Battery based electric vehicles of today and tomorrow.

[DarkBlack]

The Alarming State of the U.S. Electricity Grid | Britannica

 

[DarkBlack]

Replacing the US electric grid could cost $5 trillion - Business Insider

 

[DarkBlack]

The old, dirty, creaky US electric grid would cost $5 trillion to replace. Where should infrastructure spending go?

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Thanks.

Do not feel bad about about your simple math mistake. With all of the fake EV news out there it's not as simple .getting to the facts.

 

[Grumpycat]

The grid is not more than capable now.
Your argument is conveniently oversimplified.

While peakers idle back during nights, they do not have the capacity to charge 278 million US vehicles. On a minor note, many of these are fossil fuel plants, so, so much for having a green plan for EVs

Gee, I didn't know 278 million ICE vehicle fill their tanks from empty to full every day! But for some reason you believe an EV replacement would be driven that much. At 12,000 miles per year the typical EV consuming 300 Wh/mile will use 3600 kWh. Assuming use is primarily on 200 weekdays per year that is 18 kWh per night but only on weekday nights. That will consume unused capacity which the utilities will welcome.

Besides, who cares about green? Only the EV-haters. If green matters then USA coal generated electricity is as clean as gasoline at 30 MPG. If green matters then an EV can trivially move to other sources such as nuclear, solar, hydro, whatever is available. Meanwhile "environmentalists" jump through hoops making excuses to pretend ethanol is solving any problem other than providing pork for corn growers.

You make my point with peakers. They don't run at night because they are not needed. Peakers exist only because other sources such as coal and nuclear have very slow throttle response. Can take a week to reach full output. Peakers are called peakers not "reserve power generators" because they are needed to fill instant demands for short periods of time. This is something Tesla has been working on by providing utility-grade battery storage.

Of probably 100 technical issues, heres a couple:

Forcing 278 million car owners to only charge at night. Think summer vacations, holidays where millions drive long distance and need to day charge. 2nd and 3rd shift workers.

Once again, 278 million ICE drivers do not fill empty tanks to full every day.

Summer vacations, holidays, etc are 1:100 of the vehicles on the road.

Power plants need maintenance shutdowns. Can稚 do that if there痴 a full load at night and additional load during the day. Millions of step down transformers in every neighborhood will see their efficiency drop as the load increases.
Transformer and fuse failure rates will increase with a 278 million car charge load added.

That is not what happiness when a plant shuts down for maintenance.

Crowded neighborhoods and apartments dont have the electric robustness or smart technology yet to charge such a high watt density area.

They have plenty of capacity because the grid was sized for the daytime air conditioner load which is not present at night.

Ive just scratched the surface of hurdles. Like I said the electric grid is not strong enough, and wont be in 10 short years. You cant add a huge load to an existing old system without adding to it and maintain the existing reliability. Its simple math.

It is very simple math and you are trying to make it complicated with false data and false situations.

300 Wh/mile, 12,000 annual miles, is 3600 kWh for an additional average 9.8 kWh/day. That is $1/day around here where my electric bill will fluctuate from under $100/month to over $250 depending on how much the HVAC has to run. A trivial addition.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

https://www.ebay.com/i/143436105904?chn=ps&norover=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-117182-37290-0&mkcid=2&itemid=143436105904&targetid=858536829113&device=c&mktype=pla&googleloc=9014650&poi=&campaignid=2086169716&mkgroupid=85784768581&rlsatarget=aud-622524040958la-858536829113&abcId=1141016&merchantid=138362550&gclid=CjwKCAiAjrXxBRAPEiwAiM3DQka0TPtm60v0PS-juGiHGKdAj2YiuYGALQnYKJKzkEZmPQCy5yMIshoCPyMQAvD_BwE

I found this close up interesting of this Tesla part. It drives home how they get the motor, transmission and final drive of a typical rear drive car in the space between the rear wheels. That is how they save manufacturing time and expense. It sounds like they offer tech support for the shop without Tesla experience and training. Tesla really have reinvented how to build a vehicle.

 

[Grumpycat]

I found this close up interesting of this Tesla part. It drives home how they get the motor, transmission and final drive of a typical rear drive car in the space between the rear wheels. That is how they save manufacturing time and expense. It sounds like they offer tech support for the shop without Tesla experience and training. Tesla really have reinvented how to build a vehicle.

One of those big round cylinders is the motor. The other holds the motor control inverter.

 

[California]

[ebay... Seller Teslamotive ...]

I found this close up interesting of this Tesla part. It drives home how they get the motor, transmission and final drive of a typical rear drive car in the space between the rear wheels. That is how they save manufacturing time and expense. It sounds like they offer tech support for the shop without Tesla experience and training. Tesla really have reinvented how to build a vehicle.

Wow, a search on Teslamotive brings up posts in several media - instagram etc. They are basically an auto wrecking yard with 800+ items listed on Ebay. Plus they sell rebuilt salvage-title cars and battery packs for DIY powerwall builders. Excellent feedback on Ebay, many compliments, only one customer out of 180 ebay sales was dissatisfied. [and I'll bet they made good on that one].

