Depression

[Bird]

[From my earliest recollection... a Depression is when money is tight or scarce...

The definitions I heard were that a recession was when you lose your job, and a depression was when I lose my job.

 

[RichZ]

A depression is not going to effect everyone at the same time. It has to start someplace, and I think this one is starting with the small family farms, which in my opinion, is the backbone of our economy. Family farms are going under at a rate faster than ever before, and that rate is speeding up. From the family farms, the next to be hurt are businesses that supply them, and consumers who buy their products, and it obviously goes on from there. Most of the country depends on products from family farms to some extent, and as more and more go under, things will get worse. I'm not a doom sayer, I'm just stating a fact. I take no pleasure in stating this, and I wish it wasn't true, but ask anyone who farms for a living, and you'll hear the same thing.

In my case, I still have an off-farm job that gives me enough of an income to survive. I won't lose my farm, but I am downsizing as quickly as I can, and I went from having a very comfortable income to having to cut my expenses to the bone in order to survive. But most family farmers don't have an off-farm income, and they will lose their farms, and things are going to be very bad for them.

 

[ihookem]

Original question- Are we going into a depression? No not at all! at least not nationally. Upstate New York on a small farm may be hurting. Small farms in S.E Wisconsin- doing fairly well. Here is why some are hurting and some failing. A small scale dairy farmer can't compete with a 1,000 cow milk farm. He has to find something that can't be mass produced. Goat milk is a start for cheese. Maybe you should try selling the milk more locally as milk? It depends on the locals whether it will work or not. There is a whole new customer that will pay a lot more for a better/ fresher food, if there is an upscale population close by it might work. It might work but New York is hurting bad. ( I have relatives in Utica, my mom grew up there) You have to sell things money can't buy in a megga grocery mart. Free range or pastured chickens that taste five times better than store bought. Farm fresh eggs, that taste fresher, turkeys, grass fed beef, maybe a pig or two, (but maybe not pigs) It sounds like you are sticking with one idea, a cheese maker 75 mi. away and may have to be more flexible. I see people all the time that can't "make it" . because they refuse to be flexible. As a self employed carpenter I see guys with very little work because they only want to finish or frame or just hang cabinets. I made it for four years because I do almost everything, am honest, polite, reasonable rates and dress so I don't offend customers in their own house. Many carpenters don't know enough to turn off satanic music when there is a cross on the homeowners front door, they don't do well. Anyway you are lucky, you have other income to get you by untill you can find out what will work and what won't. I believe a wise man can make it through anything and have prayed to God for wisdom a thousand times about such matters, I guess he gave me just enough to do well. This is more a pm than a post. Anyway, as crazy as this may sound I have decided times in general are very good. The media is very good at making things look much worse than they are especially when a republican is in the white house. If Obama gets in you will hear a much different story a few weeks after Obama livws there.I know I am going to get a lot of insults for this but I wish gas would go higher like 5-6 dollars a gallon. I know you've never heard anything like this but I've been saying it for a few years. It's The only thing that is going to get us off this dependence for foreign oil. It will bring new technology for electric cars and that's the future in all cases except tractors, semis and big trucks. Almost everyone could get by with an electric car. In reality an electric car should be cheap to make and cheaper to run (100 mi. on 3 dollars of electricity)with little maintenance. This will make fuel much cheaper for the guys like farmers, truck drivers,and guys who really need a diesel or big truck. World futures will go down and few would use oil stocks as a money bank against inflation, foreign countries will have much less leverage against us , we could drill most of the oil we use, and could easily put OPEC off their high horse. Air in the cities would be cleaner and quieter too. We need oil to stay high enough long enough for people to realize gas is never going to be cheap again, and electric cars are not only for wimps. By the way, GM can turn out an electric car in six months if they want to. We will forget about gas cars like we forgot about the horse and buggy but we have to have a reason, and that seems to only come with a national crisis cause we don't think long term like when Toyota came out with the Prius the year gas was .89 a gallon. (We were making SUV's) If gas goes back to 3 bucks we (short sighted Americans)will buy gas hogs. If it goes to 5 or 6 bucks for a long time we will get used to electric cars long enough to prefer them cause car makers will have made enough of them to make them cheaper and better. It's going to hurt but we will be better off in the long run. I also know companies can't find good young kids to work in factories so they go over seas.

