a year, according to one study. This has caused quite a bit of push back and he is back peddling pretty fast on the issue. To ban commercial power production from peat is needed since destroying the bogs is not a good thing and a very limited energy resource but much of the peat is burned in rural areas where people cut and stack peat as did the people before them. It would be like saying you can't heat your home with wood from your own land or from a neighbors. Some/many people, have long standing "rights" to cut peat and the banning of it's use shows how out of touch the Minister, and I suspect many in the Green party, are with the rural communities. The British used the control of access to peat bogs to force Irish to enlist in the army to fight WWI. To say this was unpopular is an understatement. I doubt that history is forgotten in many areas were peat is used to stay warm but maybe not remembered by the city living Green party leadership.

Most of Irish power is generated via natural gas and Ireland has gas fields. However, one is closing down and the other running out of gas. The government has banned furhter development of offshore gas fields which is where the Irish gas fields are located. The same environment minister has said Ireland needs more gas fired power plants yet they are becoming completely dependent on gas supplies from the UK. If one understand the history of Ireland, the irony of this dependence is amazing. The same minister is against opening LPG terminals to have more options for gas supply, because some LPG is produced from fracking. Course, MOST LPG is not produced by fracking.

One has to wonder at the thought processes...

Later,
Dan
 
   / A windpower first #47  
The sun doesn't need to be always shing to have power avaiable. That's what storage is for. '
I ran solar for nearly 10 years, warantee for compnents was 25 years, with a sliding scale of decreased power each year. I forget the number, but in our time, we generally produced the same each year. Of course, some ups and downs depending on the amount of sun each year, but we NEVER ran out of power, or saw a marked decline. Each year we produced between 15MW and 15.3MW. This was (now) 12 year old technology too. Panels are producing more with the same size panel. I think ours were 285,and now they have 350+ per panel.
 
   / A windpower first #48  
One of the problems of “alternative” energy isn’t just storage (when the sun doesn’t shine or the wind doesn’t blow). It’s that the price to the consumer is disconnected from real supply-demand market forces. (Where’s all the capitalists who believe in markets?)

When I use my oven, dryer, A/C during low demand and high supply times of the day and my neighbor uses the same amount of electricity during high demand and low supply times of the day
…and the price my utility payed to the power plant varied 5:1, yet the utility charges me and my neighbor the same rate.
Guess what, I just subsidized my neighbors electric bill! That’s socialism!
Real time demand metering and a real time market pricing is the answer and would revolutionize energy (and society, innovation, etc..) like the laptop computer did.
 
   / A windpower first #49  
Of course "high demand, low supply" will change if everyone has to charge EVs at night. Supply will vary depending on sunlight and wind possibly hundreds of miles away. Sounds like a real mess trying to charge based on variable supply and variable demand. Of course this whole boondoggle is a disaster in the making.
 
   / A windpower first #50  
Of course "high demand, low supply" will change if everyone has to charge EVs at night. Supply will vary depending on sunlight and wind possibly hundreds of miles away. Sounds like a real mess trying to charge based on variable supply and variable demand. Of course this whole boondoggle is a disaster in the making.

…but not everyone has to charge at night, or everyday. Say I’m 100% charged and my Tesla only needs a 30% charge tomorrow to go to work and home, an app on my phone might tell me I can sell 70% of my Tesla’s power at 3 times the price I bought it for when I charged it on that sunny & windy day. That would be revolutionary.

One could image in a real time customer market that a phone app might also turn on my smart - dishwasher, hot tub, swimming pool for a couple hours etc.. based on market price set points.

I suppose the counter argument, right now, of me subsidizing my neighbor’s usage, is that it makes the demand side of the equation really predictable if people turn on their power without any concern to the supply.
Right now, grid managers can easily predict demand based on the temperature (degree day) and what day of the week it is can get you accurate predictions down to the hour.
Conversely, a real time consumer market based system would introduce some instability to pricing and supply/demand, but it would also introduce the consumer to the reality of the supply side as the grid gets more unstable with solar/wind generation sources.
But most importantly, and conservatives should love this: YOU SHOULDN’T HAVE TO SUBSIDIZE YOUR NEIGHBORS ELECTRIC BILL!
 
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   / A windpower first #51  
…but not everyone has to charge at night, or everyday. Say I’m 100% charged and my Tesla only needs a 30% charge tomorrow to go to work and home, an app on my phone might tell me I can sell 70% of my Tesla’s power at 3 times the price I bought it for when I charged it on that sunny & windy day. That would be revolutionary.
Actually that is a great idea with just one fatal, but I think temporary, flaw. Current tech is already limited by the number of charge/discharge cycles that the battery can handle. But… using millions of EVs in a city as a giant sponge, soaking up excess power and discharging it later is a great idea. There are already power companies using warehouses full of used EV batteries for that very purpose. They use batteries that still hold charge, but not enough to meet the range needs of the vehicles they were in before being replaced. It’s a massive growth industry that I have some familiarity with.
 
