Driverless Cars

[JasperFrank]

the exit to Issaquah Washington off of I90 backs up 3 miles on a bad day. You tell me how an autonomous car is going to deal with that? Its going to get in line also. So now the back up is 8 miles, and well beyond any sort of off ramp extra area of road. interfering with I5, which will shut down the whole freaken system.

 

[cqaigy2]

Couple of things on this post;
1) I feel safer at the gun range than just about anywhere else - everyone but EVERYONE knows the potential consequences of a mistake, so mistakes that COUNT are very very rare and people get CALLED OUT for ANY safety issue whether it is actually dangerous or not.
{BTW, that doesn't make me complacent about safety at the gun range.}

2) Driving to/from the gun range makes me a safer driver.
I have NO desire to be stopped for even the most trivial infraction.

3) Folk with enough DUIs sometimes only get a provisional license when they get it back.
Conditional on a breathalyzer ignition interlock.
I can see that coming as REQUIRED standard equipment ...one day.
It could do a LOT more for SAFETY than the blind spot warning bleeper.

4) Around here if you really want to tick people off drive *AT* the speed limit, they'll honk and flash until they can get around you and cut in hard.
A good place is just before a known speed trap, which happens to be where the double line just went away.

I agree to some of this, but have you look up at the ceiling of your gun range. :laughing:

 

[Reg]

I agree to some of this, but have you look up at the ceiling of your gun range. :laughing:

Yeah, those guys LEFT when the alcohol ban CAME, the damage is limited to the roof of the pistol range, nothing in the club house.
{pretty sure we haven't had such an incident since}
We don't miss them, but they missed us.

I blame TV and their depiction of how "Agents" (from government agencies with three letter acronyms) carry their weapons just before engagement.
We have a ban on "COWBOY STYLE" shooting from the hip too.

One of the trap houses has a scar that approximates a circle the size of a large human's torso - an eerie reminder that the E.R. would be able to do little/nothing for anyone hit by a 12Ga at ~50 ft.

Anyway, I still feel safer THERE for 1/2 or a whole day than I feel on the ROADS getting to/from there/home 15 miles each way, about an hour of risk exposure.

 

[Reg]

the exit to Issaquah Washington off of I90 backs up 3 miles on a bad day. You tell me how an autonomous car is going to deal with that? Its going to get in line also. So now the back up is 8 miles, and well beyond any sort of off ramp extra area of road. interfering with I5, which will shut down the whole freaken system.

Well, no.
Typically such back ups are because human controlled vehicles can't travel close to each other SAFELY, the reaction times are too long. Denser packing will lead to less back up, better negotiation of priority at the intersection that is at the end of that ramp will also decrease congestion.
Unless... unless that opportunity is spent to allow MORE cars on the road.

Yep, that denser traffic will be perceived as the "fault" of autonomous vehicles, but that is like blaming obesity on the availability of larger clothe sizes.

 

[Raspy]

I wonder how an autonomous car will deal with passing a slower vehicle on a two lane highway? How much below the speed limit will the self-driver allow before passing someone? And when it does, how does it look way down the road for traffic that is approaching? If it can't exceed the speed limit, passing times will be greatly increased. Before passing, will the auto car look back for other approaching passers? Seems like a very complicated addition to the driverless system programming. There will be objects moving in the same direction, stationary objects (like trees and stopped cars) and approaching objects that are far away and coming fast. Will the passing self drivers be allowed to speed temporarily? Or flow with traffic at speeds above the posted limit? This problem seems harder to fix than driving on a multi-lane freeway and the US has millions of miles of two lane roads.

We may see a long string of cars that are all speed governed by the slowest of the slow, where normally they would get passed.

 

[prof fate]

Yeah, those guys LEFT when the alcohol ban CAME, the damage is limited to the roof of the pistol range, nothing in the club house.
{pretty sure we haven't had such an incident since}
We don't miss them, but they missed us.

I blame TV and their depiction of how "Agents" (from government agencies with three letter acronyms) carry their weapons just before engagement.
We have a ban on "COWBOY STYLE" shooting from the hip too.

