I see the end of the Desktop Computer

[jinman]

Does anyone remember mainframes and dumb terminals? How long before we are all using wireless keyboards and monitors in a "dumb terminal" configuration with all the CPU's locked away in a closet where IT can service them conveniently and keep the user's hands out of the goodies? Sorta like "back to the future"?

It will all come full circle soon in my estimation, and only "road warriors" will need and use laptops. Laptops with wireless connections already seem like dumb terminals to a network server to me.

 

[N80]

The desktop I have at work might as well be a dumb terminal. It allows very little use outside of one or two programs. In fact, there are no apps on it. The apps are accessed through a mainframe down town. Stupidest thing on earth if you ask me. What a waste of an otherwise capable machine.

But, that's the corporate market. A good many years ago Cisco Systems....or maybe it was Sun Microsystems was envisioning fully web based PC's for the home market. All the apps and storage would be on centralized 'mainframe' type units. What incredible ignorance! The whole point of a home PC is the freedom and flexibility you have to do what you want to do with it and not what some 'pay-per' service will allow you to do. Obviously the market did not respond to the idea. And I don't think it ever will. Its a reality at work...but not at home.

 

[riptides]

Actually, the idea of web centric applications, loaded on-demand is a great idea.

Look at it this way, your running a gigahertz machine, with gigas of hard drive, memory, and in some instances video cards for what?

Mail? Word Processing? PhotoShop? .... Browsing the web?....

Yes, (we) you all have fallen for it hook line and sinker. If I can off-load those applications to a controlled, managed, environment, and use them when I need them on-demand, yes, I'd pay for it. My PC or MAC could then contain only a minimal configuration and I would not need an IT staff to help me with the latest codec or bit flip on a driver update run afoul.

And I do the same at home. All my devices are software mangled from a central source. I have kids that demand a propeller head IT specialist when they want to share their iTunes library off various Zen, iPods, Cell Phones and various PC platforms.......

 

[Egon]

And the disk will disappear too.

 

[dmccarty]

And the disk will disappear too.

And the PC will have turned into a terminal.... A smart terminal but a terminal. Ah how the worm turns.

For people who want an appliance this will work. The system is managed by someone with the skills to do so, the owner does not have to worry about viruses, security, updates, blah blah blah.

Later,
Dan

 

[N80]

Yes, (we) you all have fallen for it hook line and sinker. If I can off-load those applications to a controlled, managed, environment, and use them when I need them on-demand, yes, I'd pay for it. My PC or MAC could then contain only a minimal configuration and I would not need an IT staff to help me with the latest codec or bit flip on a driver update run afoul.

You'd be paying for it on the other end too. There's going to be an IT staff at Big Brother central that has to get a paycheck. So I don't see that working out. And of course it hasn't, which is the proof of the pudding.

Complaining that you bought too much computer for what you do seems like a purchasing mistake and not a flaw in the current PC market. And sure, we buy hot rod PCs just like we buy hot rod cars and tractors that are bigger than our needs too. But, the truth is, the average Joe who wants to download his home movies, add graphics, sound tracks, edits, etc etc and then burn them on a DVD to send to grandma...well....he needs a fair amount of horsepower to do it.

I think most of us here are not of the mindset to have others control what we do, how we do it and when....that's why we have tractors rather than lawn services.

And as far as managing your computer and its software, well, again, I think the tractor analogy applies, if you aren;t going to take the time to learn how to use it and maintain it, all of which is quite complicated, then you're better off paying someone else to do your tractoring.

 

[MossRoad]

When I started at my job, I was hired because I had a degree and experience in motors and motor controllers. I needed those skills to maintain the motors and power supplies in our PDP11's and other computer main frames. We also had several hundred terminals. Depending on your login settings, you would get functions available on your terminal to do your job. We had three spares on a shelf. If someone's terminal barfed, we'd swap and go. 1 minute deal. Then we switched to PCs with 286 processors and terminal emulation software. Then we switched to PCs with 486 processors, terminal emulation AND word processing programs. Then we got internet access, Windows 95, more desktop apps, 98, bigger PCs, NT, 2000, bigger PCs, XP bigger PCs.... longer downtime for software repairs and too many PCs of different configurations to be efficeint.

Jump ahead 21 years....

We just installed some terminal server servers and took all the desktop apps away from the user PCs. The desktops are becoming standardized with XP. Now we can go back to having a few spares on the shelf, 1 minute downtime swaps and only have to maintain the software on a few servers.

I see no end to the desktop PC in the near future. It may get smaller, have fewer moving parts, less software, etc... but there will stll be a box on a users desk. It may fit inside their display, but it will still be there.

 

[Knotbored]

We used to have desktops and terminals too bulky to carry around in cars for repair, and laptops so quirky they spent most time at the repair shops.
The choice was like choosing a bus or a sport car.
I now have a HP Pavilion Slimline that fits on my desk and about 1/2 the size of a normal desktop but has all the bells and whistles I need (and for a reasonable price.)
Its like owning a station wagon..

I think in the future there will be computers the size of a camera, screens that roll out like shelf paper (or perhaps projection) and keyboards that are voice activated not typed in.
We have come a long way since imagining Dick Tracy and his wrist radio.

 

[N80]

I see no end to the desktop PC in the near future. It may get smaller, have fewer moving parts, less software, etc... but there will stll be a box on a users desk. It may fit inside their display, but it will still be there.

Well, it starts to devolve into semantics at some point. Most people wouldn't call one of these tiny, single task terminals a 'PC'. There isn't much 'personal' about it. You might say its personal because its one person to one machine, but that tiny terminal is just an extension of the big machine. It isn't much more than a keyboard.

And if you call anything that sits on top of a desk a 'desktop' then many laptops are really 'desktops'.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but you can see what I mean, right? Good grief, a 17" iMac is more portable than most of the early 'laptops'. All the lines and definitions are getting a bit blurry.

 

[MossRoad]

The subject is the end of the desktop computer. If there is still a computer on the desktop, it has not ended, no matter how small the box. If the employee is allowed to take that computer from place to place to place, making it a portable computer, then it has ended. Its a yes or no question. No blurry lines.