Has Agriculture Reached Its Peak?

[smstonypoint]

It has something to do with Maine not being in the "Federal Order"; I don't know what that means really.

Gaining an understanding of milk pricing in the US is no small feat. I used to ask the colleague I referenced in post #59 to lecture my undergraduate agricultural marketing class on the US milk marketing system. It took all of the lecture time (75 minutes) to cover just a few of the issues involved.

My colleague was in demand as an expert witness in hearings of various state milk boards/commissions. In doing so, he obtained evidence that numeracy is not a requirement for admission to the Bar.

During cross-examination, he was asked a question to which he replied "The mean price was $x.xx/gallon."

At this point, the attorney conferred with his/her colleagues for several minutes.

The attorney then asked, "Professor, you say the mean price was $x.xx/gallon. What about the average price"?

My colleague replied, "They are synonymous."

The attorney responded, "Oh. Well, moving on."

Steve

 

[LJH]

I pay $5 a gallon from a neighbor's dairy. It's raw, with a couple inches of cream on top of each jug. As you drive up to the little on-ranch dairy store their beautiful Brown Swiss cows will meander over to say hey. I'd be hard pressed to go back to store-bought.

 

[dave1949]

Gaining an understanding of milk pricing in the US is no small feat. I used to ask the colleague I referenced in post #59 to lecture my undergraduate agricultural marketing class on the US milk marketing system. It took all of the lecture time (75 minutes) to cover just a few of the issues involved.

My colleague was in demand as an expert witness in hearings of various state milk boards/commissions. In doing so, he obtained evidence that numeracy is not a requirement for admission to the Bar.

During cross-examination, he was asked a question to which he replied "The mean price was $x.xx/gallon."

At this point, the attorney conferred with his/her colleagues for several minutes.

The attorney then asked, "Professor, you say the mean price was $x.xx/gallon. What about the average price"?

My colleague replied, "They are synonymous."

The attorney responded, "Oh. Well, moving on."

Steve

:laughing: The mean price is milk from nasty cows.

What are the chances that a Dairy Commission created in 1935 is useful? Dairy farms in Maine have largely disappeared over that time, so they didn't preserve the local industry, which would have served the Maine milk producers and consumers well. The commission is funded by a 5 cent per hundredweight tariff on raw milk it seems.

I guess it is like most things in agriculture, scale-up or get out. Declining milk products consumption doesn't help.
http://www.wmmb.com/assets/media/statistics/lg_us_per_capita_milk_sales_60_12.gif

Check out the declining number of dairy farms and rising production in Wisconsin:
http://www.wmmb.com/assets/media/statistics/lg_wi_dairy_farms_milk_production_30_12.gif

The above are from:
Dairy Statistics

 

[dave1949]

Milk is good for you according to this study.

The University of Maine - UMaine News - Study finds dairy products in adult diets improve cognitive function
Those who consumed the most dairy products had the highest scores in an extensive cognitive test battery that included multiple measures of visual-spatial ability, verbal memory, working memory, reasoning ability and executive functioning (the ability to plan, organize and integrate cognitive functions).

Diet modification to include more dairy products is one lifestyle change that could slow or prevent age-related cognitive impairment and decline, according to the researchers, who reported their findings in the International Dairy Journal.

 

[rekees4300]

Milk is good for you according to this study.

There are also studies that suggest milk causes prostate cancer. I've switched to soy milk called Silk.

PCRM | Milk and Prostate Cancer: The Evidence Mounts

 

[smstonypoint]

Milk is good for you according to this study.

http://umaine.edu/news/blog/2011/09...ts-in-adult-diets-improve-cognitive-function/

There are also studies that suggest milk causes prostate cancer. I've switched to soy milk called Silk.

[url=http://pcrm.org/health/health-topics//milk-and-prostate-cancer-the-evidence-mounts]PCRM | Milk and Prostate Cancer: The Evidence Mounts

On the bright side, you will remember to schedule your prostate exam if you do drink milk.

Steve

 

[sseelhoff]

There are also studies that suggest milk causes prostate cancer. I've switched to soy milk called Silk.

PCRM | Milk and Prostate Cancer: The Evidence Mounts

I've switched to almond milk. No cholesterol, and lower in calories than real milk.

 

[dave1949]

There are also studies that suggest milk causes prostate cancer. I've switched to soy milk called Silk.

PCRM | Milk and Prostate Cancer: The Evidence Mounts

I didn't really want to know that. I've always enjoyed dairy products although I do limit my intake.