One of the trap houses has a scar that approximates a circle the size of a large human's torso - an eerie reminder that the E.R. would be able to do little/nothing for anyone hit by a 12Ga at ~50 ft.

Anyway, I still feel safer THERE for 1/2 or a whole day than I feel on the ROADS getting to/from there/home 15 miles each way, about an hour of risk exposure.

we have idiots our range - shooting 308 rifles off a bench at pistol steel 20 yards away...it pokes holes in it BTW.
Shooting up the sump pump in the indoor range - 10 holes in it...why?
Somebody brought a tv (old style) to the range and shot it up and left it...
No tracers...people shoot them.
No tannerite before 10 am or after 6 pm...people do it.

I drive a school bus..stop for flashing red lights, easy peasy right? Hells no, and not just because they're on their phone (we do see that often). And I have folks pull out in front of me daily - who wants to be behing a school bus, right? ME FIRST, safety second.

Why?
Probably same reason people drive 70 in a 55...it's all about ME!

And self driving cars obeying the rules will become issues regarding these idiot drivers. Why you think folks will fall in line I dont' know..they don't do it now, so why will they change?

"I gotta get to where i"m going!" and they'll drive 70, 75 in a 55. When too more autonomous vehicles are doing 55 that won't cause more road rage...yeah, right.

And not all self driving cars look like a tesla or ford fusion...It's gonna be obvious when you see this that you can 'take control' of the road and it won't rage at you, but will give way.

 

[3930dave]

I wonder how an autonomous car will deal with passing a slower vehicle on a two lane highway? How much below the speed limit will the self-driver allow before passing someone? And when it does, how does it look way down the road for traffic that is approaching? If it can't exceed the speed limit, passing times will be greatly increased. Before passing, will the auto car look back for other approaching passers? Seems like a very complicated addition to the driverless system programming. There will be objects moving in the same direction, stationary objects (like trees and stopped cars) and approaching objects that are far away and coming fast. Will the passing self drivers be allowed to speed temporarily? Or flow with traffic at speeds above the posted limit? This problem seems harder to fix than driving on a multi-lane freeway and the US has millions of miles of two lane roads.

We may see a long string of cars that are all speed governed by the slowest of the slow, where normally they would get passed.

Good points.

Heavy trucks are presently speed governed in Ontario, creating some of the issues you ID'd. Even on multi-lane highways.

Rgds, D.

 

[3930dave]

I've driven coast to coast and border to border (and back) and all over Europe, whatever sense you get from higher speed and lane swapping/weaving they make very little difference to actual journey times. It isn't the TOP speed that determines journey time, it is the creep along speed that we (all equally) get stuck in.

Ask anyone who drives a trailer to horse shows how much longer it really takes them from the barn to the show vs the sports sedan that the other half of the family are in.

I decided a long time ago that I already pay enough (with a good driving record) for insurance and taxes, so my default cruise speed is below the "Good afternoon officer....." threshold.

I've driven long personal trips as you describe..... steady driving, with only short rest breaks, is what gets it done.....

Situational awareness...... some of what we discuss in this thread revolves around distinct situations, that while perhaps not commonplace, aren't one-in-a-billion occurrences either. How long will it take AI to get some of these scenarios "right".

I drove back across Canada last Spring. Trans-Canada hwy, in Alberta, very little traffic at all...... A dual commercial trailer (one hwy tractor) in front of me, with the back trailer likely empty. Totally open deserted multi-lane road ahead of me, so I passed that trailer combo at well above my normal speed.

Why did I make that once-in-a-decade+ exception ? Prairie Wind. That rear empty trailer was hitting something like 30 degrees off-vertical in the wind gusts.

If I was only going to the next exit, I might have stayed well behind that combo...... As I had multiple provinces yet to cross, I chose passing at a high rate of speed, vs. the legal move of slowly creeping past that combo at the limit. In this case, the "illegal" move was the significantly safer one.

Thinking of that drive..... Alberta has very strict limits on speed, when an emergency vehicle is on the side of a major highway - the legal limit drops drastically based on the live emergency situation, regardless of what's posted.