I didn't realize Tesla has such a robust aftermarket, already.

 

[sd455dan]

https://www.ebay.com/i/143436105904?chn=ps&norover=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-117182-37290-0&mkcid=2&itemid=143436105904&targetid=858536829113&device=c&mktype=pla&googleloc=9014650&poi=&campaignid=2086169716&mkgroupid=85784768581&rlsatarget=aud-622524040958la-858536829113&abcId=1141016&merchantid=138362550&gclid=CjwKCAiAjrXxBRAPEiwAiM3DQka0TPtm60v0PS-juGiHGKdAj2YiuYGALQnYKJKzkEZmPQCy5yMIshoCPyMQAvD_BwE

I found this close up interesting of this Tesla part. It drives home how they get the motor, transmission and final drive of a typical rear drive car in the space between the rear wheels. That is how they save manufacturing time and expense. It sounds like they offer tech support for the shop without Tesla experience and training. Tesla really have reinvented how to build a vehicle.

This 2014 "How its Made" has some great shots of the drive unit and how Tesla builds it.



How Its Made Dream Cars Tesla Model S - YouTube

 

[Oaktree]

Besides, who cares about green? Only the EV-haters. If green matters then USA coal generated electricity is as clean as gasoline at 30 MPG. If green matters then an EV can trivially move to other sources such as nuclear, solar, hydro, whatever is available.

Why is everyone who legitimately questions the practicality of EVs a "hater"? Do they have their place? Sure, but I think it's preposterous to think they're going to be what everyone's driving 10 years from now either.

I, for one don't have a 220V 50A drop in my garage, and I'd suspect most others don't either. What about city dwellers who park on the street? Are they supposed to run 6ga extension cords out the window every night? And until recharge time can get somewhat close to what it takes to refuel an ICE vehicle, they're going to be totally impractical on trips.

I found this close up interesting of this Tesla part. It drives home how they get the motor, transmission and final drive of a typical rear drive car in the space between the rear wheels. That is how they save manufacturing time and expense. It sounds like they offer tech support for the shop without Tesla experience and training. Tesla really have reinvented how to build a vehicle.

Meh. We'll see how it works out when they (1) are more than a niche manufacturer of cars for rich people who want to make a statement and (2) show they can make a car profitably.
Not saying it can't/won't happen, but we ain't even close to there yet.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Why is everyone who legitimately questions the practicality of EVs a "hater"? Do they have their place? Sure, but I think it's preposterous to think they're going to be what everyone's driving 10 years from now either.

I, for one don't have a 220V 50A drop in my garage, and I'd suspect most others don't either. What about city dwellers who park on the street? Are they supposed to run 6ga extension cords out the window every night? And until recharge time can get somewhat close to what it takes to refuel an ICE vehicle, they're going to be totally impractical on trips.



Meh. We'll see how it works out when they (1) are more than a niche manufacturer of cars for rich people who want to make a statement and (2) show they can make a car profitably.
Not saying it can't/won't happen, but we ain't even close to there yet.

Good luck finding a new gas/diesel car in 10 years. The $5K premium for an ICE over an EV may be fine by you but some of us go for the best value. You may fine some low prices for used gas cars if they are not automatically crushed like a few years ago.

 

[aczlan]

Good luck finding a new gas/diesel car in 10 years. The $5K premium for an ICE over an EV may be fine by you but some of us go for the best value. You may fine some low prices for used gas cars if they are not automatically crushed like a few years ago.

Cash for clunkers was one of the worst things that has happened to the used car market in the past 50 years. It took a whole bunch of newer cars that would have otherwise passed on to replace really old and junky cars and sent them straight to the junkyard or the scrapper.
The used car market has still not recovered from that around here.

Aaron Z

 

[/pine]

Good luck finding a new gas/diesel car in 10 years. The $5K premium for an ICE over an EV may be fine by you but some of us go for the best value. You may fine some low prices for used gas cars if they are not automatically crushed like a few years ago.

10 years is a pipe dream...without a total game changing development, discovery or technological advancement in storage...battery based EVs will NEVER replace ICE powered vehicles...NEVER..! EVs will replace ICE vehicles etc...but it won't be with batteries as the main source of power...

 

[Gale Hawkins]

This 2014 "How its Made" has some great shots of the drive unit and how Tesla builds it.



How Its Made Dream Cars Tesla Model S - YouTube

WOW! That was 6 years ago also. Elon Musk is clearly driving cars to the next level in all ways. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

10 years is a pipe dream...without a total game changing development, discovery or technological advancement in storage...battery based EVs will NEVER replace ICE powered vehicles...NEVER..! EVs will replace ICE vehicles etc...but it won't be with batteries as the main source of power...

True in 10 years we may have moved past the limits of today's EV's. Since ICE development has ceased and several have announced production stopping mid decade the total game changing development you mentioned may be being fast tracked as we type.

 

[aczlan]

True in 10 years we may have moved past the limits of today's EV's. Since ICE development has ceased and several have announced production stopping mid decade the total game changing development you mentioned may be being fast tracked as we type.

