New Tractor Sales Are Declining

[2manyrocks]

My finance professor once said that the US economy is too large and complex for central planning to work.

An economist like Milton Friedman wouldn't have done what was done 2020-present or 2008 to present, either.

 

[newbury]

Yes and that's my point. The economy has drastically changed for the worse in just 3 years and the forecast from economic experts say its going to get much worse.

Gad, what short term memories some people seem to have.
3 years ago, March 2020 we were closing schools, undergoing lockdowns etc.
From the wikipedia:

March 16
President Trump issued new guidelines urging people to avoid social gatherings of more than ten people and to restrict discretionary travel.

/edit - didn't realize the presidents name would turn to asterisks

 

[nova3930]

It might be 0% interest but from what I'm seeing on their websites for equipment costs they're making it up by charging more for equipment. I'm guessing it is a marketing ploy.

"Hey let's have 0% interest in an economy where the interest rates are going up but charge more for our tractors."

I'd be curious to see what a cash buyer can get one of those tractors for that are overpriced.

Depending on the particulars could still be a good deal. 0% when "official" inflation is 6+% doesn't work out so bad....real inflation is probably more like 12%

 

[TN8Man]

Gad, what short term memories some people seem to have.
3 years ago, March 2020 we were closing schools, undergoing lockdowns etc.
From the wikipedia:

/edit - didn't realize the presidents name would turn to asterisks

Remember the V curve?

 

[Hay Dude]

One thing is certain. These people responsible for the hell this country is going through right now need to answer some tough questions.
Many say a day of financial reckoning is coming for America very soon. Many also say its’ taxpaying citizens are going to be demanding answers.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

I’m slowly being priced out of the market.

Who isn't

 

[Sid Post]

For me, this has a lot of political content regarding vote buying and pandering to voters by various groups.

When you look at Political Action Committees and who funds them, then look at the laws passed by those benefitting from the PAC money, to me it often looks like vote buying.

In the end, "the cost" is touted as being paid by the other person so, of course, we want the government handout since we don't have "skin in the game". What do you do once you have "taken all of the other guy's/gal's money?" And, what does this mentality do to society? Who would have thought "minimum Mondays" would become a thing? And the list goes on.

Where has governing to the middle gone? The majority of America has generally always been in the middle. Now, with super divisive politics, we are pitting each other against each other to what end?

How did rent and mortgage suspension work during COVID for everyone? Great if you didn't have skin in the game and got to spend your rent or mortgage on a new ski boat, motorcycle, etc. but, what about the working-class family renting out one house that went into foreclosure and bankruptcy because they couldn't cover the "unpaid" rent on the rental house? Or the banks that didn't get any mortgage payments for ~24 months and had to pay for eviction expenses?

Taxing the "Millionaires" sounds good until you become a Millionaire and then it is 'tax the Billionaires!' This is the refrain I hear from of very vocal new voices in Congress that couldn't afford a car and now drive an expensive Tesla. How does someone earning under $200K a year afford a $100K car and an expensive apartment?

And then my personal experience:
I was negotiating to buy a new Kubota tractor as COVID hit. As specced, it was ~$72K but, as COVID hit that tractor could not be built. Then about six months ago, a very similar tractor was specced and priced at ~$96K! Then during my recent tractor search, I was offered a better specced tractor from the same Kubota series for $88K.

$72K vs $96K makes me look elsewhere though, I didn't forget to check in on Team Orange this go around. If I had panic bought at $96K like many people did on motorcycles, boats, cars, and similar stuff and then saw a better version for $88K six months later, what would I do and how would I feel?

Today, that $88K or $96K will get a lot more tractor so, that is a win in my book! Honestly, at this point, I am looking at spending a bit more to get a substantially upgraded tractor today versus a few years from now to combat future price inflation and, to speed up the jobs I'm doing now.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

I am currently shopping,new and used.The new prices are staggering but so are the used.Made a offer yesterday on a 5 year old tractor ,the guy wouldn’t even counter and he has had it for sale since last July.

Powell's medicine hasn't kicked in yet. Wait till he ups the dosage.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

I,m finally starting to see private sellers adds which states they cann,t afford to make payments any more. Unfortunately, a lot of those sellers are upside down on their loans, so they are going to take a financial beating if they want to get out of them.

Where have you seen these ads?

 

[Hay Dude]

It's not just optimism, it's just that short term trends are so easy to work with. Easy to see, to change, and to see results. The downside to that is that you have short term downturns oscillating with short term upturns.... It can make a person dizzy and pessimistic.