Present AI might safely pass that Alberta emergency vehicle on the roadside, but will it do so w/o a (major) ticket ?

Rgds, D.

 

[quicksandfarmer]

I wonder how an autonomous car will deal with passing a slower vehicle on a two lane highway? How much below the speed limit will the self-driver allow before passing someone? And when it does, how does it look way down the road for traffic that is approaching? If it can't exceed the speed limit, passing times will be greatly increased. Before passing, will the auto car look back for other approaching passers? Seems like a very complicated addition to the driverless system programming. There will be objects moving in the same direction, stationary objects (like trees and stopped cars) and approaching objects that are far away and coming fast. Will the passing self drivers be allowed to speed temporarily? Or flow with traffic at speeds above the posted limit? This problem seems harder to fix than driving on a multi-lane freeway and the US has millions of miles of two lane roads.

We may see a long string of cars that are all speed governed by the slowest of the slow, where normally they would get passed.

If an autonomous vehicle can't distinguish among same-direction traffic, opposite-direction traffic and stationary objects it's not getting very far...

 

[JasperFrank]

Having been a delivery driver, I don't see the tech anywhere close to the situations I had to face. I've driven across country 22 times. There is no way AI has a better solution. It can't for instance say, It will take the longer route, to avoid a congestion, that is built in to its algorithm. Thats what people can do. I can enjoy the different route, the longer route, even if it doesn't save me time, the other longer route enriches my life. That is something a computer can never do.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Having been a delivery driver, I don't see the tech anywhere close to the situations I had to face. I've driven across country 22 times. There is no way AI has a better solution. It can't for instance say, It will take the longer route, to avoid a congestion, that is built in to its algorithm. Thats what people can do. I can enjoy the different route, the longer route, even if it doesn't save me time, the other longer route enriches my life. That is something a computer can never do.

We're looking at 2050 for self driving vehicles for the general public I expect. Look for it first in planes, trains and ships.

 

[3930dave]

We're looking at 2050 for self driving vehicles for the general public I expect. Look for it first in planes, trains and ships.

Not Planes, Trains, and Automobiles ?

Planes Trains and Automobiles Going The Wrong Way - YouTube



If we could just bring John back......... he'd do a great Driverless Car version :laughing:

Rgds, D.

 

[crazyal]

Usually what the argument comes down to is those who look at conditions being either worse case or best case. For example, the string of self driving cars being 2 feet apart. On dry pavement that could be possible but since every car is different that's not going to work on a snow covered road when one of the cars has studded snow tires while one of the cars behind it has all seasons. Even a wet road would be an issue. The car in front is going to stop as quick as possible while the following cars will have to react and hopefully stop as well.

I look forward to the day when I can fill up my car, plug in a destination, and relax. Maybe even take a nap while the car drives until it needs gas (or a charge). I just don't think it's as close as some people think.

 

[Raspy]

Usually what the argument comes down to is those who look at conditions being either worse case or best case. For example, the string of self driving cars being 2 feet apart. On dry pavement that could be possible but since every car is different that's not going to work on a snow covered road when one of the cars has studded snow tires while one of the cars behind it has all seasons. Even a wet road would be an issue. The car in front is going to stop as quick as possible while the following cars will have to react and hopefully stop as well.

I look forward to the day when I can fill up my car, plug in a destination, and relax. Maybe even take a nap while the car drives until it needs gas (or a charge). I just don't think it's as close as some people think.

It does seem like a long way off, here in the real world. But it's nice to have a goal in mind that can lead to research and development. It's remarkable how far the technology has come.