 

[DFB]

Wow this guy has set a new harvest record and claims to have done it all through organic soil building techniques!

Record: Virginia produces world's biggest corn harvest | WashingtonExaminer.com

 

[vabiker23518]

This study suggests just that.

The study by scientists at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln argues that there have been abrupt declines or plateaus in the rate of production of major crops which undermine optimistic projections of constantly increasing crop yields.

Seems corn, grain, and rice production has reached it limits with no serious increases over the past decade...

A concern is that despite the increase in investment in agricultural R&D and education during this period, the relative rate of yield gain for the major food crops has decreased over time together with evidence of upper yield plateaus in some of the most productive domains.

It also criticizes most other yield projection models which predict compound or exponential production increases over coming years and decades, saying these do not occur in the real world. And that such growth rates are not feasible over the long term because average farm yields eventually approach a yield potential ceiling determined by biophysical limits on crop growth rates and yield.

And goes on to say that five decades of perpetually increasing crop yields were driven by rapid adoption of technologies that were largely one-time innovations

The new research raises critical questions about the capacity of traditional industrial agricultural methods to sustain global food production for a growing world population.

And according to other links attached to the news release on the study, food production will need to increase by about 60% by 2050 to meet demand and also suggests that from another report that agro ecology based on sustainable, small-scale, organic methods could potentially double food production in entire regions facing persistent hunger, over five to 10 years.

Read more here

Dramatic decline in industrial agriculture could herald 叢eak food | The Raw Story

You know, we always get these academic reports.
Remember the theory of peak oil from the 70s? We were supposed to be out of fossil fuels by now. And where are we? 2013 was the biggest production year EVER in the US.
Remember Carl Sagan in the 90s saying we would all starve to death due to lack of food. Has that happended? I'm still eating!
There are those that will say I've got my head in the sand.... I think as long as mankind has a brain and the entrepreneurial spirit to see a need and come up with a solution, we will be just fine.

 

[dmccarty]

Gaining an understanding of milk pricing in the US is no small feat. I used to ask the colleague I referenced in post #59 to lecture my undergraduate agricultural marketing class on the US milk marketing system. It took all of the lecture time (75 minutes) to cover just a few of the issues involved.

My colleague was in demand as an expert witness in hearings of various state milk boards/commissions. In doing so, he obtained evidence that numeracy is not a requirement for admission to the Bar.

During cross-examination, he was asked a question to which he replied "The mean price was $x.xx/gallon."

At this point, the attorney conferred with his/her colleagues for several minutes.

The attorney then asked, "Professor, you say the mean price was $x.xx/gallon. What about the average price"?

My colleague replied, "They are synonymous."

The attorney responded, "Oh. Well, moving on."

Steve

The court room dialog is both funny and sad at the same time.

If a government program is so complicated that it's implications/regulations cannot be fully explained in 75 minutes, then the program should be ended.

We usually pay $4.00 for a store brand gallon of milk. A gallon of milk from a local diary costs around $5.00 and is VERY good. There usually is a bit of cream on top of the milk. A gallon of organic milk is $6.00 and tastes really good too. We can't remember if the local diary is organic or not.

Later,
Dan

 

[dmccarty]

Wow this guy has set a new harvest record and claims to have done it all through organic soil building techniques!

Record: Virginia produces world's biggest corn harvest | WashingtonExaminer.com

Oww, you beat me to what I was going to post! :laughing::laughing::laughing:

I could not find the report I first read but here is another one, Corn Growers Reveal National Yield Contest Results - Farm Futures

What is interesting about this story is that the winning farm produced 454 bushels of cord per acre compared to the national average of 160 bushels per acre. The real surprise to me and the wifey was that the farmer was in VA and that the other farmers with over 400 bushels per acre were all in the south! :confused3: They were in VA, GA, and TX! I would have expected the highest yields to be in the midwest. The top growers where using No Till or Strip Till methods and the winner is using organic methods as well.

Years ago I bought a book by Jimmy Carter about his growing up in rural GA. I can't remember the numbers now but he talked about how low and stable farm land prices were for generations, the problem with trying to farm on small acreage, and the low yields. I think he said that farmers were getting 25ish bushels per acre. I just did a search, A brief history of U.S. corn, in one chart and found a nice chart that shows farmers were getting 20-30 bushels of corn per acre the mid 1800's until the 1940s. In the 1940's, corn yields started to sky rocket as fertilizers and mechanization took hold.

I would love to know the yields that my wifey's grandfather got on his farm. He took notes on everything... We need to see if we can find those notebooks...

