Quality of Electricity Supply....

[Jstpssng]

Here we've pulled most of our dams on major rivers because they're evil... now there's talk about blasting a 145 mile power line corrider through the state so that Massachusetts can have "green" hydro power coming in from Quebec. I'm not for or against it yet I am scratching my head; how are dams bad when they're in Maine, yet environmentally friendly when in Canada? I believe that the answer is spelled "NIMBY."

 

[3930dave]

Big difference between "it adds" and "possibly helps"...... devil in the execution details, I think most of us agree about that .

50+ years ago, we pretty much only had Big Power Generation - that worked well, when we had govts that were focused on providing reliable low cost power. Big projects got done in a timely fashion, and electricity was relatively affordable. Me, I don't have a problem with that model, but realistically, the genie is out of the bottle, both in terms of free-markets, energy costs, and govts ability to fund major projects.

Add resiliency. A lot has changed in 50 years. Today, you can just stroke a cheque, and have a contractor install a turn-key automatic genset. Or a PV array. Or a PV array, with batteries, and choose to go off-grid when you want, or at least have Island capability when the grid is down. At that is just at home.

In the business/industrial world, co-gen or tri-gen has been in place for a long time, and likely won't be displaced. We have lots of distributed power generation sites connected now, from all sorts of sources. Can we readily support the grid from alternate sources, when a major plant goes down ? The answer obviously depends on many factors, at the time of a specific incident.

IMO, having alternate sources of power is useful, whether just at home, or for a grid system. Storage is a factor, that needs to be improved, it will be interesting to see how things go in Oz.

Ensuring reliability is a challenge for any system. One advantage to smaller generation points is if one (or ten) goes down, the impact can be relatively small, IF the system switching is capable.

So, while I do like the relative simplicity of the old Big Power model, I don't think we'll be going back there. If you described to somebody even 30 years ago sitting in your living room and using a cell phone to turn the light across the room on, they'd have laughed. There's been progress here in the last 20 years with distributed power generation, and I think we are only getting started.....

Rgds, D.

 

[hawkeye08]

I read recently that only 3% of the dams in the US generate power...

 

[CobyRupert]

I think what would make the market more "honest", while propelling technological advancement at the consumer level, and making people more conscious of their energy decisions (i.e. less wasteful) would be if EVERYBODY had demand metering as the grid gets more diverse & "dynamic" (i.e.: unstable wind & solar).

What we have now is SOCIALISM!*

That is, when I (who has no air conditioning) pays a flat rate of (say) $0.13/kw-hr, that is the price the utility sets so that they can cover the cost of my fat-*ss lazy neighbor running his AC during peak hours on the hottest days of the year. That is, if I use most of my electricity (off peak) when the utility can buy it for $.05, but my neighbor uses peak electricity when the utility has to buy it for $.20, but they charge us both $.013 to cover the combined average, guess what?: I'm subsidizing my neighbor's usage!

Individual demand metering is the answer.


(*: Not really, sort of, but it's a word that riles TBN'ers :stirthepot

 

[3930dave]

Here we've pulled most of our dams on major rivers because they're evil... now there's talk about blasting a 145 mile power line corrider through the state so that Massachusetts can have "green" hydro power coming in from Quebec. I'm not for or against it yet I am scratching my head; how are dams bad when they're in Maine, yet environmentally friendly when in Canada? I believe that the answer is spelled "NIMBY."

Same mindset there, that leads to pious people driving EVs, w/o regard to how they get recharged.....

I don't agree with shutting down hydro-electric generation. We know better how to design those plants, (as with most other things) compared to Back When, and capturing kinetic energy from water is way cleaner than the PV industry.

Rgds, D.

 

[3930dave]

I read recently that only 3% of the dams in the US generate power...

Given how much of your power is still produced by coal, that's Green Thinking ?

Rgds, D.