 

[N80]

We/You ARE the government.

That's what we were taught in elementary school. I personally feel that in the last 75 years Washington is more of an oligarchy than a representative democracy. I'd love to see a poll of how many Americans feel that they have any impact on federal government policy. I'd love even more to hear how those who answered 'yes' think that they do so.

 

[RichZ]

You are correct in the fact that a small family farm can now longer survive with one product. Goat milk is our main product, but we also raise fiber sheep, and sell the wool and lambs, we also sell free range chicken eggs. We also sell our goat kids, and as we are known to have good registered stock, they sell for good prices. As I said, we will survive. But many famrers in my area, and throughout the country are not going to survie. Our farm is very small, and we always intended to sell various products. But many larger and more established farms don't have the resources to make changes like that.

In our case, we're switching the use of our goat milk. My wife has started making goat milk soap, and we'll try other products as well. But, if I didn't have an off-farm income as well as our farm income, we'd never be able to make these changes.

Believe me, we're entering a depression.

 

[LMTC]

That's what we were taught in elementary school. I personally feel that in the last 75 years Washington is more of an oligarchy than a representative democracy. I'd love to see a poll of how many Americans feel that they have any impact on federal government policy. I'd love even more to hear how those who answered 'yes' think that they do so.

George, we still do/could have impact, but the problem (IMO) is what de Tocqueville described. Too many people like the public trough, too few have any understanding of critical/analytical thinking, and way way too many have little to no real understanding of free market economics. Folks want benefits without responsibilities or sacrifice, and for lo these many decades there is no lack of charlatans to promise that.

 

[alchemysa]

If gas goes back to 3 bucks we (short sighted Americans)will buy gas hogs. .

Sure, but thats because the car makers don't give you much choice. Its amazing how fast most of the car makers revert to type as soon as gas prices drop. They roll out the big gas guzzlers like there will never be a fuel shortage again. They have an outdated manufacturing and sales structure that necessitates them to produce the biggest, most expensive, highest maintenance models possible. They simply don't want to make something that can be sold for $10,000 that requires minimal ongoing maintenance. Toyota, with the Prius, are leading the field but even they are just tentatively dabbling in this. I'd like to know what dealerships really think about the possibility of mass sales of all-electric vehicles. I bet they are very worried about the idea.

I also think a lot of decisions about car designs are based on corporate and government fleet sales. In other words they are designing cars for people who never put their hand in their own pocket to pay for fuel.

 

[300UGUY]

I think most decisions are made by corporate types who drive company cars, with company gas, and get a new car every few weeks. And these cars are maintained by "executive garages" who prep, wash, and fuel them daily. In other words, these bozos never even put the gas in themselves, much less pay for anything. I work for a car company, I have seen this first hand. These guys live in a bubble.

 

[300UGUY]