I like to focus on the longer term. And it looks pretty good to me. Things world-wide are healthier, wealthier, and more free than ever before in mankind's history. We are exploring outer space and the bottom of the ocean. Fascination exists at every level.
And for tractors and equipment, nobody is forcing me to buy new; I can fix old things to my heart's content.

For proof of how all this is working in the good old USA, just take a look at our borders. Those people are fighting to get here, not to leave here for a better life somewhere else.

rScotty

Just heard that Americans are in the higher credit card debt than in last 20 years, so I will add that to my list of concerns.
Luckily I’m not, but I fear for my brothers & sisters who are

 

[turbo36]

Who isn't

Well, for one, I’m not. I don’t see the doom and gloom that everybody is talking about for our country. This is still the greatest country in the world and the opportunities are immense!. Maybe I’m lucky but I understand the rules of the current economic system and I applied it to my benefit. Yeah, if we were to go into hyper inflation like Venezuela, maybe I would be in trouble but pretty sure the country would implode if it happened, so you know, gold and guns, right?

 

[Hay Dude]

Who isn't

Well, I guess the difference here is I need tractors to eat and put a roof over my family’s head.
Many (not all) TBN members could live without a tractor.
For the TBN members who rely on equipment to EAT, not being able to afford a tractor has a more serious meaning.

 

[rScotty]

Just heard that Americans are in the higher credit card debt than in last 20 years, so I will add that to my list of concerns.
Luckily I’m not, but I fear for my brothers & sisters who are

OK. I just think I've almost figured out how to include two different posts from different pages... except for them being out of sequence.

But to answer Hay Dude, a higher credit card debt is exactly the sort of short term problems that are easy to work with. It's a totally new problem that didn't even use to exist before credit cards became common.

So the "problem" is easy to see. And the solution - to spend less - is easy to understand and to implement.

It's such an easy thing to fix that it takes less time to type this than to fix the problem. And the people that spend less also get to avoid inflation and interest rates.

We live in a society that people are fighting to get into; not trying to leave.

rScotty

 

[Sid Post]

It's not just optimism, it's just that short term trends are so easy to work with. Easy to see, to change, and to see results. The downside to that is that you have short term downturns oscillating with short term upturns.... It can make a person dizzy and pessimistic.

True for people that are very short-sighted and have very limited memories.

I like to focus on the longer term. And it looks pretty good to me. Things world-wide are healthier, wealthier, and more free than ever before in mankind's history. We are exploring outer space and the bottom of the ocean. Fascination exists at every level.
And for tractors and equipment, nobody is forcing me to buy new; I can fix old things to my heart's content.

Let's see, shorter lifespans. Human rights atrocities in China, Ukraine, North Korea, and arguably significant portions of Africa and the Mid-East.

Sorry but, I just don't see the 'wealthier' comment for the average person. Savings are down, home ownership is down, etc. Things may be great for the Ultra-Wealthy but, for normal people in most parts of the world, things are worse today than they were a few years ago and there is no reason to expect them to change significantly. Women in Iran are still being shot in the street and killed by police in custody because they didn't wear their head scarf as some Religious bully thought they should. Ask family members about the "re-education camps" in China to re-educate their disfavored minority with SLAVE LABOR. Ask an Indian about the Caste system in India. How about North Koreans starving to death to support their military ambitions and their "dear leader?" And the list goes on with child slave labor for solar panels and EV car materials in Africa and Asia. And, I am no ECO **** but, what is being done in places like the Atacama Desert in South America and the Amazon is a travesty IMHO.

For proof of how all this is working in the good old USA, just take a look at our borders. Those people are fighting to get here, not to leave here for a better life somewhere else.

rScotty

While this is true for some, for many it is all about the money. Why would they want to live in an apartment in Brazil and work on a farm when they can come to the USA and get a $350/night motel room, free food, medical care, etc., and have all the free time in the world to have *** in hotel stairwells and do drugs while trashing their rooms with alcohol-fueled parties with rotting food all over the room?

There is a drastic difference between a woman fleeing a death sentence from Iran who comes to the USA and is a productive member of Society and a young man crossing the border illegally to cause mayhem and destruction with no repercussions.

I suspect if you lived closer to the border and interacted with these people you speak about so favorably, you might come away with a more nuanced view of those fleeing for their lives and those coming here for the money and benefits of our current political regime.

 

[Hay Dude]

True for people that are very short-sighted and have very limited memories.


Let's see, shorter lifespans. Human rights atrocities in China, Ukraine, North Korea, and arguably significant portions of Africa and the Mid-East.

