Slowpoke Slim
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It used to be part of my job in USAF to know these things.With Russia yet again threatening the west with nukes, I thought it might be a good idea to spread some information that I've learned so far.
The blast will probably occur in a city, or all the cities. If they do it, they'll likely go all in with a 500 nuke strike. How many will actually make it to mainland or hit their intended target is another thing. We do have reasonable knowledge that most of their deployable nuclear weapons are ~150kt range. Surviving a direct hit isn't possible, but assuming you aren't hit, there's a few basic things you can do to survive the fallout.
Here's the most likely target map. The purple triangles are in a 500 warhead scenario, the black dots are in a 2000 warhead scenario.
Fortunately for me, I'm in-between targets, but fallout would rain down considerably over my head. Unfortunately for me, my house didn't come with a fallout shelter. So I built one.
The thing about fallout is, once the bomb lands, it spreads in the air and follows the wind. If Baltimore, MD or Washington DC got hit, their fallout would make a bee-line for me.
NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein
NUKEMAP is a mapping mash-up that calculates the effects of the detonation of a nuclear bomb.nukemap.org
Fallout is tiny particles blasting radiation around in all directions. If it is outside, and you are inside behind a concrete wall, you have a degree of protection. However if you are inside and it lands on your roof, and your roof is made of shingles and wood rafters, you are not very protected. The key to protection from fallout is mass. Lead offers a high density per volume, but is expensive. Concrete and steel are good, followed by dirt.
So, hiding in the sub-basement of a brick five story apartment building will leave you exposed to just 1/200 the amount of fallout radiation outside; hanging out in the living room of your one story wood frame house will only cut down the radiation by about one-half, which, if you are next to a nuclear explosion, will not do much to help you.
Fortunately, fallout typically runs it's course in 48-72 hours, but if you're seeking shelter, it's probably a good idea to stay a week just in case. So it's a good idea to have a week's supplies in your shelter. Personally, my shelter is in my basement, a 12x12 room with 8" solid concrete walls and roof. My house is made of concrete block, so leaving the shelter for a short period to use the bathroom is generally ok, making it easier.
As fallout particles are airborne, think of snowfall. Fallout will blanket everywhere snow does. If there are open windows or doors, fallout will come in them. So sealing your house to be as air tight as possible will be to your advantage. Close and tape all windows, door seems, anywhere that air can get in. Fallout will lay on the ground, roof, window ledges, anywhere snow can get to. And it will be blasting radiation in all directions.
If you have a direct line of sight to it, you are only protected by what is between you and it. Stand in your basement and look up, you are protected by the floor, carpet, ceiling drywall on first floor, plywood on the roof, and shingles. if you look at a wall, you're protected by the wall, and what the wall is made of. Don't count the studs or joists or trusses, they are not useful. If you stand in front of a window, you are protected by the glass in that window alone.
I've attached some additional resources for extra reading time.
I'm open to constructive criticism, or any corrections, or if anyone wants to contribute to this they are welcome to.
How many Soviet missiles are aimed at how many targets, etc., etc. (Yes, I know the "Soviets" are no more, but most of their equipment is still in service aka "Russia").
Your map is extremely optimistic. The Soviet (remember them) era missiles were extremely inaccurate in their ability to get a center strike on a given target. So much so that the Soviet's plan included launching *MANY* missiles at a single target, to insure at least one of them hit and knocked it out. That was always why they had so many more than US/allies. So where you had a critical target that they determined MUST be knocked out, (think of NORAD Cheyenne Mountain) they would hurl many times more warheads at that target then necessary. Quantity over quality.
So the actual "map" of nuke strikes is going to be pretty much wall to wall warhead impacts. Any major city is a target all by itself. That's a logistics thing. Leave no available "reserve" forces to draw from if the war is a prolonged one. I've seen the real "map" with my own eyes, there's very little area left to hide in.
Also, an over-the-pole launched ICBM takes only 15 minutes from launch to target strike. A sea launched ballistic missile only takes 6 minutes. 1st wave is to take out critical targets, bomber bases, missile silos, radar sites, fighter bases. They need to knock out as many of those as they can in the first wave. Second wave is to knock out important infrastructure and major cities (New York, LA, etc). By the third wave (and likely last) is to knock out anything that's left, or that got missed in the first 2 waves.
By the end of wave 3, there will be nothing left for them to shoot at. There will also be no place to hide to survive. Even if you do survive waves 1-3, there will be radiation literally everywhere.
If you're on a remote desert island, or perhaps far out in the Canadian wilderness (but NOT near any of the radar sites or listening posts), you may survive waves 1-3. But what then? There will be NO civilization and no infrastructure left.
Since I live in one of the states that has the majority of the ICBM launch facilities in it, I will be ashes on the first wave. Better that (for me) than to "survive" to witness the end of mankind.
Unless you are on or living directly next to a military base (and depending on the base, maybe not even then) you will never know that nukes are inbound. No one is going to tell you. It is US military strategy to NOT tell the general public. There's no reason to notify us, all it may gain is more clogged highways and roads, as people panic and try to run "somewhere".