Original question- Are we going into a depression? No not at all! at least not nationally. Upstate New York on a small farm may be hurting. Small farms in S.E Wisconsin- doing fairly well. Here is why some are hurting and some failing. A small scale dairy farmer can't compete with a 1,000 cow milk farm. He has to find something that can't be mass produced. Goat milk is a start for cheese. Maybe you should try selling the milk more locally as milk? It depends on the locals whether it will work or not. There is a whole new customer that will pay a lot more for a better/ fresher food, if there is an upscale population close by it might work. It might work but New York is hurting bad. ( I have relatives in Utica, my mom grew up there) You have to sell things money can't buy in a megga grocery mart. Free range or pastured chickens that taste five times better than store bought. Farm fresh eggs, that taste fresher, turkeys, grass fed beef, maybe a pig or two, (but maybe not pigs) It sounds like you are sticking with one idea, a cheese maker 75 mi. away and may have to be more flexible. I see people all the time that can't "make it" . because they refuse to be flexible. As a self employed carpenter I see guys with very little work because they only want to finish or frame or just hang cabinets. I made it for four years because I do almost everything, am honest, polite, reasonable rates and dress so I don't offend customers in their own house. Many carpenters don't know enough to turn off satanic music when there is a cross on the homeowners front door, they don't do well. Anyway you are lucky, you have other income to get you by untill you can find out what will work and what won't. I believe a wise man can make it through anything and have prayed to God for wisdom a thousand times about such matters, I guess he gave me just enough to do well. This is more a pm than a post. Anyway, as crazy as this may sound I have decided times in general are very good. The media is very good at making things look much worse than they are especially when a republican is in the white house. If Obama gets in you will hear a much different story a few weeks after Obama livws there.I know I am going to get a lot of insults for this but I wish gas would go higher like 5-6 dollars a gallon. I know you've never heard anything like this but I've been saying it for a few years. It's The only thing that is going to get us off this dependence for foreign oil. It will bring new technology for electric cars and that's the future in all cases except tractors, semis and big trucks. Almost everyone could get by with an electric car. In reality an electric car should be cheap to make and cheaper to run (100 mi. on 3 dollars of electricity)with little maintenance. This will make fuel much cheaper for the guys like farmers, truck drivers,and guys who really need a diesel or big truck. World futures will go down and few would use oil stocks as a money bank against inflation, foreign countries will have much less leverage against us , we could drill most of the oil we use, and could easily put OPEC off their high horse. Air in the cities would be cleaner and quieter too. We need oil to stay high enough long enough for people to realize gas is never going to be cheap again, and electric cars are not only for wimps. By the way, GM can turn out an electric car in six months if they want to. We will forget about gas cars like we forgot about the horse and buggy but we have to have a reason, and that seems to only come with a national crisis cause we don't think long term like when Toyota came out with the Prius the year gas was .89 a gallon. (We were making SUV's) If gas goes back to 3 bucks we (short sighted Americans)will buy gas hogs. If it goes to 5 or 6 bucks for a long time we will get used to electric cars long enough to prefer them cause car makers will have made enough of them to make them cheaper and better. It's going to hurt but we will be better off in the long run. I also know companies can't find good young kids to work in factories so they go over seas.

I like your approach to business. Sounds like you know what it takes to compete. But your competition is local. The guys in manufacturing are competing with guys in China, Brazil, Mexico, Vietnam, etc. These guys will happily work for $2, $1 or less per hour. I don't care if you are union, non union, or a independent small business, you have a very hard time competing with 3rd world labor. I have several friends who owned or were employed in small, family owned manufacturing shops. All are out of business. I live in Michigan. Last year Electrolux Corporation, a Swedish corp, shut down the largest compressor plant in NA. ( Refrigeration stuff ). The state offered to give them a new plant. They refused, the labor savings of moving to mexico would pay for a new plant in one year. These people in Michigan only made $12 to $15 per hour. I also think that there are a lot of very bright young people out there, but they have no future in manufacturing.

 

[ihookem]

300 guy, you are looking in the worst economy in the nation, yup, Michigan. In Wisconsin there are manufacturing companies hiring. Taxes are high, everyhting is igh in Wisconsin but you can find a manufacturing job in the Milw. area. I know moving is hard but the west side of the pond isn't all that bad. You have to work though and the slackers don't last when it slows down. Later, ihookem.

 

[jcurtisB78]

Are we going into a depression? Well technically we're not even in a recession yet (as defined by two consecutive quarters of negative growth), although the last two quarters have been a bit anemic (around 1% but still positive).

Anyway, as crazy as this may sound I have decided times in general are very good. The media is very good at making things look much worse than they are especially when a republican is in the white house. If Obama gets in you will hear a much different story a few weeks after Obama livws there.

Excellent points, there is a lot of research that supports this view.

I know I am going to get a lot of insults for this but I wish gas would go higher like 5-6 dollars a gallon.

Not from me, but I do think that this sudden surge in prices is tough on lower income people. I believe we are in a transitional period where technology (electric cars, fuel cells, solar, and wind) will take time to catch up.

Sure, but thats because the car makers don't give you much choice. Its amazing how fast most of the car makers revert to type as soon as gas prices drop. They roll out the big gas guzzlers like there will never be a fuel shortage again.