Autonomous cars, as you describe them would be a game changer. Just relax and watch the scenery on longer trips as the miles add up. Like being on an airplane, except no airport security, parking, crowds, etc. The voice activated GPS would tell the car how to get there instead of telling the driver how to get there. Cars could be rented from a warehouse where they would be stored while charging and waiting for a call. They would drive over to meet you at home when needed. They could also carry on conversations, play your favorite music, make restaurant recommendations, make reservations based on predicted arrival times, point out points of interest, etc. Voice recognition is already very advanced, so by the time they become available it will be as easy to talk to them as talking to a person. Ride sharing would look different because none of the passengers own the car. It could make combined trips all over the area then return to the warehouse. As cities become more crowded and younger people feel less inclined to own a car, this system makes more sense. Call for an Uber and there is an autonomous car already in the neighborhood on it's way back to the warehouse, so it stops by for your short trip of a mile or two and then proceeds on to where it was going before you called. Very quick response, cheap, and no hassle. Every Saturday morning at 9AM, one shows up to deliver you to the farmers market. Then another delivers Grandma for Sunday dinner. No car insurance, payments, repairs, maintenance, etc. Not for everyone, for sure, but workable for a lot of folks in the city, certainly. But then comes the other security problems. Terrorists simply programming bomb filled cars to go to their intended target, or being hacked to run at 100 MPH in town, etc.

Living in the country, I'll probably still be firing up the Cummins to manually drive to town! That is, unless fuel is 10 bux a gallon by then. I might even go for a casual Sunday drive in the old Mercedes and stop occasionally to see the scenery. OMG! How primitive!

 

[Reg]

We already HAVE "worst case".
A lot of it is amateurs "training" the next generation, but a lot more is the "examples" that they see every day of speed, rolling stops, failure to yield, running red lights, etc.
Cavalier attitude ?
Sure, Y'ain't a "Driver" 'til You've been cited 3 times.

I am (still) contributing to it by giving practice sessions to student drivers.
I can't pass it all along, nobody can, it took a LONG time to accumulate, not ALL of it is relevant "wisdom" anyway.
I try to NOT pass along my bad habits, at least not the WORST of them.

As to WHY they need to make note of a cyclist 1/4 mile away that is coming TOWARDS them on a country road - well, at least THAT grandchild asked why I had pointed out the cyclist.

 

[Reg]

re earlier post re how "close" autonomous vehicles may be.

To misquote my passenger side mirror; Events in the future are closer than they appear.

I believe that all the enabling technologies are already HERE and have been for quite a while.
With the exception of IDIOTS climbing into the back seat to get video of their Tesla "driving itself" public acceptance is lagging.
{Teslas are NOT "self driving", they have some fairly advanced driver assistance features.}
Regulatory acceptance is lagging even more - but legislation has ALWAYS lagged progress - and probably should.
================================================
BTW, I test "drove" a Tesla 3 last week.
I expected a different kind of car, but it was differently different.
First up; The door mirrors were very small - explanation; you're not expected to use them in quite the same way(s).
There is a HUGE tablet in the center that is supposed to be used for a LOT of driver controlled functions and settings - that and voice control, siri style.
I commented that I would prefer that the move away from "dash" instruments be toward heads up display, the test drive sales guy countered that with something about engineering out the "need" to check instruments.
I think I countered with "so why display that stuff on a tablet screen".
It devolved into a safety concern about near focus to far focus being ONE of the problems with texting - I would still prefer head up display of whatever I still need to look at - to keep far focus.

Next; The steering is quite a bit HEAVIER than most cars, suvs, or light trucks.
Supposedly there is a setting for that.

Auto-pilot mode; Unfortunate naming, but the lane following and spacing to the vehicle in front was a LOT smoother than the Volvo I had tried a couple of years ago (OK, progress).

Regenerative braking; When backing off the accelerator this was VERY noticeable, it felt like a big engine in a light car with manual transmission in one of the low gears.
Another setting, although I didn't try a lighter one and by the end of the test drive I had probably trained my right foot to do what I would do with a manual trans in low gear to moderate the "engine braking".

There are some weird(to me) signalling protocols that have crept in from the computer and phone cultures, e.g. double tapping of brake pedal and turn signal stalk.

Overall I liked it, but it would take some getting used to - less than a week, maybe 100 miles of mixed town/country/city driving, no more than any other "new car" adjustment.

I probably WON'T buy one, it is low to the ground.
I am old, large and inflexible.
It is NOT easy for me to get into or out of, probably harder for my spouse.
Light truck sized SUVs fit us more easily.