Later,
Dan

 

[smstonypoint]

I think he said that farmers were getting 25ish bushels per acre. I just did a search, A brief history of U.S. corn, in one chart and found a nice chart that shows farmers were getting 20-30 bushels of corn per acre the mid 1800's until the 1940s. In the 1940's, corn yields started to sky rocket as fertilizers and mechanization took hold.

I would love to know the yields that my wifey's grandfather got on his farm. He took notes on everything... We need to see if we can find those notebooks...

Later,
Dan

Dan,

You left out hybridization.

Depending on how old your wife's grandfather is, you may find that he grew a substantial acreage of oats. Before mechanization, farmers had to devote acreage to crops that were fed to their draft animals (horses/mules).

Steve

 

[aczlan]

Oww, you beat me to what I was going to post! :laughing::laughing::laughing:
I could not find the report I first read but here is another one, Corn Growers Reveal National Yield Contest Results - Farm Futures
What is interesting about this story is that the winning farm produced 454 bushels of cord per acre compared to the national average of 160 bushels per acre. The real surprise to me and the wifey was that the farmer was in VA and that the other farmers with over 400 bushels per acre were all in the south! :confused3: They were in VA, GA, and TX! I would have expected the highest yields to be in the midwest. The top growers where using No Till or Strip Till methods and the winner is using organic methods as well.

It would be interesting to see the cost per bushel as well. Its all well and good to be making 400+ bushels per acre, but if it costs twice as much to grow, it wont take off until the price of corn doubles.

Aaron Z

 

[dmccarty]

Dan,

You left out hybridization.

Depending on how old your wife's grandfather is, you may find that he grew a substantial acreage of oats. Before mechanization, farmers had to devote acreage to crops that were fed to their draft animals (horses/mules).

Steve

On the farm they had a small dairy operation so they had pasture for the cow and bulls and they had to make hay as well. They did use mules as well so that required more pasture. There are only two barns left standing and one of those is still called the mule barn. It is in bad shape though. They could save the barn with a bit of effort but I don't they will try which is a shame. The dairy, which has not been used in decades, is still in good shape though. There is supposed to be a small house that was used by the diary man but I have yet to find it! The house is in some overgrown woods and I just can't find that house. The farm backs up to the Tar River and I know were the river is located but I have yet been able to walk down to the river either.

Hopefully, we can find the old note books...

Later,
Dan

 

[smstonypoint]

It would be interesting to see the cost per bushel as well. Its all well and good to be making 400+ bushels per acre, but if it costs twice as much to grow, it wont take off until the price of corn doubles.Aaron Z

Excuse me for saying so, but you think like an economist. Farmers maximize profits, rather than yields, according to the theory of the firm.

Steve

 

[aczlan]

Excuse me for saying so, but you think like an economist.

You mean I think logically?

Farmers maximize profits, rather than yields, according to the theory of the firm.

As should anyone who is trying to make money rather than lose it...

Aaron Z

 

[smstonypoint]

You mean I think logically?

Yes!

Steve

 

[DFB]

Yes Dan it be interesting to note what your grandfather wrote. Most folks don't realize just what great yields plants can produce with the right applications of fertilizer, N,P &K and some micro nutrients. And of course using hybridized varieties does also help. (especially with uniformity and size variation) I've said it before here with tomatoes 20lb per plant is an optimum yield to strive for with determinate cropping. That be 40 half pound tomatoes on every plant. Most folks be proud to get 10...tomatoes that is. :laughing: This summer I forgot I had hose running in a barrel of water with soluble fert I was mixing up, it overflowed for awhile into the garden there were two tomato plants nearby. It's unbelievable how much bigger and greener and productive those two were over the rest of the garden!

But of course the weeds got that much bigger too!

 

[DFB]

So this is the future...will big AG completely control farmers? It is the direction were headed. How much information is too much information?

"Imagine cows fed and milked entirely by robots. Or tomatoes that send an e-mail when they need more water. Or a farm where all the decisions about where to plant seeds, spray fertilizer and steer tractors are made by software on servers on the other side of the sea."

This is what more and more of our agriculture may come to look like in the years ahead, as farming meets Big Data. There is no shortage of farmers and industry gurus who think this kind of smart farming could bring many benefits. Pushing these tools onto fields, the idea goes, will boost our ability to control this fiendishly unpredictable activity and help farmers increase yields even while using fewer resources.

Monsanto's Terrifying New Scheme: Massive Amounts of Data Collection | Alternet