Car makers produce cars and trucks that people will buy. All manufacturers have produced small fuel-efficient cars for years, but when some urban cowboy goes to the Ford dealer and walks past a Focus to get to an F150 or Explorer, Ford's going to build more of those. I have friends that seem to have been in a "see who can get the biggest SUV" contest (when a small car would have met their needs just fine) then complain about gas prices .

 

[alchemysa]

Car makers produce cars and trucks that people will buy. All manufacturers have produced small fuel-efficient cars for years, but when some urban cowboy goes to the Ford dealer and walks past a Focus to get to an F150 or Explorer, Ford's going to build more of those. I have friends that seem to have been in a "see who can get the biggest SUV" contest (when a small car would have met their needs just fine) then complain about gas prices .

Buyers are offered cars that are at least 5 years out of date before they even hit the showroom floor. The customer has little choice in the matter. If you need a family car and your options are a gas guzzling SUV or an economical, but limited use compact, what can you do? My point is that when it really comes down to it buyers are not really offered much choice at all. And they are rarely offered what they REALLY want.

As someone here said, GM could put an electric car on the market in six months if they wanted too, but they are trapped in a cycle of cost recovery and commitments based on an outdated and protected 'heavy industries' manufacturing and sales plan.

In years to come, when india and china really get serious about producing an all-electric car thats made mostly out of plastic , choosing one will be as simple as buying a vacuum cleaner from your local electrical store. Sure there will still be sales of big heavy SUV's but your average home-shop-school runabout will be cheap and disposable.

 

[alchemysa]

A
Not from me, but I do think that this sudden surge in prices is tough on lower income people. I believe we are in a transitional period where technology (electric cars, fuel cells, solar, and wind) will take time to catch up. .

The big car makers don't want to produce all electric cars because they don't want to start a 'race to the bottom' of the profit graph. Electric cars could be relatively cheap and simple to build. No gearbox, minimal transmission, no exhaust, simple brakes, a motor with 1 moving part and a very simple management system. If you limit it to 60 mph and restrict it to urban use you can probably dispose of a lot of other expensive stuff too (like 20 airbags). It's basically a big glorified golf cart. That type of manufacturing capacity exists at dozens of companies who are not currently in the car game. But if they get a foot in the door, it'll start a price war that can only hurt the big boys. So guess what?. GM, Ford etc, are keeping the door shut and the public ignorant.

But its only a matter of time.

 

[MikePA]

So guess what?. GM, Ford etc, are keeping the door shut and the public ignorant.

Another variation of the 'great conspiracy' theory. Right up there with the automakers suppressed the 100 mpg carburetor. It can't be as simple as there has to be a market for a product before someone will drop millions/billions into manufacturing them. Nah. Much easier to blame the 'black helicopters'.

And the up to date figure from concept to manufacturer is more like 18 - 24 months, not 5 years.

 

[alchemysa]

Another variation of the 'great conspiracy' theory. Right up there with the automakers suppressed the 100 mpg carburetor. It can't be as simple as there has to be a market for a product before someone will drop millions/billions into manufacturing them. Nah. Much easier to blame the 'black helicopters'.

And the up to date figure from concept to manufacturer is more like 18 - 24 months, not 5 years.

Its not a theory. Its just basic business common sense that is on show every day. You don't put something onto the market that will cut your own profits to shreds. And we are not talking about a mythical carby. Electric car technology exists now. Prius sales have exceeded 1 million vehicles! But have you heard Ford and GM rushing to join the party. No way.

18-24 months might give you a facelift but it'll be based on the same old platform. The history of car design has basically just been an effort to perfect something that was conceived a hundred years ago. Theres been no great technological advances. My current vehicle is barely more fuel efficient than my first 6 cylinder car 35 years ago.

Prius sales top One Million &raquo Australian Car Advice | News Blog

 

[MikePA]

Its not a theory. Its just basic business common sense that is on show every day. You don't put something onto the market that will cut your own profits to shreds.