HARD to believe that Musk didn't see the WWII baby boomers as a market sweet spot in their retirement years - maybe their NEXXT one will be easy entry/exit ?

 

[prof fate]

A few companies are working on OTR self driving trucks. Cross any interstate in teh wee hours and you'll see hundreds of trucks parked - drivers sleeping.
If trucks could move 24/7 you'd have no driver shortage and need far fewer trucks, lowering the cost of capital, the cost of transport. And making the owners richer - so it WILL happen.

Drivers will take over at terminals in each city for local delivery.

But to cross I-70? yeah, robots will be doing that within a decade.

As for planes, they fly themselves now and can land/takeoff but still have humans around to verify that part of the flight. It's reaching the point pilots fly so little that when they need to they can't!

Ships... Rolls-Royce Wants to Fill the Seas With Self-Sailing Ships | WIRED

Having been a delivery driver, I don't see the tech anywhere close to the situations I had to face. I've driven across country 22 times. There is no way AI has a better solution. It can't for instance say, It will take the longer route, to avoid a congestion, that is built in to its algorithm. Thats what people can do. I can enjoy the different route, the longer route, even if it doesn't save me time, the other longer route enriches my life. That is something a computer can never do.

 

[prof fate]

Cities first, or inter states. then slowly other places.
Probably a long time till it's everywhere.

Electricty, phones, cable tv, high speed internet..all in cities first and slowly working out to rural areas. I think everywhere has elec and phones. I have a friend that has no cable...too rural (and it's 40 miles from a major city).

So cars will be that way..what, 5 years till city use? as in uber/google/apple cars. Not so much tesla's version of self driving cars for you and me. Not for another 5 years maybe.

Who can say...the 'tech pack' that enables self driving has dropped from $100k to $1700 in less than 5 years...in 5 more computers will be much faster, tech cheaper and more wide spread.

AT&T in 1985 did research to determine how many cell phones will there be in 2000. Best guess was 985,000. The real number ended up being 120,000,000. And that was long before the smart phone.
So even teh best brains today won't get it right, guesstimate wise.

My mother worked in computers starting in 1951, she had to explain to people what it was (a computer). In HS (late 70s) I talked about going into computers, her and her coworkers said there's no future in it - you only need so many accounting, payroll and inventory programs. There will only be 3 big programming houses, 4 computer companies. Boy were they wrong!

Much of the revolutions come from OUTSIDE the industry...tesla? google and uber? making cars? Yep.

PC's were invented by ... IBM, but you can't buy an IBM computer today.
Nokia was KING of cell phones...till apple, a computer company, came out with a phone. Who has a nokia now?
The micro chip was invented by Texas Instruments. I had TI calculators way back when. Anyone heard of them lately? They didn't bring about computers.

Those 'outside' of the main company/industry are the ones that seem to innovate and make new markets and products.

Usually what the argument comes down to is those who look at conditions being either worse case or best case. For example, the string of self driving cars being 2 feet apart. On dry pavement that could be possible but since every car is different that's not going to work on a snow covered road when one of the cars has studded snow tires while one of the cars behind it has all seasons. Even a wet road would be an issue. The car in front is going to stop as quick as possible while the following cars will have to react and hopefully stop as well.

I look forward to the day when I can fill up my car, plug in a destination, and relax. Maybe even take a nap while the car drives until it needs gas (or a charge). I just don't think it's as close as some people think.

 

[aczlan]

I probably WON'T buy one, it is low to the ground.
I am old, large and inflexible.
It is NOT easy for me to get into or out of, probably harder for my spouse.
Light truck sized SUVs fit us more easily.

HARD to believe that Musk didn't see the WWII baby boomers as a market sweet spot in their retirement years - maybe their NEXXT one will be easy entry/exit ?

That one is already here, they call it the Model X.

Aaron Z

 

[Gale Hawkins]

That one is already here, they call it the Model X.

Aaron Z

Thanks for that info. I could get in and out of the X I think if I had $100K that I would never otherwise need.

Our Week in the Tesla Model X — Cars.com - YouTube