I don't know how much oil is out there, and I don't think it's a simple thing to figure out. I know that every year, more oil is discovered and the known oil reserves on the planet is constantly changing. 30 years ago the known oil reserves was very limited, but today, there is a massive amount of known oil available.
Government is creating the run up on the price of oil because they are limiting what we can drill. The gulf oil leak was a disaster that didn't need to have been, but it was handled so poorly that it's hard to believe that those in charge are really that stupid. Maybe they are, but their action after the spill have been right in line with their political leanings. Close down drilling and raise the price of oil.
All we have to do is remember what happened when George Bush agreed to open up more drilling off the coast. It didn't even happen, he just said he would allow it, and the world price on oil collapsed. Obama has close all that down and then a lot more. The results are easly predictable.
Eddie
I agree the estimated reserve amounts will change on the basis of new geological finds, and this will depend on what the industry believes to be economical to extract. The higher the price, the more it will be worth exploring tar sands, for example. But the easy to extract oil has been depleted. Much of what remains is in the form of tar sands where we need to consume 2 barrels of oil for every 3 produced.
This is an interesting resource that explains.
Tar Sands Basics
Not only are we on a diminishing resource that's harder and more expensive to extract, we're on an increasing consumption path, particularly by the third world. China will soon be the world's biggest consumer, perhaps they are already, It so happens their overall population is very high but but per capita, they are 144th, way behind Canada (19th) and the USA (23rd).
Oil consumption (per capita) (most recent) by country
Not only are most of the remaining untapped oil resources in tar sands, therefore hugely energy intensive (and expensive) to extract, they're also enormously more polluting than sinking a well and letting the goop bubble to the surface. Those are the reasons why I believe the argument for developing alternative energy sources is so compelling.
I have enormous faith in human ingenuity. I believe as a species we are more than capable of devising answers and there are a lot of companies engaged in this research. For example, Cella Energy in the UK has devised a new technology for hydrogen capture and storage which could mean very much cheaper gas without using fossil fuels. Here are two links on their technology.
Cella Energy - Home
Breakthrough promises $1.50 per gallon synthetic gasoline with no carbon emissions
It's my view that sooner or later we'll develop the breakthrough that will result in a carbon free substitute for oil. But just in case it's later, I think we can't afford the business-as-usual complacency to consumption. I believe we need to engage in pragmatic conservation methods by using more fuel efficient vehicles and by insulating our buildings better. Whether we like it or not, those measures are being forced on us by rising prices but if we're proactive rather than reactive, the price curve might not rise quite so steeply.
And the necessary technological breakthrough might be further away than my optimism allows for so we have to go through a period of international conflict in order to secure the energy reserves we need to avoid economic melt down. Energy conservation is a much easier route than conflict.