I fundamentally disagree with this. Companies put things on the market to make a profit. To make a profit, there has to be a market. There's a market, a big market, for these cars now. There wan't a big market until just recently.

By the way, a few weeks ago, GM announced they will product the Volt, so you can add them to the list of people 'rushing to the party'.

 

[alchemysa]

I fundamentally disagree with this. Companies put things on the market to make a profit. To make a profit, there has to be a market. There's a market, a big market, for these cars now. There wan't a big market until just recently.
By the way, a few weeks ago, GM announced they will product the Volt, so you can add them to the list of people 'rushing to the party'.

Don't hold your breath. The Chevy Volt website says its 'planned' for release at the end of 2010. They're really pulling out all the stops aren't they.

You are exactly right that companies put things on the market to make a profit. Thats the problem with all-electric cars. Ultimately thay may be a pretty low profit unit. Cheap to build. Cheap to maintain. Minimal spare parts. Minimal maintenace required. The old GM EV1 might not have been perfect but it was good enough to give GM a glimpse of the future and it scared the **** out of them.

"CHRIS PAINE: I had driven that EV-1 for five years and I had just a terrific experience. I got an electric car as kind of a notion I tried out. Within about two months, it was the only car I was driving. My gas car was sort of in the background for emergency days when I needed to go on long trips. And in that five years I don't think I needed service once. And so, all you do is plug it in at night and every day you go 60-miles. If you really need to go farther, you have your gas car."

Remember this is a car that was released over 10 years ago!

 

[Wayne County Hose]

As it stands right now, electric cars will not be feasable for about 20 years. Our aging power grid can barely keep up to the demand now. Remember the blackout on the east coast a few years ago? The rolling blackouts in California? Now try everybody hooking up a battery charger or two between 5 and 7 o'clock an night, along with running their air conditioners in the summer. We will need more power plants, I can hear the liberals belly aching already. And nobody wants a power plant in their backyard. They are trying to put a new power line from upstate NY to the NYC area and the fight is unreal. Nobody wants it coming anywhere near them. They are making up anything to stop or divert it. I think they found a distant cousin to the spotted owl nearby that was thought extinct for the last 1.687 million years, give or take a month. So, how many years for more power plants and upgrade the power grid? 20 years may be figuring on the early side.

 

[dmccarty]

The problem with electric cars is where and how is the power going to be generated? In the US, there is not a surplus of power generation. In fact there are some who say we are about to have shortages.

Add millions of electric cars to the roads and there simply won't be enough power generation plants.

Sorry, you can't blame the big three for not selling small cars. They do. They are pretty much loss leaders. Because of CAFE standards they have to sell small cars even though most of the profits are in large trucks and SUVs. People wanted large trucks and SUVs. They were willing to pay big dollars to get those large vehicles. The big three supplied the demand and made as much money as they could and it still is not enough to keep them afloat. Ford had a chance to return to profitabilty but the higher fuel prices and the drop in demand for their highest profit products is going to really hurt them.

Later,
Dan
On Edit:Wayne County Hose and I were a typeing the same thoughts at the same time....

 

[MossRoad]

Mossroad,

I'm sorry but that's a pretty narrow view of 'need' (and not entirely accurate either, since most of us metabolize oxygen). But, if that's all there is to it, then you guys were living like kings.

Yes, we felt like we were living like kings on occasion, especially if we could afford a meal with meat once in a while. Your sarcasim towards my upgringing is not appreciated, but understandable.

In the end, though, I'm in agreement about bad financial decisions, unrealistic standards of living, and how soft we've gotten. But I'm still not going to suggest that everyone in this country could or should move their home to get closer to a job that may or may not be there next week just so they can save gas. That would be naive and beyond realistic. And highly unlikely to help.

According to the 2006 US census, click here the average person in your home state lived within 23 minutes of their job. That means they either found new work within 23 minutes of their home when they changed jobs or they moved to be within 23 minutes of their next job.

For a lot of people 'home' means a lot more than just where they sleep between the hours of work.

You ever ask underprivileged people where they live? They reply "we stay at..." not "we live at...". For a lot of people, home means where they are currently staying. That's where they sleep.