   / A windpower first #52  
…but not everyone has to charge at night, or everyday. Say I’m 100% charged and my Tesla only needs a 30% charge tomorrow to go to work and home, an app on my phone might tell me I can sell 70% of my Tesla’s power at 3 times the price I bought it for when I charged it on that sunny & windy day. That would be revolutionary.

One could image in a real time customer market that a phone app might also turn on my smart - dishwasher, hot tub, swimming pool for a couple hours etc.. based on market price set points.

I suppose the counter argument, right now, of me subsidizing my neighbor’s usage, is that it makes the demand side of the equation really predictable if people turn on their power without any concern to the supply.
Right now, grid managers can easily predict demand based on the temperature (degree day) and what day of the week it is can get you accurate predictions down to the hour.
Conversely, a real time consumer market based system would introduce some instability to pricing and supply/demand, but it would also introduce the consumer to the reality of the supply side as the grid gets more unstable with solar/wind generation sources.
But most importantly, and conservatives should love this: YOU SHOULDN’T HAVE TO SUBSIDIZE YOUR NEIGHBORS ELECTRIC BILL!

You are going to sell off your EV charge. What happens if you have a late night emergency, or even the next day you have to drive to the hospital. Or there is an emergency evacuation and you and 500 others are blocking the egress routes with your dead batteries? Or there is a storm and power lines are down for 10-20-40 hours?
 
   / A windpower first #53  
You are going to sell off your EV charge. What happens if you have a late night emergency, or even the next day you have to drive to the hospital. Or there is an emergency evacuation and you and 500 others are blocking the egress routes with your dead batteries? Or there is a storm and power lines are down for 10-20-40 hours?

Risk/reward calculations and risk tolerance are a central part of capitalism. You can’t triple your investment if you don’t risk something.
That’s a similar risk you take when your wife, or kid, or yourself leaves the gas tank on near empty. You have to fill it back up. It’s not always convenient and could leave you stranded in an emergency.
 
   / A windpower first #54  
Actually it doesn't even approach being the same thing for a lot of us. It takes 10 minutes to put gasoline in a vehicle. I have spare gas all the time. I just prefer not not get mixed up in that boondoggle debacle.
 
   / A windpower first #55  
Actually it doesn't even approach being the same thing for a lot of us. It takes 10 minutes to put gasoline in a vehicle. I have spare gas all the time. I just prefer not not get mixed up in that boondoggle debacle.
By the same token, EVs make perfect sense for the vast majority of people in the world, nearly all of which live in or near large cities. EVs will be the dominant form of private transportation in the US in 10 to 20 years.
 
   / A windpower first #56  
1651149557510.png

Really windy around here today
Wind making 9.6% of New England power.
 
   / A windpower first #57  
Notice landfills can be considered good guys too 😉
 
   / A windpower first #58  
European power sources:

I was just thinking, hard, I know, that there was a time when gasoline filling stations were hard to find. Horse stables would have been more common. This has evolved to lots of gasoline filling stations with limited availability of public charging stations. Seems there is a pattern occurring when power sources change. The old gives way to the new.

Used to be home heating had regular truck supply of coal delivery. Doubt if you can even buy heating coal these days. There is trucked fuel oil & propane delivery as well as pipeline delivered natural gas or power line distributed electricity. Change is inevitable.
 
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   / A windpower first #59  
European power sources:

I was just thinking, hard, I know, that there was a time when gasoline filling stations were hard to find. Horse stables would have been more common. This has evolved to lots of gasoline filling stations with limited availability of public charging stations. Seems there is a pattern occurring when power sources change. The old gives way to the new.

Used to be home heating had regular truck supply of coal delivery. Doubt if you can even buy heating coal these days. There is trucked fuel oil & propane delivery as well as pipeline delivered natural gas or power line distributed electricity. Change is inevitable.

Back 75 years ago, Did the government force people heating homes with coal into changing to HH oil, or was it an improvement brought about by free markets? Did the government subsidize this change?

Is todays change from HH oil and NG to EV’s and wind/solar power from improvements in free markets, or government subsidies, mandates and pressures to force changes on us?

Biden threatening oil executives with imprisonment? Government making oil exploration more difficult? Fuel pipeline permits being denied?

Are those free market pressures to change? I dont think so.
 
   / A windpower first #60  
Back 75 years ago, Did the government force people heating homes with coal into changing to HH oil, or was it an improvement brought about by free markets? Did the government subsidize this change?

Is todays change from HH oil and NG to EV’s and wind/solar power from improvements in free markets, or government subsidies, mandates and pressures to force changes on us?

Biden threatening oil executives with imprisonment? Government making oil exploration more difficult? Fuel pipeline permits being denied?

Are those free market pressures to change? I dont think so.
The free market system did not build the US highway system and it never would have. The ferry boat operators at US river crossings were appalled that the government would build bridges over the rivers using taxpayer money. Exxon, Chevron, Marathon, etc. are all investing heavily in alternative energy research.
 

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