 

[3930dave]

I think what would make the market more "honest", while propelling technological advancement at the consumer level, and making people more conscious of their energy decisions (i.e. less wasteful) would be if EVERYBODY had demand metering as the grid gets more diverse & "dynamic" (i.e.: unstable wind & solar).

What we have now is SOCIALISM!*

That is, when I (who has no air conditioning) pays a flat rate of (say) $0.13/kw-hr, that is the price the utility sets so that they can cover the cost of my fat-*ss lazy neighbor running his AC during peak hours on the hottest days of the year. That is, if I use most of my electricity (off peak) when the utility can buy it for $.05, but my neighbor uses peak electricity when the utility has to buy it for $.20, but they charge us both $.013 to cover the combined average, guess what?: I'm subsidizing my neighbor's usage!

Individual demand metering is the answer.


(*: Not really, sort of, but it's a word that riles TBN'ers :stirthepot

I agree with what was done back when, but the Rural Electrification Act (1936) would be considered by most to be more socialist, than free-market . Same was done here, for the right reasons.....

Electricity is an important resource, Then and Now.... the difference today is we have many more options to choose from.

TOU metering - careful what you wish for. Here, it's mostly been used to to greenwash taxes (and other fairy-tale fees) and the real joke is that since most of our heavy industry is gone, as well as much of our light industrial manufacturing, we typically have way more capacity available than we know what to do with.

I'd much sooner have a well run utility, that displays a realistic kwh charge out in the open. TOU can too easily end up being an accounting shell game.....

West Germany (no slouch with technology) took a serious look at TOU metering and decided that it wasn't worth the $billions of dollars required to implement. AND, Green is taken pretty seriously in that country.....

Rgds, D.

 

[CobyRupert]

The reason I see Demand Metering for everybody as being more "honest" and an "engine for innovation" is people would have to use electricity smarter. Given that people are dumb, devices would get smarter, technology would innovate. This would mean jobs.

Imagine a "smart" washing machine that talks to an app on your smart phone. You set the app so it turns on when energy prices fall below some price setpoint, or app predicts best time (using weather forecasts (temps, solar, wind), news from the mid-east (ha ha) etc...).

The REAL REVOLUTION would come when you have an electric car (or some other large energy storage device) and you figure out that you can SELL (say) 25% of its stored charge at PEAK rates even though you bought them at SLUMP rates. Again, your phone app could do this for you, based on settings. You could actually make money.

This would be the start of a revolution on order of what we saw with the desktop computer in the 90's. Look at where that technology evolved to now.
(p.s. 1/2 of all cars sold in Norway in 2018 were electric.)

Right now, I don't see capitalism (the "market") having a good answer (model) on who pays to keep utility lines up and running if 9 out of 10 of your neighbors eventually figure out a way they don't need to buy kw-hrs. You (the 1 out of 10) gets left holding the bag.

 

[Grumpycat]

That is, when I (who has no air conditioning) pays a flat rate of (say) $0.13/kw-hr, that is the price the utility sets so that they can cover the cost of my fat-*ss lazy neighbor running his AC during peak hours on the hottest days of the year. That is, if I use most of my electricity (off peak) when the utility can buy it for $.05, but my neighbor uses peak electricity when the utility has to buy it for $.20, but they charge us both $.013 to cover the combined average, guess what?: I'm subsidizing my neighbor's usage!

There is a lot more than that going on. TVA's incremental cost of generation is $0.015/kWh. Typical cost delivered to consumer is $0.090/kWh or more, depending on the local last-mile utility's expenses. It is the last-mile utility who deals with the power delivery. The top 3 largest expenditures for operating a power utility is 1) time value cost of money, 2) time value cost of money, and 3) labor. Cost of goods is far down the list. Poles and wires add up.

The industry term you are looking for is not "demand metering" but "Time Of Use" or TOU.

 

[Grumpycat]

The REAL REVOLUTION would come when you have an electric car (or some other large energy storage device) and you figure out that you can SELL (say) 25% of its stored charge at PEAK rates even though you bought them at SLUMP rates. Again, your phone app could do this for you, based on settings. You could actually make money.