Might want to rethink your sources. Ford just came out with a new gas engine (the 7.3L), GM just came out with a new 5.5L V8 for the C8 Corvette, Polaris just released a new engine for it's Slingshot, FCA and Cummins bumped the horsepower in the Cummins in there RAM trucks to 1000ft/lb of torque.
There is ICE development happening, no it's not as fast as what is happening in the electric-car world but that's because it's far more mature system so they're past the easy 80% gains and they're into the expensive 20% of the gains that cost you 80% of the time and money to get to.
What I do see is a lot of vehicles going forward will have a power plant option to be electric and manufacturers will have a drop-in electric power plant and battery pack that will replace the ICE drivetrain and fuel tank.

Aaron Z

 

[drssg]

Good luck finding a new gas/diesel car in 10 years. The $5K premium for an ICE over an EV may be fine by you but some of us go for the best value. You may fine some low prices for used gas cars if they are not automatically crushed like a few years ago.

How old are you? I bet you a dollar that ICE vehicles will absolutely still be available in ten years.

I'm not an EV nay sayer, and I can even envision buying one as a second vehicle, but there are so many obstacles to overcome before it is even feasible to replace ALL ICE vehicles with EVs. Personally, I have NO intention of replacing my car, truck, and motorcycle in the next ten years.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

How old are you? I bet you a dollar that ICE vehicles will absolutely still be available in ten years.

I'm not an EV nay sayer, and I can even envision buying one as a second vehicle, but there are so many obstacles to overcome before it is even feasible to replace ALL ICE vehicles with EVs. Personally, I have NO intention of replacing my car, truck, and motorcycle in the next ten years.

69

Volvo and VW are the only two I know that claim to be getting out of the ICE business at this time within the next 5 years. 2030 and 2040 are the more common dates.

European countries banning fossil fuel cars and switching to electric

Zero-Emission Vehicles Act would eliminate gas-powered U.S. car sales - Curbed

Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles - Wikipedia

France sticks to planned ban on gas and diesel cars by 24

Gas and diesel cars will become more expense in the EC due to green tax laws. In the next 1-5 years we are going to change leadership in the USA and the CA limits may be moving east down the road. Gas and diesel cars will just get priced/taxed out of the market place over time I expect. It may be 2030 before Tesla can produce 10 million cars a year. Currently world wide annual new car sales are 70-80 million so there is NO way to get there fast. We need something besides hydrogen and lithium batteries to make those numbers. With Robo taxis the sale of new cars may drop like a rock per some pushing the coming auto self driving vehicles.

EU Auto Makers Have to Sell More Electric Cars as New Emission Targets Loom - WSJ

 

[sd455dan]

Cash for clunkers was one of the worst things that has happened to the used car market in the past 50 years. It took a whole bunch of newer cars that would have otherwise passed on to replace really old and junky cars and sent them straight to the junkyard or the scrapper.
The used car market has still not recovered from that around here.

Aaron Z

I Agree,
and remember the wrecking yards were upset to.

It was a real shame that a person could have the same model car/truck with a worn out engine and try and buy a low mileage "clunker" and instead they were required to crush perfectly good drivetrains.

At a minimum there should have been a provision for a high mile engine to be replaced with a low mile clunker engine.

I have absolutely no doubt there are some oil burning gas engine cars and trucks that could have had the emissions greatly reduced but instead the replacement used engines were crushed and melted down.

 

[Gale Hawkins]

Might want to rethink your sources. Ford just came out with a new gas engine (the 7.3L), GM just came out with a new 5.5L V8 for the C8 Corvette, Polaris just released a new engine for it's Slingshot, FCA and Cummins bumped the horsepower in the Cummins in there RAM trucks to 1000ft/lb of torque.
There is ICE development happening, no it's not as fast as what is happening in the electric-car world but that's because it's far more mature system so they're past the easy 80% gains and they're into the expensive 20% of the gains that cost you 80% of the time and money to get to.
What I do see is a lot of vehicles going forward will have a power plant option to be electric and manufacturers will have a drop-in electric power plant and battery pack that will replace the ICE drivetrain and fuel tank.

Aaron Z

I agree with your points. I think the makers of these new gas engines did not realize how fast EV technology was going to bite the ICE business or the carbon tax factors. Because the old line companies chose to not lead in the EV market in a meaningful after having a 20 year head start means they are helping to fuel Tesla's expansion plans internationally. I am concerned Ford may not be around come 2040 due to old factories and the dealership model. Even GM and Ford buyers no longer need a 100-1000 cars and trucks to look at to make a buying decision and the sales staff would be better replaced with more finance staff. When I bought my 2016 Leaf last Oct I had my money with me but still had to wait 3 hours to leave the dealership because the one finance guy was back logged with sales from that day.

EV power sources is the main thing that is holding up EV sales today. The new China Tesla factory is ready to build 3000 cars a week but their outside battery source can only get out 1000 battery packs a week.

Tesla sold carbon-emissions credits to General Motors and Fiat Chrysler - Business Insider