Sorry but, I just don't see the 'wealthier' comment for the average person. Savings are down, home ownership is down, etc. Things may be great for the Ultra-Wealthy but, for normal people in most parts of the world, things are worse today than they were a few years ago and there is no reason to expect them to change significantly. Women in Iran are still being shot in the street and killed by police in custody because they didn't wear their head scarf as some Religious bully thought they should. Ask family members about the "re-education camps" in China to re-educate their disfavored minority with SLAVE LABOR. Ask an Indian about the Caste system in India. How about North Koreans starving to death to support their military ambitions and their "dear leader?" And the list goes on with child slave labor for solar panels and EV car materials in Africa and Asia. And, I am no ECO **** but, what is being done in places like the Atacama Desert in South America and the Amazon is a travesty IMHO.



While this is true for some, for many it is all about the money. Why would they want to live in an apartment in Brazil and work on a farm when they can come to the USA and get a $350/night motel room, free food, medical care, etc., and have all the free time in the world to have *** in hotel stairwells and do drugs while trashing their rooms with alcohol-fueled parties with rotting food all over the room?

There is a drastic difference between a woman fleeing a death sentence from Iran who comes to the USA and is a productive member of Society and a young man crossing the border illegally to cause mayhem and destruction with no repercussions.

I suspect if you lived closer to the border and interacted with these people you speak about so favorably, you might come away with a more nuanced view of those fleeing for their lives and those coming here for the money and benefits of our current political regime.

Very well said. Could not agree more.
I will add that from everything I am seeing, slavery may be worse now than ever. We may very well have items in our homes or cars made with slave labor.

 

[Sid Post]

Very well said. Could not agree more.
I will add that from everything I am seeing, slavery may be worse now than ever. We may very well have items in our homes or cars made with slave labor.

I am somewhat involved with charity support in other parts of the world.

If you look at the children working gold fields or rare Earth mineral mines in Africa, they are often in camps run by Jihadist terror groups in conditions harkening back to the atrocities of the Belgian Congo. Even UN troops in Africa were caught trading food for *** with 12 year-old and younger girls trying to avoid starvation. The living conditions of the construction workers I saw in the Mid-East were barely one notch above the slave plantations in the dark days of the USA during our Slavery period. Children all over Asia and the Pacific Rim countries are suffering greatly from hazardous chemicals and heavy metals as they reclaim rare earth metals from our discarded electronics as well.

While it is illegal in most nations in the West to buy products from forced or slave labor and those of underage children, in the global system, how do you know your purchases are free of these atrocities?

For myself, I try to avoid products generally from Asia, the Pacific Rim countries, and Africa. That being said, there are initiatives to certify "the right things are being done" whether coffee beans, spices, etc. that I will wholeheartedly support. I am also a big fan of micro-loans and things like Heifer.org and similar organizations that give an animal to someone to help bring them out of poverty and starvation and pay it forward once they have grown their own stock to a reasonable level.

At the moment, I am torn between Solar energy versus something else because the batteries and solar panels have so much Chinese content with such a horrendous human rights record for Chinese citizens, Uyghurs, and the people supplying the raw materials from other parts of the world and the ecological disasters China supports with its policies and mineral extraction.

 

[rScotty]

It's got to be hard to change the whole world. And in some areas it would be hard to make changes right at home. But in most of the Western World making changes to a person's own life are easy. And since we are here; we are lucky enough to have a pretty good place.
TBNers always did seem to me to be a bunch of doers.

We can savely leave the complaining to the politicians. They are happiest when inventing problems. After all, it's what they do best.
rScotty

 

[CloverKnollFarms]

When people accrue debt to pay for essentials… the solution is not so easy

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

I get that some of you believe the world is falling apart. There are a lot of problems but that is nothing new. There has always been a lot of problems, the only difference today is we have so much more media coverage and instant communication then we did in years and decades past. However, remember that the media loves to report problems but never has any solutions. They spend endless amounts of time everyday asking all these so called "experts" for their opinions about what should be done to address the problems and the answers are always something a 1st grader could of told you. What positive change has the media brought to society? What solutions has it come up with and implemented to make the world a better place?

This is really nothing new as the Greeks and Romans used to sit around and philosophy about the world and it's problems hundreds and thousands of years ago. After all the time spent doing that it never fixed the problems. The world has always had wickedness in it and always will. It's not going away. And the book I read tells me this place is going to get worse not better as time goes on. Just something to ponder.

 

[Cahaba Valley Farm]

Well, I guess the difference here is I need tractors to eat and put a roof over my family’s head.

Hay Dude you have TONS of tractors and equipment. You probably have more farm and Ag equipment then any member here on this whole forum. Can you not make due with what you have until the equipment market gets some price correction?