Not going to happen. EVs use expensive light battery technology. I know Math Is Hard™ but lets try:

Lets say one can purchase a 100 kWh Tesla battery for $25,000. This battery is claimed to last 500,000 miles and the car consumes 0.3 kWh/mile which is 150,000 kWh over the life of the battery. That means it costs $0.1667 per kWh to store. You will lose money selling power to the grid.

You might break even if you buy battery storage based on value. Automobile EV batteries are too expensive.

This would be the start of a revolution on order of what we saw with the desktop computer in the 90's. Look at where that technology evolved to now.
(p.s. 1/2 of all cars sold in Norway in 2018 were electric.)

Hey! Have at it! Knock yourself out!

 

[ultrarunner]

The kW cost varies greatly around the country and 22 to 32 cents per kW when it is all said and done is what I see in the SF Bay Area...

 

[3930dave]

Here's another way to look at TOU......

Let's pretend...... Legislate away most/all of your heavy industry, and much of your smaller-scale manufacturing. Force appliance manufacturers to produce more efficient (but shorter lived) appliances, and set higher insulation standards for residential construction.... yada yada yada......

So..... with significant generating capacity not being used, and a declining demand baseload, how are you going to prop up your revenue stream ? What To Do, What To Do.......

A) Light up some green marketing, and charge premium prices during peak times, then pretend that you are offering consumers an "opportunity" to save money......

The math is pretty simple...... drop by the Electricity Cost thread, and you'll find various posts where people have taken their monthly total bill (before final taxes) under TOU, divided by their monthly kwh usage, and posted their average cents/kwh. TOU was a great way to crank up an exorbitant price increase, via green-washing.....

Getting a huge increase in a essential service cost is bad enough...... but, that's w/o even considering the billions spent to get to TOU.

Almost worth a Quality of Billing thread right there ....

Rgds, D.

 

[3930dave]

The kW cost varies greatly around the country and 22 to 32 cents per kW when it is all said and done is what I see in the SF Bay Area...

Under TOU here, we are close to the middle of that range, so not that far off you.

OK, American cents vs. Canadian cents , but since I earn in Canadian dollars, I can relate.....

Rgds, D.

 

[tjkubota93]

The next best thing to coal fired steam is hydro.

Have yall seen or heard of the hydro units that act as pump motors and pump up a mountain where there is a storage pond, then at peak demand, they drain the pond and the pumps are used as hydro generators?

Thats cool!

All the little piss ant generation is ok if efficient. One major problem is how quickly it can be brought online. It's not quick enough to respond to frequency changes. Might be fast enough for demand.

The fastest small generation is cts. Airplane engines hooked to gen sets. Not efficient.

 

[CobyRupert]

Not going to happen. EVs use expensive light battery technology. I know Math Is Hard but lets try:

Lets say one can purchase a 100 kWh Tesla battery for $25,000. This battery is claimed to last 500,000 miles and the car consumes 0.3 kWh/mile which is 150,000 kWh over the life of the battery. That means it costs $0.1667 per kWh to store. You will lose money selling power to the grid.

You might break even if you buy battery storage based on value. Automobile EV batteries are too expensive.



Hey! Have at it! Knock yourself out!

Your numbers are great, even though math is hard. Using numbers like those, I think we could say with certainty (in 1985) that the personal computer industry will be a complete failure!



It's so strange that I so often see many people in this country (the one that once put a man on the moon) say something cannot be done, it's impossible ("Not going to happen") ; while other countries are actually doing it today!
(Be it energy, or healthcare, or many other issues)

 

[Oaktree]

Here we've pulled most of our dams on major rivers because they're evil... now there's talk about blasting a 145 mile power line corrider through the state so that Massachusetts can have "green" hydro power coming in from Quebec. I'm not for or against it yet I am scratching my head; how are dams bad when they're in Maine, yet environmentally friendly when in Canada? I believe that the answer is spelled "NIMBY."

