Foreman, I have the same baler you do (Vermeer 5410) I broke two belts when I first got the baler, it was used and had about a 1350 bale count. I had barely rolled 100 bales when it happened to me. I noticed some of the other splices were getting ready to rip out too, So I decided to switch all the belts to alligator splices and I resized all my belts to meet factor measurements... so far I haven't had another break. I've rolled about 400 bales since then. When I replace all the belts I will undoubtedly go with alligator splices. I hope this helps you with your decision.
EDIT: As for the roller problem, I'll take a look at mine tomorrow and snap a few pics of the roller maybe we'll both learn something useful...lol.