Yeah, we went thru that a few years ago here in northern N.H. with Northern Pass. Anyone here in the north country that opposed it was labeled a NIMBY by those in Mass. or downstate N.H. who seemed to think it was OK for us to "make a small sacrifice" so they could have "clean, renewable" power.

After a long battle the courts ruled against the project, which is why they're trying to pull the same thing in your state now.

What's ironic is that they probably could have built this project if they'd been willing to bury it the whole route. The utility claimed it would be "too expensive", but they probably spent most of the cost difference in lobbying, PR campaigns and various other schemes to try and bully this project thru.

 

[buickanddeere]

It is good to read stories written from a different point of view than my mindset. Canada has always intrigued me.

Western civilizations may be as fried as the world with electric grids. Time will tell.

We read about businesses in some countries using Power Wall like solutions from Tesla and others. Some are dirt cheap non lithium ion based as well.

My goal is to use hydrogen energy from the sun to power our EV's that we will be getting. Tesla is doing this today to fuel some of their Super Chargers.

The storage of solar power is on the way to becoming dirt cheap because size and weight is a not issue for land owners. Solar panels are becoming more efficient all of the time. Charge up the storage during the day and dump it into the EV's the next early morning so the storage batteries are more depleted so they will charge faster from the hydrogen energy heading their way.

Selling back to the grid could make charging EV's, etc FREE long term perhaps but with a steep up front cost. Using the grid from 11 pm to 5 am is cheaper for some people.

In short I see little factor in the state of the grid today and going full bore on EV usage over time. This is new to most of us today but that is changing. Fear of the unknown can be a factor.

In my mind FEAR stands for False Evidence Appearing Real 80% of the time.

There is no cheap or practical battery storage to operate any city in the summer . Let alone in the winter when the days are short and the days overcast .

 

[buickanddeere]

Your numbers are great, even though math is hard. Using numbers like those, I think we could say with certainty (in 1985) that the personal computer industry will be a complete failure!

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It's so strange that I so often see many people in this country (the one that once put a man on the moon) say something cannot be done, it's impossible ("Not going to happen") ; while other countries are actually doing it today!
(Be it energy, or healthcare, or many other issues)

The problem with the “predictors of more research” is Jay they cherry pick their examples .
Any new tech that is practical and has market demand . There is a steep ramp of improving performance and declining cost . Airplanes, computers , vehicles , microwave ovens for example .
The issue is however as the tech matures the gains hit a knee on the curve . Costs rise much faster than the increase in performance .
The wide eyed in love with the environment and all fossil, industry and vaccines are bad crowd . They don’t want their dream of solar power and electric everything spoiled with facts .
You can research all you want but you will not find more elements on the periodic table or break the laws of physics . For instance the sound barrier was broken seven decades ago . Modern high tech aircraft are still limited by the sound barrier for practical priced flight .

 

[Industrial Toys]

Sometimes in the winter I hear the single phase 4800Volt line going past our place making noise. Put your ear to the wooden pole, and it sounds like some GIANT MACHINE! Very cool!

With hundreds of thousands of things turning on and off, that supply must have a pile of noise and irregularities. Here. Watch what happens when I draw 500 amps to start my ROTOCON!

 

[3930dave]

The next best thing to coal fired steam is hydro.

Have yall seen or heard of the hydro units that act as pump motors and pump up a mountain where there is a storage pond, then at peak demand, they drain the pond and the pumps are used as hydro generators?

Thats cool!

All the little piss ant generation is ok if efficient. One major problem is how quickly it can be brought online. It's not quick enough to respond to frequency changes. Might be fast enough for demand.

The fastest small generation is cts. Airplane engines hooked to gen sets. Not efficient.

One think I like about modern solar (large-scale furnace) designs, is the relative simplicity - once the the steam is generated, everything else that follows is stone-stock-standard utility design. Don't re-invent the wheel.....

Used to work in a building with an airplane engine on the roof. No, I wouldn't want the fuel bill.....

Rgds, D.